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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jai Serong is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 83%, versus the book's implied 82%, for a model edge of +0.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:43PM UTC
AFL

Jai Serong

Sydney Swans

+0.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -455 (1.22) · $100→$122
+0.8% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
82.7%
Implied Probability
82.0%
Model Edge
+0.8%
Predicted Value
18.2 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.7%82.0%1.21+0.8%

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AI Analysis

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Jai Serong (Sydney Swans) Over 13.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Jai Serong's recent form playing at home, it's clear he's been a midfield force for the Sydney Swans. Averaging 19.4 disposals per game in his last five home matches, Serong has been a reliable ball-winner. His high disposalefficiency at 75.9% showcases his ability to make possessions count. Against Port Adelaide, he's been even more dominant, averaging 11.3 disposals in their last five encounters. With an overall average of 13.2 disposals, Serong consistently hits the mark. Given his recent performance and matchup history, backing Serong to surpass 13.5 disposals at home seems like a solid bet. His ability to find space, win contested possessions, and generate metres gained make him a key player to watch in this upcoming clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
7.6avg disposals recent
Season best15
Disposals last 10avg 7.6 · hi 15 · lo 0
9406151121478

Jai Serong has a disposals high of 15 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 13.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 14.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 15.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Jai Serong (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jai Serong is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.8% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 8 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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