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Today's AFL Picks — Edge, Probability & Best Odds

Free AFL picks across moneyline, line, totals and player props. Every selection shows the model's probability, the market edge, and readable reasoning — so you bet on numbers, not noise.

AFLCOL vs. ADE 2026-07-23 09:30
Show Picks
Jack Crisp Over 18.5 Disposals (Collingwood)
Probability 75.3%
Edge 19.1%
Best Odds -128

Jack Crisp (Collingwood) Over 18.5 Disposals (-128)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player for disposals over, Jack Crisp is the man to watch as Collingwood takes on Adelaide. In his last five away games, Crisp has been a midfield maestro, averaging a hefty 22.4 disposals per game. His recent form against Adelaide also shines bright, with an average of 22.6 disposals in their encounters. What sets Crisp apart is his consistency, boasting an overall disposal average of 18.4. With a current hit streak on the road and a solid 68.3% disposal efficiency, the stage is set for Crisp to showcase his ball-winning prowess. The stats paint a compelling picture for Crisp to not just meet but surpass the 18.5 disposals line, making this a prop bet worth getting behind.

Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 17.4%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 16.2%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 15.7%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 14.4%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 13.0%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 12.7%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.5%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.1%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 10.3%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.8%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.8%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.5%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.1%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.2%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.1%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.0%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.7%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.5%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.3%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.7%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.6%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.4%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 4.4%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Head to Head
Probability
Edge 4.4%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.3%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Goals
Probability
Edge 4.2%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Goals
Probability
Edge 4.0%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.5%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.9%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.9%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.8%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.7%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Goals
Probability
Edge 2.5%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.5%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Goals
Probability
Edge 2.1%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.0%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.8%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.7%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Total Points
Probability
Edge 0.6%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 0.2%
Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies Goals
Probability
Edge 0.0%
AFLGEE vs. MEL 2026-07-24 09:40
Show Picks
Harry Sharp Over 10.5 Disposals (Melbourne)
Probability 82.3%
Edge 18.2%
Best Odds -179

Harry Sharp (Melbourne) Over 10.5 Disposals (-179)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet in the AFL, Harry Sharp stands out as a prime candidate for a big night on the field. Playing at the iconic MCG, the stage is set for Sharp to shine in front of the home crowd. Over his last 5 home games, Sharp has been a consistent force, averaging a solid 14.6 disposals per game. With a model prediction of 15.1 disposals for this upcoming game against Geelong, there's a compelling case for Sharp to not only meet but exceed the set line of 10.5 disposals. His ability to cover ground efficiently, gain meters, and contribute in both contested and uncontested possessions makes him a key player to watch. With Sharp's recent form and the statistical edge in his favor, backing him to go over 10.5 disposals is a smart move for punters looking to capitalize on his impact in this clash.

Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Goals
Probability
Edge 17.3%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Goals
Probability
Edge 16.1%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Total Points
Probability
Edge 15.7%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.8%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 11.6%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 10.5%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 10.3%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.1%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 9.8%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 9.8%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 9.5%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.4%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Goals
Probability
Edge 9.2%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Goals
Probability
Edge 8.5%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 8.5%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 7.9%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.2%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.9%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Head to Head
Probability
Edge 6.0%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.9%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 5.4%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.8%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Goals
Probability
Edge 3.2%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.1%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.0%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.8%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Total Points Q2
Probability
Edge 2.4%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Total Points Q4
Probability
Edge 2.4%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.1%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Goals
Probability
Edge 0.1%
AFLWCE vs. FRE 2026-07-24 10:10
Show Picks
West Coast Eagles at Fremantle Dockers: Fremantle Dockers Spread Q2 -10.5
Probability 71.4%
Edge 18.8%
Best Odds -111

Fremantle Dockers vs West Coast Eagles : Fremantle Dockers -10.5 spreads_q2 (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fans, let's dive into this Western Derby showdown between the Fremantle Dockers and the West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium. Recent form paints a vivid picture here. The Dockers have been on fire at home, averaging a comfortable 27.8-point margin in their last five games, scoring an impressive 93.6 points per game while keeping opponents to just 65.8. On the other side, the Eagles have struggled on the road, with a worrying average margin of -23.8 in their last five away games, scoring only 68.2 points and conceding a hefty 92 per game. With the Dockers' strong offensive prowess and the Eagles' defensive vulnerabilities, backing Fremantle -10.5 looks like a savvy play. Expect the Dockers to dominate the midfield battles, rack up the inside 50s, and snag a comfortable victory in this fierce Western Australian rivalry.

Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 18.5%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 18.4%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 17.5%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 17.1%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Goals
Probability
Edge 16.9%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 13.6%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 13.3%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.8%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.7%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.0%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.9%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.6%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.8%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.2%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.9%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.8%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.8%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.1%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.0%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.7%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.1%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Total Points
Probability
Edge 5.9%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.9%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.5%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.5%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Goals
Probability
Edge 5.4%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.1%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.9%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.6%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.1%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.9%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.5%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.5%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.4%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.1%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.8%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.7%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 2.6%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 2.3%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.2%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 2.1%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.0%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.8%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 1.8%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.3%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.6%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.2%
AFLGCS vs. CAR 2026-07-25 03:05
Show Picks
Noah Anderson Over 28.5 Disposals (Gold Coast SUNS)
Probability 72.0%
Edge 17.4%
Best Odds -120

Noah Anderson (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 28.5 Disposals (-120)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to hit the Over on disposals, Noah Anderson of the Gold Coast Suns stands out for their clash against Carlton Blues. In his last five away games, Anderson has been a midfield maestro, averaging a whopping 29.8 disposals per game. With an impressive disposal efficiency of 60.7% on the road and a knack for finding the footy in contested situations, he's been a reliable ball magnet. Against Carlton specifically, Anderson has historically performed even better, averaging 24.2 disposals in their last five encounters. His recent form, coupled with his ability to rack up possessions both uncontested and in the thick of it, makes Anderson a prime candidate to surpass the 28.5 disposal line in this matchup at Marvel Stadium. Don't be surprised to see him dominate the midfield and hit that mark comfortably.

Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 16.7%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 15.3%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 13.1%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.7%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.8%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Total Points
Probability
Edge 11.6%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.0%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.7%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.2%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.0%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Goals
Probability
Edge 8.8%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.6%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.9%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.5%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 7.1%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Spread
Probability
Edge 7.0%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 6.5%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.3%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Goals
Probability
Edge 5.9%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 5.5%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.4%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Goals
Probability
Edge 5.3%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 5.0%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.3%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Head to Head
Probability
Edge 4.2%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.6%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.9%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Spread
Probability
Edge 1.9%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.8%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 1.4%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 1.4%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Goals
Probability
Edge 0.8%
AFLESS vs. HAW 2026-07-25 06:15
Show Picks
Essendon Bombers at Hawthorn Hawks: Hawthorn Hawks Spread Q4 -13.5
Probability 71.3%
Edge 19.0%
Best Odds -110

Hawthorn Hawks vs Essendon Bombers : Hawthorn Hawks -13.5 spreads_q4 (-110)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fans, let's dissect this intriguing clash between the Hawthorn Hawks and the Essendon Bombers at the iconic MCG. The Hawthorn Hawks have been soaring lately, especially at home, where they've been putting on a show. In their last five home games, they've been on fire, averaging a solid 85.8 points for and conceding just 81.4 points against. Not to mention their impressive 57.8 inside 50s per game, showcasing their attacking prowess. On the flip side, the Essendon Bombers have been struggling on the road, with an average margin of -39.2 points in their last five away games. Their meager 40.8 inside 50s per game and 54 points scored on average paint a grim picture. Considering these trends, the Hawks look poised to dominate, making the -13.5 spread for them a tantalizing bet. Expect them to snag goals aplenty and secure a comfortable victory.

Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 18.1%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 17.9%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 14.4%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 13.3%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.3%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.0%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.8%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.6%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.1%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.3%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.7%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.6%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.9%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.7%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.1%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.5%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.5%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Goals
Probability
Edge 3.1%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.1%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.6%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Total Points Q4
Probability
Edge 2.5%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Goals
Probability
Edge 2.5%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Total Points Q2
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.5%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.3%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.9%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Total Points
Probability
Edge 0.8%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
AFLSYD vs. GWS 2026-07-25 06:35
Show Picks
Sydney Swans at Greater Western Sydney Giants: Under Total Points H2 92.5
Probability 73.6%
Edge 19.3%
Best Odds -119

Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Sydney Swans : Under 92.5 totals_h2 (-119)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When the Greater Western Sydney Giants clash with the Sydney Swans at ENGIE Stadium, the stage is set for a defensive battle. The Giants, averaging 103.8 points in their last five home games, face the Swans, conceding 91.4 points in their recent outings. With the Giants' solid defense allowing just 80.4 points on average overall and the Swans struggling to score consistently, this matchup is poised to be a low-scoring affair. Add in the fact that the Swans have only managed to score an average of 84.2 points away from home, and it becomes clear why taking the 'Under 92.5' in the Totals H2 market is a prudent move. Expect both teams to lock horns in a fierce battle, resulting in a total score that stays below the set line.

Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 18.8%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 15.8%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 14.4%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 13.1%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Total Points Q2
Probability
Edge 11.0%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Total Points Q4
Probability
Edge 10.7%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.2%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.8%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.7%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 7.5%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Goals
Probability
Edge 7.3%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Goals
Probability
Edge 7.3%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.8%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 6.6%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.8%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.5%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Goals
Probability
Edge 5.1%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Spread
Probability
Edge 5.0%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.5%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.3%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Goals
Probability
Edge 4.3%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.1%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.8%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.5%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.3%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.1%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Goals
Probability
Edge 3.1%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.1%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 2.9%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.9%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.8%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.6%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.6%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.3%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.3%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.3%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.0%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Goals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.4%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.4%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 0.8%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.5%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.4%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 0.2%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.2%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.1%
AFLRIC vs. WB 2026-07-25 09:40
Show Picks
Richmond Tigers at Western Bulldogs: Richmond Tigers Spread Q3 10.5
Probability 63.7%
Edge 10.5%
Best Odds -114

Western Bulldogs vs Richmond Tigers : Richmond Tigers 10.5 spreads_q3 (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fans, let's dissect this clash between the Western Bulldogs and the Richmond Tigers at Marvel Stadium. The Bulldogs have been holding their ground lately, but let's shift our focus to the Tigers on the road. Richmond has been hungry for points, averaging 71.6 points scored in their last five away matches. On the defensive end, they've been a tough nut to crack, conceding an average of 114.4 points. Now, when we look at their recent form, the Tigers have been bringing the heat, averaging 10.8 goals per game, showing they can snag a few through the big sticks. With the Bulldogs showing a bit of vulnerability in defense, the Tigers might just have what it takes to cover that +10.5 spread in the third quarter. Watch out for the Tigers to roar loud and proud in this one!

Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 10.3%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.7%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 9.7%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Goals
Probability
Edge 9.2%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Total Points
Probability
Edge 9.0%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.2%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 8.1%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 7.6%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.6%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Goals
Probability
Edge 5.2%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.0%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.6%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 4.5%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 4.3%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 3.9%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.6%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 3.3%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.3%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.0%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Goals
Probability
Edge 1.0%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.9%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.7%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Head to Head
Probability
Edge 0.6%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.5%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
AFLPA vs. BRI 2026-07-26 03:10
Show Picks
Port Adelaide Power at Brisbane Lions: Brisbane Lions Spread -37.5
Probability 71.2%
Edge 18.3%
Best Odds -112

Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide Power : Brisbane Lions -37.5 (-112)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The Brisbane Lions are roaring with confidence as they gear up to host the Port Adelaide Power at the Gabba. In their last five home games, the Lions have been nothing short of dominant, boasting an average margin of 16.2 points and a solid defensive record, conceding just 87.4 points per game on their home turf. Their offensive prowess is equally impressive, with an average of 103.6 points scored and 60 inside 50s per game. On the flip side, Port Adelaide has struggled on the road, averaging a margin of -11.6 points and only managing 68.4 points per game. With the Lions' strong home form and Port Adelaide's away woes, backing the Lions to cover the -37.5 spread seems like a tantalizing bet with a high probability of success.

Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 17.0%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 16.7%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Total Points Q4
Probability
Edge 12.5%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Total Points Q2
Probability
Edge 11.9%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 8.1%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 7.7%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.5%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 6.9%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.4%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 4.8%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Goals
Probability
Edge 4.0%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Goals
Probability
Edge 3.9%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.7%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.0%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 2.0%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.1%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.1%
AFLSTK vs. NM 2026-07-26 05:15
Show Picks
Bradley Hill Under 26.5 Disposals (St Kilda)
Probability 72.3%
Edge 18.2%
Best Odds -118

Bradley Hill (St Kilda) Under 26.5 Disposals (-118)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When looking at Bradley Hill's recent away performances, it's clear he's been a key distributor for the Saints, averaging 26.8 disposals over the last five games. However, facing North Melbourne, his historical average drops slightly to 26 disposals. With a line set at 26.5, the data suggests a tough battle for Hill to hit that mark. Despite his solid form, Hill may find it challenging to maintain possession against a tenacious Kangaroos side. His recent turnover average of 4.4 and the Kangaroos' ability to disrupt opposition ball movement could limit his disposals on the day. Considering these factors, the under on Hill's disposals seems like a smart play for this matchup at Marvel Stadium.

