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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jai Serong is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 70%, for a model edge of +0.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:05PM UTC
AFL

Jai Serong

Sydney Swans

+0.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -233 (1.43)
+0.6% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul, 9:40AM
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Model Probability
70.6%
Implied Probability
69.9%
Model Edge
+0.6%
Predicted Value
18.2 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.6%—69.9%1.42+0.6%

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AI Analysis

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Jai Serong (Sydney Swans) Over 15.5 Disposals (-233)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop in the AFL, Jai Serong is a prime target for hitting over 15.5 disposals against the Adelaide Crows at the SCG. His last five home games showcase his consistent form, averaging an impressive 20.2 disposals, with a solid disposal efficiency of 76.4%. The young gun is a possession machine, racking up 10.4 kicks and 9.8 handballs on average in his recent home matches. With an average of 4.2 intercepts and 273.2 meters gained per game, Serong is not just a ball magnet but a playmaker who can turn defense into attack swiftly. Adding to this, his current hit streak of 5 at home indicates he's in a rhythm that's hard to ignore. Bet on Serong to surpass 15.5 disposals and be a pivotal figure in the Swans' midfield battle.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
7.6avg disposals recent
Season best15
Disposals last 10avg 7.6 · hi 15 · lo 0
9406151121478

Jai Serong has a disposals high of 15 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals 15.5 Over -233 ✗ MISS
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals 14.5 Over -333 ✗ MISS
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 15.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
13 Jun 26 Sydney Swans @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals — — — Pending
13 Jun 26 Sydney Swans @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jai Serong (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jai Serong is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.6% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans on Friday 17 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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