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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jai Serong is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 64 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 64%, the price says 71%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 6:37AM UTC
AFL

Jai Serong

Sydney Swans

Value call

Jai Serong (Sydney Swans) has one live pick today: Marks Over 2.5 that pays $140 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 2.5 -250 (1.40) · $100→$140
Value call
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 18 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
64 in 100
Predicted
3.9 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 64.3% · before adjusting for past results 76.0% · the book's price implies 71.4% · gap -7.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks76.0%64.3%71.4%1.56+4.6%

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Jai Serong Over 2.5 Marks (-250)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Jai Serong has been playing well lately, and he faces a solid Sydney Swans team that has been good at keeping the game flowing. The Swans have won 7 of their last 10 matches, often scoring big before half-time. This might give Serong a chance to rack up over 2.5 marks as he finds space to work against their defense. While both teams have a good recent record, Fremantle has also been winning consistently. That said, the Swans often control the game, which could limit opportunities for Serong. Still, our numbers show this bet has a strong chance.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Jai Serong averaged 8.4 disposals, 0.0 goals and 2.2 marks per game across 5 games in 2024.

8.4
Disposals
0.0
Goals
2.2
Marks
2.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Jai Serong recorded 8 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide8014
19 May 24Port Adelaide7026
11 May 24St Kilda14033
28 Apr 24Sydney Swans2010
21 Apr 24North Melbourne11040
26 Aug 23Fremantle15070
20 Aug 23Melbourne6013
21 Aug 22Western Bulldogs0000
14 Aug 22Richmond4122
6 Aug 22Gold Coast SUNS9033
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 15.5 Over -217 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 14.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 13.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Marks Pending
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals Pending
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Jai Serong (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jai Serong is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.6% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Friday 18 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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