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 17.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 14.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 12.2%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.1%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.3%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 8.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 8.1%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Spread
Probability
Edge 6.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Head to Head
Probability
Edge 6.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 5.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 5.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Total Points
Probability
Edge 4.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 3.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 2.1%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 2.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 1.5%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 1.2%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 1.1%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 1.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 0.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 0.7%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 0.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.4%
AFLSYD vs. STK 2026-08-01 03:05
Show Picks
Sydney Swans at St Kilda Saints: Sydney Swans Head to Head
Probability 70.1%
Edge 10.2%
Best Odds -149

St Kilda Saints vs Sydney Swans : Sydney Swans Win (-149)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fans, let's break down why backing the Sydney Swans in the St Kilda Saints vs. Sydney Swans clash is a smart move. The Swans have been spreading their wings lately, soaring with an average margin of -13.2 in their last five games. Their defensive prowess has been stellar, keeping opponents to an average of 91.4 points. With a focus on contested possessions and inside 50s, Sydney's game plan is solid. On the flip side, the Saints have struggled to hold their ground at home, averaging a margin of -3.4 in their last five matches. Their leaky defense has allowed an average of 85.4 points against. When comparing these stats, it's clear that the Swans have the edge in form and defensive solidity. So, expect them to bring the heat and snag a crucial victory at Marvel Stadium.

St Kilda Saints vs. Sydney Swans Spread
Probability
Edge 7.3%
AFLNM vs. HAW 2026-08-01 03:35
Show Picks
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Hawthorn Hawks: North Melbourne Kangaroos Head to Head
Probability 39.0%
Edge 17.9%
Best Odds 375

Hawthorn Hawks vs North Melbourne Kangaroos : North Melbourne Kangaroos Win (+375)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When looking at this Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos matchup, recent trends paint an intriguing picture. The Hawks, despite a decent average margin of 4.4 in their last 5 home games, have shown vulnerability defensively, conceding an average of 81.4 points. On the flip side, the Kangaroos may have struggled on the road lately with a margin average of -23.6, but they've managed to keep their points against lower at 93.6. Considering the Hawks' propensity for turnovers (averaging 72 in their last 5 home games) and the Kangaroos' ability to capitalize on such mistakes, North Melbourne looks poised to exploit these opportunities. With both teams aiming to improve their form, the Kangaroos could snag a victory in this clash at UTAS Stadium.

Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Spread
Probability
Edge 5.1%
AFLGWS vs. PA 2026-08-01 08:35
Show Picks
Greater Western Sydney Giants at Port Adelaide Power: Port Adelaide Power Spread 4.5
Probability 61.9%
Edge 9.2%
Best Odds -111

Port Adelaide Power vs Greater Western Sydney Giants : Port Adelaide Power 4.5 (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fans, let's dive into why backing Port Adelaide Power at +4.5 in the spread market against Greater Western Sydney Giants is a savvy move. The Power, despite recent narrow margins, have been a force at home, peppering opponents with an average of 52 inside 50s and 26.6 shots at goal in their last 5 games. Although their points for might be slightly lower than desired, they have the firepower to trouble the Giants' defense that has been leaking an average of 81 points per game on the road. With the Giants averaging just 46.4 inside 50s away from home, Port Adelaide's offensive pressure should give them opportunities to snag a goal or two, potentially covering that modest 4.5-point spread with ease. Trust in the Power's home dominance to deliver on this line bet.

AFLWCE vs. RIC 2026-08-02 03:10
Show Picks
West Coast Eagles at Richmond Tigers: Richmond Tigers Head to Head
Probability 50.8%
Edge 0.1%
Best Odds -103

Richmond Tigers vs West Coast Eagles : Richmond Tigers Win (-103)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to this clash between the Richmond Tigers and the West Coast Eagles at the iconic MCG, recent form tells an intriguing story. The Tigers, despite some struggles, have shown signs of promise in their last five games. While their average margin sits at -35.4, they've displayed a fighting spirit with an average of 121.6 contested possessions and 48.8 inside 50s. On the scoring front, they've been bagging an average of 8.4 goals per game. On the other hand, the Eagles have been inconsistent on the road, averaging a margin of -24 with 36.2 total clearances and 48 inside 50s. Their defensive record shows that they're conceding an average of 91.4 points per game. With these stats in mind, the Tigers look poised to snag a win in this matchup.

