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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jai Serong is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 83 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 83%, implied 82%, edge +0.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 11:37PM UTC
AFL

Jai Serong

Sydney Swans

+0.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -455 (1.22) · $100→$122
+0.8% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
83 in 100
Predicted
18.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 82.7% · the book's price implies 82.0% · gap +0.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.7%82.0%1.21+0.8%

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AI Analysis

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Jai Serong (Sydney Swans) Over 13.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Jai Serong's recent form playing at home, it's clear he's been a midfield force for the Sydney Swans. Averaging 19.4 disposals per game in his last five home matches, Serong has been a reliable ball-winner. His high disposalefficiency at 75.9% showcases his ability to make possessions count. Against Port Adelaide, he's been even more dominant, averaging 11.3 disposals in their last five encounters. With an overall average of 13.2 disposals, Serong consistently hits the mark. Given his recent performance and matchup history, backing Serong to surpass 13.5 disposals at home seems like a solid bet. His ability to find space, win contested possessions, and generate metres gained make him a key player to watch in this upcoming clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Jai Serong averaged 8.4 disposals, 0.0 goals and 2.2 marks per game across 5 games in 2024.

8.4
Disposals
0.0
Goals
2.2
Marks
2.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Jai Serong recorded 8 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide8014
19 May 24Port Adelaide7026
11 May 24St Kilda14033
28 Apr 24Sydney Swans2010
21 Apr 24North Melbourne11040
26 Aug 23Fremantle15070
20 Aug 23Melbourne6013
21 Aug 22Western Bulldogs0000
14 Aug 22Richmond4122
6 Aug 22Gold Coast SUNS9033
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 13.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 14.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 15.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Jai Serong (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jai Serong is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.8% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 8 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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