Patrick Dangerfield Under 15.5 Disposals (Geelong Cats)
Probability
72.2%
Edge
17.9%
Best Odds
-119
Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats) Under 15.5 Disposals (-119)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Patrick Dangerfield's recent performance, especially at home, suggests he may struggle to reach 15.5 disposals. With a model prediction of 12.5 and a significant 17.9% edge, his L5 home disposals average of 14.6 falls below the line. Additionally, his L5 stats against Brisbane show an average of 18.4 disposals, still under the line. Despite his overall form, his L5 turnovers averaging 3.2 could hinder his possession accumulation. With a solid 73.7% disposal efficiency but facing a tough opponent, betting on Dangerfield to go under 15.5 disposals seems a sensible choice for this AFL matchup at the MCG.
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Goals
Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats) Over 1.5 Goals (-333)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jeremy Cameron is on fire with a 5-game goal streak at home, averaging 4.6 goals per game in his last 5 home matches. Facing Brisbane, he has been consistent with a 5-game goal streak overall. His recent stats show he is hitting form, scoring an average of 5 goals in his last 5 games overall. With an average of 7.4 shots at goal per game and a solid home goal accuracy of 68.5%, Cameron is primed to capitalize on his opportunities. The model's prediction of 2.8 goals, with a 17.8% edge, suggests a high likelihood of him snagging more than 1.5 goals in this matchup, making this bet on Cameron to score over 1.5 goals a compelling choice.
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Goals
Logan Morris (Brisbane Lions) Over 1.5 Goals (-152)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Logan Morris is a solid bet for Over 1.5 goals. His recent performance metrics, including a high goal average of 3.4 in away games and 56.4% goal accuracy, indicate he's in top form. With an average of 5 shots at goal and 3.4 marks inside 50 in away games, he consistently positions himself for scoring opportunities. Facing Geelong Cats, where he averages 3.5 goals in away matchups, Morris is likely to continue his scoring streak. His current hit rate of 4/5 away games and a 2-game hit streak further support this bet. The model's prediction of 2.1 goals with a 16.7% edge adds confidence to Morris surpassing the 1.5 goal line.
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 24.5 Disposals (-156)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Max Holmes is poised to shine in this matchup against the Brisbane Lions at the MCG. With a model-predicted 27.9 disposals and a solid hit rate, his recent form is impressive. In his last five home games, Holmes has averaged 31 disposals, surpassing the 24.5 line comfortably. Additionally, his high disposalefficiency of 71.4% and ability to cover the ground with an average of 696.4 meters gained further support this bet. Considering his consistent performance, current hit streaks, and the opponent's vulnerability to his disposals, backing Max Holmes to exceed 24.5 disposals offers a high probability of success.
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Goals
Shaun Mannagh (Geelong Cats) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-286)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Shaun Mannagh presents a solid opportunity to snag a goal in the upcoming Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions clash at the MCG. With a model predicting him to score 1.4 goals and boasting a recent average of 1.4 goals in his last five home games, Mannagh's goal-scoring form is evident. His accuracy of 40.0% and involvement in the forward line with an average of 5.2 inside 50s and 1.4 marks inside 50 further support this bet. Considering his recent performance against the Lions, averaging 0.5 goals, Mannagh's consistent scoring trend and the home advantage make him a strong candidate to split the middle and hit the scoreboard.
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Spread
Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions : Geelong Cats -6.5 (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Geelong Cats are favored to cover the spread due to their dominant recent form. With an average margin of 63.2 and 123.6 points scored in their last five games, they outshine Brisbane Lions, who struggle on the road with a modest 5.6 average margin and 85.2 points scored. Geelong's strong inside 50s (61.6) and shots at goal (37.6) also indicate their ability to control the game. In contrast, Brisbane's lower numbers in these key areas (56 inside 50s, 27.4 shots at goal) suggest they may struggle against Geelong's solid defense. The model's prediction aligns with Geelong's recent high-scoring performances, making them a solid bet to cover the -6.5 spread against Brisbane Lions at the MCG.
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Goals
Tyson Stengle (Geelong Cats) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-417)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Tyson Stengle is a solid bet to score anytime in the upcoming Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions game due to his recent form and matchup history. Stengle's average of 1.6 goals in his last five home games, coupled with a favorable goal accuracy of 41.3% and 5.8 score involvements per game, make him a consistent threat in front of goal. With a solid average of 3.8 shots at goal in his last five home games, Stengle is actively involved in creating scoring opportunities. Additionally, his average of 1 goal in his last five matchups against Brisbane Lions further supports his scoring potential in this game. Considering the model's prediction of 1.7 goals for Stengle, the data indicates a strong likelihood for him to snag a goal, making this bet appealing.