AFLMEL vs. GCS 2026-08-02 05:15
Show Picks
Melbourne Demons at Gold Coast Suns: Melbourne Demons Head to Head
Probability 74.1%
Edge 14.6%
Best Odds -147

Gold Coast Suns vs Melbourne Demons : Melbourne Demons Win (-147)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Recent form clearly favors the Melbourne Demons in their clash with the Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium. The Demons have been on fire, averaging an impressive 25.6-point margin in their last five games, while holding their opponents to just 69.2 points on average. In contrast, the Suns have struggled, with a concerning -32 margin and conceding 97.6 points per game in the same period. Melbourne excels in key areas like clearances (39.6) and inside 50s (58), putting immense pressure on their opponents. With the Suns faltering in these departments, the Demons look set to dominate both offensively and defensively. Backing Melbourne to snag the win here seems like a smart play given their recent form and statistical advantages.

Gold Coast Suns vs. Melbourne Demons Spread
Probability
Edge 0.4%

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Quick answer

What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline (winner), line (spread), totals and player props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface positive-edge selections with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming AFL game with predictions across all major markets. Expand any game to see picks ranked by edge, with probability, best odds, and the model's full reasoning. For the highest-confidence shortlist only, use Best Bets. For player markets, jump to Props.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the outcome wins. A probability of 65% means the model thinks it wins 65 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's implied probability from odds. Positive edge means the model estimates the true chance is higher than what's being priced.

Best Odds Market

The top available decimal odds at the time of calculation. Odds move — always verify at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

AFL pick types — what's on this page?

Market reference
Market What it means Best used for
Moneyline Which team wins the match outright. Simple single bet or a low-risk multi leg.
Line (Spread) Win by more than a handicap margin. When one side is expected to dominate or the game should be close.
Totals Over or under the combined match score. Weather, game pace, defensive matchups and scoring trends.
Player Props Individual stats — disposals, goals, marks. Exploit role changes, matchup edges or recent form streaks.

How to read AFL picks in 4 steps

  1. Find a game. Games are listed in chronological order. Tap "Show Picks" to expand markets and reasoning for that matchup.
  2. Check model probability. This is the model's estimated chance the outcome wins. Compare it against the implied probability from odds to judge value yourself.
  3. Read the edge. Positive edge means the model estimates a higher probability than the bookmaker is pricing. The higher the edge, the more the selection deviates in your favour from market consensus.
  4. Verify best odds. Odds displayed are a snapshot — always confirm at your sportsbook before placing. Line shopping across books on a positive-edge pick compounds your long-run return significantly.
Note: This page shows all model-generated AFL picks. For the curated shortlist of the day's strongest edges, use AFL Best Bets. All betting involves risk — always bet within your limits.
Data first

Model probability, edge, and best odds are shown for every pick — so you judge each selection on numbers rather than feel.

Monte Carlo models

20,000+ simulations per game estimate true outcome probabilities across every major AFL market, updated as odds move daily.

Responsible betting

Picks are informational only. Betting involves risk and variance. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.

AFL Picks FAQ

Quick answers
What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline, line, totals and player props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface positive-edge selections with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

What is the difference between AFL picks and AFL best bets?

AFL Picks shows the full set of model-generated predictions across every market for all upcoming games. AFL Best Bets is a curated shortlist — the subset of picks the model rates as highest confidence and strongest edge for that day. If you want everything, use Picks. If you want the model's top selections only, use Best Bets.

What types of AFL picks are available?

The model generates picks across four major market types: moneyline (match winner), line (handicap spread), totals (over/under combined score), and player props (individual stats such as disposals and goals). Game markets and player markets are displayed together within each matchup, ranked by model edge so the strongest values surface first.

How often are AFL picks updated?

Picks are updated daily and re-run whenever bookmaker odds move significantly. As game time approaches, market liquidity increases and line movement can shift the edge calculation on a pick. Between rounds or when no upcoming games qualify, the page displays a notification and picks return automatically once new market data is available.

What does edge mean on this page?

Edge is the difference between the model's estimated probability and the implied probability calculated from the bookmaker's posted odds. A pick with a model probability of 65% against odds implying 55% has a +10% edge — meaning the model estimates the true likelihood is 10 percentage points higher than the market is pricing. Consistently finding positive-edge selections is the foundation of long-run profitable betting strategy.

Can I use AFL picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes — individual picks can be combined as legs in a multi or same game multi. However, risk compounds with every leg added, so starting with 2–3 high-edge selections is more efficient than building large multis around marginal edges. For structured multi recommendations with combined probability and edge shown, use the AFL Multis page.

Does Bet Better guarantee AFL picks will win?

No. AFL picks are statistical predictions intended to help inform betting decisions — no outcome is ever guaranteed. All betting involves variance and risk; even high-edge selections lose a proportion of the time. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

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