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Goals
Cam Rayner (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-312)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Cam Rayner is a strong bet to score anytime against Geelong Cats based on his recent form. With an average of 2.4 goals in his last 5 away games and a solid goal accuracy of 61.3%, Rayner has been consistently impactful. He also averages 4.4 shots at goal and 5.4 score involvements per game, indicating his active presence in the attacking zone. Facing Geelong Cats, against whom he has scored an average of 1.5 goals in their past encounters, further strengthens his chances. The model's prediction of 1.4 goals aligns well with his recent performance, suggesting a high probability of him hitting the back of the net, making him a reliable choice for this bet.
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Goals
Shannon Neale (Geelong Cats) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-667)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Shannon Neale from the Geelong Cats is a solid bet to score anytime against the Brisbane Lions, given his recent form. With an average of 2 goals in his last 5 home games and a goal accuracy of 50%, Neale consistently makes an impact inside 50, averaging 3 marks and 1.6 inside 50s at home. His involvement in scoring plays is evident, with an average of 6.8 score involvements per game. Against the Brisbane Lions, he has a strong average of 0.5 goals in their last 5 encounters. Overall, Neale's goal-scoring prowess, supported by his recent performance metrics, makes him a reliable choice to snag a goal in this matchup at the MCG.
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Goals
Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-303)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Patrick Dangerfield is a solid bet to score anytime due to his recent form. With an average of 1 goal in his last 5 home games and 1.2 goals overall, he consistently finds the big sticks. His goal accuracy of 36.7% and involvement in 8 scoring plays per game show his impact. Against Brisbane, he averages 0.8 goals at home and 1 goal overall, indicating his scoring potential. Given his recent performance and the matchup, where he is expected to snag at least 1 goal according to the model's 1.3 prediction with a 9.0% edge, betting on Dangerfield to score anytime is a statistically sound choice.
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Goals
Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-385)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Zac Bailey is a strong bet to snag a goal in the Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions matchup at the MCG. With a solid 1.2 average goals in his last 5 away games and an overall 1.4 average, Bailey's recent form is promising. His consistent involvement in scoring opportunities, averaging 6.6 score involvements and 3.6 shots at goal per game, showcases his goal-scoring potential. Additionally, his 37.5% goal accuracy, although slightly lower, is still respectable. Facing Geelong, where he has previously averaged 0.8 goals, Bailey's track record against this opponent adds confidence to this bet. With a model prediction of 1.4 goals and an 8.2% edge, backing Bailey to score anytime is a statistically sound choice.
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Goals
Kai Lohmann (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-233)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Kai Lohmann presents a strong case to score anytime against Geelong Cats based on his recent performance indicators. With an average of 0.8 goals in his last five away games and a solid goal accuracy of 35.0%, Lohmann has been consistently involved in scoring opportunities, averaging 2.6 shots at goal and 4.4 score involvements per game. Facing Geelong, against whom he averages 1.5 goals in their previous encounters, Lohmann's overall goal average of 1.6 further supports his scoring potential. This, combined with his recent form and the model's prediction of 1.1 goals, indicates a high likelihood of Lohmann hitting the scoreboard, making the Over 0.5 goals bet a favorable choice.
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Jaspa Fletcher (Brisbane Lions) Over 19.5 Disposals (-192)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jaspa Fletcher's consistent form, especially in away games, makes him a strong pick to surpass 19.5 disposals against Geelong. With a solid average of 23.8 disposals in his last five away games and a trend of hitting 11/11 in away matches, Fletcher's recent performances highlight his ability to meet this line. His high contested possessions and efficient disposal rates further support this bet, along with his above-average kicks and meters gained. Facing an opponent where he averages 20 disposals, Fletcher's overall hit rate of 7/7 adds confidence to this wager. These factors, combined with his current form and matchup history, suggest that Fletcher is poised to continue his strong disposals trend on the road.
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 19.5 Disposals (-833)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Max Holmes is a solid bet to surpass 19.5 disposals against the Brisbane Lions at the MCG. With a model prediction of 27.9 disposals and an impressive 6.1% edge, Holmes has been in excellent form, averaging 31 disposals in his last 5 home games. His recent statistics show a consistent performance with high disposals, contested possessions, and kicks, indicating his involvement in Geelong's midfield play. Additionally, his exceptional home hit streak of 9 games and overall hit streak of 6 games further support his reliability in meeting or exceeding this line. With his strong recent form, home advantage, and consistent output, Holmes is poised to continue his disposals dominance against the Lions.
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions) Over 19.5 Disposals (-588)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Lachie Neale, with a model-predicted 26.2 disposals and a 5.6% edge, is poised to shine against the Geelong Cats. His recent form is solid, averaging 28.4 disposals in away games. Neale's consistency is evident with a 5-game hit streak, maintaining an impressive 31.2 disposals on average. Facing Geelong, he historically averages 24.5 disposals. With a current hit streak of 3 in away games and an overall hit rate of 5/5, Neale's reliability supports the bet on him surpassing 19.5 disposals. His ability to find the ball, coupled with his recent performance trends, makes him a strong contender to exceed this line at the MCG.
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Gryan Miers (Geelong Cats) Over 19.5 Disposals (-213)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Gryan Miers is poised to shine in the Disposals Over market against Brisbane Lions. With a strong model prediction of 22.6, a 5.1% edge, and recent form backing him up, Miers has been averaging 24.4 disposals in his last five home games. His consistency is evident with a 4-game hit streak at home, hitting his disposal mark each time. Facing Brisbane, whom he has averaged 20.5 disposals against in his last five matchups, Miers' stats look even more promising. His ability to find the footy and maintain a high disposal efficiency of 73.6% at home further supports this bet. Trust in Miers' form and matchup advantage for a solid wager on him surpassing 19.5 disposals.
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Goals
Callum Ah Chee (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-238)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Callum Ah Chee is poised to snag a goal in the upcoming Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions matchup due to his recent form. With his 0.6 goals per game average in away matches and 1.3 goals per game against Geelong in the last five encounters, Ah Chee's ability to find the goals is promising. His 21.7% goal accuracy and average of 2 shots at goal per game provide a solid foundation for this bet. Additionally, his 3.8 score involvements and 2.2 inside 50s per game suggest he is actively involved in Brisbane's forward plays, boosting his chances to hit the scoreboard. With a model prediction of 1 goal for this game, Ah Chee's consistent performance makes him a favorable choice to back for an anytime goal.
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Connor O'Sullivan (Geelong Cats) Over 9.5 Disposals (-256)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Connor O'Sullivan is a solid pick for the Over 9.5 disposals against Brisbane Lions at the MCG. With an impressive L5 average of 12 disposals and a hit streak of 7 at home, he consistently performs well in contested possessions (4.6), kicks (7.6), and meters gained (221.6). Additionally, his high disposalefficiency (79.8%) and low turnovers (2) make him a reliable ball handler. Facing a team where he averages 16 disposals in L5 matchups, O'Sullivan's overall hit rate of 12/12 boosts confidence in this bet. The model's prediction of 12.8 disposals further supports his ability to surpass the 9.5 line, making this a statistically sound choice for AFL betting enthusiasts.
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Jarrod Berry (Brisbane Lions) Over 14.5 Disposals (-588)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jarrod Berry is a reliable performer, especially on the road, averaging 21.8 disposals in his last five away games. Facing Geelong, he maintains a consistent 21.5 disposals per game. With a current hit streak of 7 away games and 12 overall, Berry's form is solid. His recent stats show proficiency with a 76.8% disposal efficiency and significant involvement with 9.4 handballs and 12.4 kicks per game. The model's prediction of 20.4 disposals, coupled with a low standard deviation of 5, indicates a high probability of exceeding the 14.5 disposal line. Considering his form, consistent performance, and matchup data, betting on Jarrod Berry to go over 14.5 disposals against Geelong is a sound choice.
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Bailey Smith (Geelong Cats) Over 24.5 Disposals (-714)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Bailey Smith's recent form and matchup against Brisbane Lions support betting on him to exceed 24.5 disposals. With a model prediction of 30.9, indicating a 2.4% edge, and an implied probability of 87.7%, Smith's L5 stats, averaging 29 disposals at home, showcase his consistency. His 5-game hit streak and high overall hit rate further bolster his reliability. Facing Brisbane, against whom he averages 24 disposals, Smith's penchant for contested possessions (10.2 avg) and efficient disposal (64.7% avg) enhances his potential to surpass the line. Playing at home adds to his advantage, making the Over a favorable bet for Bailey Smith's disposals in this AFL matchup.
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Head to Head
Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions : Brisbane Lions Win (+125)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The bet on Brisbane Lions is supported by their recent performance metrics compared to Geelong Cats. Brisbane has shown consistency with a lower average margin against Geelong's higher home margin. Additionally, the Lions have better defensive stats, conceding fewer points on average. Their ability to control clearances and contested possessions gives them an edge in midfield battles. Despite having a slightly lower average points for, Brisbane's efficient use of possessions and shots on goal make them a formidable attacking force. With a solid record in away games and a tighter overall margin, the Lions are positioned to outperform the Cats in this matchup at the MCG.
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Cam Rayner (Brisbane Lions) Over 14.5 Disposals (-238)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Cam Rayner is poised to excel against Geelong Cats based on his recent form. With a strong average of 17.6 disposals in his last five away games, surpassing the 14.5 line seems likely. Despite facing Geelong, where he averages 14.5 disposals, his overall form of 17.4 disposals and 65.9% disposal efficiency make him a consistent performer. Rayner's ability to gain 333.2 meters on average and his recent hit rate of 5 out of 6 away games further support his potential to meet the over. Given his upward trend and the model's prediction of 17.3 disposals, backing Rayner to exceed 14.5 disposals presents a solid betting opportunity.