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Today's AFL Picks — Edge, Probability & Best Odds

Free AFL picks across moneyline, line, totals and player props. Every selection shows the model's probability, the market edge, and readable reasoning — so you bet on numbers, not noise.

AFLSTK vs. GEE 2026-07-16 09:30
Show Picks
Callum Wilkie Under 23.5 Disposals (St Kilda)
Probability 71.1%
Edge 17.9%
Best Odds -114

Callum Wilkie (St Kilda) Under 23.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Callum Wilkie, the St Kilda defender, faces a tough challenge away at GMHBA Stadium against the Geelong Cats. Wilkie's recent form, averaging 18.6 disposals in his last five away games, falls just short of the bookies' line of 23.5. Despite a solid 80.9% disposal efficiency, his average of 13.2 kicks and 5.4 handballs might not be enough to reach the line against a strong Geelong midfield. Moreover, in his last five encounters against Geelong, Wilkie has only managed an average of 13.5 disposals. With his overall disposals average at a promising 25.2, recent trends suggest he might struggle to hit the mark against this particular opponent. Considering his hit rate and the matchup dynamics, backing Wilkie to stay under 23.5 disposals seems like a smart play for this Thursday night clash.

Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 15.8%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 13.7%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 13.1%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 12.9%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.7%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 11.7%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.7%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.1%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.7%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 8.4%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 8.4%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.4%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Total Points
Probability
Edge 8.2%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Head to Head
Probability
Edge 7.8%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.4%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 7.4%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 7.3%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.9%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.8%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.2%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.1%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 5.0%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 4.8%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.5%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 3.8%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 3.8%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 3.5%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 3.3%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.0%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.9%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.6%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 2.1%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 1.3%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.2%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.7%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 0.1%
AFLADE vs. SYD 2026-07-17 09:40
Show Picks
Adelaide Crows at Sydney Swans: Sydney Swans Spread -11.5
Probability 70.2%
Edge 17.6%
Best Odds -111

Sydney Swans vs Adelaide Crows : Sydney Swans -11.5 (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The Sydney Swans, flying high on their home turf at the SCG, are looking like a safe bet at -11.5 against the Adelaide Crows. Over their last five home games, the Swans have been dominant, boasting an impressive average margin of 34 points and scoring an average of 112.8 points per game. With their forward line firing on all cylinders, averaging 16.6 target goals per game, they have been relentless in front of the big sticks. On the flip side, the Adelaide Crows have struggled on the road, with a modest average of 88.4 points scored but conceding an average of 72.4 points in their last five away fixtures. With the Swans' ability to generate inside 50s and shots at goal consistently higher than the Crows, it's looking like the Swans have the firepower to cover the spread comfortably and snag a convincing win.

Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Goals
Probability
Edge 12.2%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Goals
Probability
Edge 12.1%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Total Points
Probability
Edge 10.6%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.5%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.5%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.1%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.1%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 8.9%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.9%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.7%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Goals
Probability
Edge 7.1%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Goals
Probability
Edge 6.8%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.8%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 6.4%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Goals
Probability
Edge 6.2%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 6.2%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.9%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.6%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.6%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 5.5%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.5%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Goals
Probability
Edge 5.4%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 5.3%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 5.2%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Goals
Probability
Edge 5.0%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 4.9%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.7%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Goals
Probability
Edge 4.3%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.4%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.4%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.3%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.9%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.6%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.5%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.4%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.2%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Spread
Probability
Edge 2.0%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.8%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.8%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.8%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.8%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.5%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.4%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.4%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Goals
Probability
Edge 1.0%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 1.0%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.5%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.2%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Goals
Probability
Edge 0.1%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.0%
AFLFRE vs. PA 2026-07-18 03:15
Show Picks
Fremantle Dockers at Port Adelaide Power: Over Team Total Points Q1 14.5 (Port Adelaide Power)
Probability 69.5%
Edge 14.5%
Best Odds -122

Port Adelaide Power vs Fremantle Dockers : Over 14.5 team_totals_q1 (-122)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to the Port Adelaide Power taking on the Fremantle Dockers at Adelaide Oval, the numbers paint a promising picture for hitting the Over 14.5 mark in the Team Totals Q1 market. Over their last five home games, the Power have been relentless in attack, averaging 26.4 shots at goal and 10.8 target goals per game. Their offensive prowess, coupled with an average of 49.6 inside 50s at home, suggests they'll come out firing early. On the flip side, Fremantle has shown defensive vulnerabilities on the road, conceding an average of 73.4 points per game in their last five away matches. With Port's scoring form and Fremantle's leaky defense, backing the Power to exceed 14.5 points in the first quarter looks like a smart play for footy punters.

Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Total Points
Probability
Edge 13.8%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 8.6%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.5%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Goals
Probability
Edge 7.4%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 6.9%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.9%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 6.5%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.6%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 4.6%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.9%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.8%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.6%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.4%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.0%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Total Points Q4
Probability
Edge 1.9%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Total Points Q2
Probability
Edge 1.6%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.2%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Goals
Probability
Edge 0.7%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.4%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.4%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.0%
AFLMEL vs. NM 2026-07-18 06:15
Show Picks
Melbourne Demons at North Melbourne Kangaroos: Under Team Total Points H1 40.5 (North Melbourne Kangaroos)
Probability 73.3%
Edge 19.8%
Best Odds -115

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Melbourne Demons : Under 40.5 team_totals_h1 (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Listen up, footy punters! When the North Melbourne Kangaroos clash with the Melbourne Demons at Marvel Stadium, all eyes will be on the Kangaroos' scoring prowess. North Melbourne's recent form shows they've been struggling to find their kicking boots, averaging just 70 points per game over their last five outings. In their last five home games, they've managed just 76 points on average – a far cry from their best. On the flip side, the Melbourne Demons have been stingy on defense, conceding an average of only 69.2 points overall and a mere 91.2 points in their last five away games. With the Kangaroos facing a tough defensive unit and struggling to hit the scoreboard, the smart money is on the 'Under 40.5' in the Team Totals H1 market for North Melbourne. Expect a defensive battle early on in this one!

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 15.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 14.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 13.7%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 12.3%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 11.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 11.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.1%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Goals
Probability
Edge 9.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.1%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Goals
Probability
Edge 9.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 7.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.5%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Goals
Probability
Edge 7.2%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Total Points Q4
Probability
Edge 6.7%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Spread
Probability
Edge 6.1%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Total Points Q2
Probability
Edge 5.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Goals
Probability
Edge 4.3%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.2%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.7%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.5%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.1%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.2%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 0.2%
AFLCAR vs. COL 2026-07-18 09:35
Show Picks
Jack Crisp Over 17.5 Disposals (Collingwood)
Probability 81.2%
Edge 17.9%
Best Odds -172

Jack Crisp (Collingwood) Over 17.5 Disposals (-172)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to consistent ball-winning prowess, Jack Crisp stands tall as a linchpin in Collingwood's midfield. His recent form at the MCG has been nothing short of stellar, averaging a whopping 20 disposals over the last five home games. Crisp's ability to find the footy in contested situations, coupled with an impressive disposal efficiency of 77.2%, makes him a reliable asset in accumulating possessions. Against Carlton, he has historically lifted his game, averaging 21 disposals in their previous encounters. With a current hit streak of six in home games and a model predicting him to reach 21.9 disposals, Crisp looks poised to once again showcase his midfield dominance. Bet on Crisp to surpass the 17.5 disposal line as he continues to be a pivotal figure for the Magpies in this upcoming clash against the Blues.

Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Goals
Probability
Edge 16.4%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Goals
Probability
Edge 14.5%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 14.2%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.9%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Goals
Probability
Edge 12.4%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Spread
Probability
Edge 10.3%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.1%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.5%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.1%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.5%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.0%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.7%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.8%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.8%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.8%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.3%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Goals
Probability
Edge 6.1%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.4%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Goals
Probability
Edge 5.2%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.8%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.8%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Goals
Probability
Edge 4.2%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.1%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 3.5%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.4%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 3.3%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.0%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 3.0%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.9%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.7%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 2.2%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.1%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Head to Head
Probability
Edge 1.5%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.4%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.2%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.0%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.0%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.8%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.5%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Total Points
Probability
Edge 0.5%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 0.5%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.2%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 0.0%
AFLBRI vs. WCE 2026-07-18 10:10
Show Picks
Brisbane Lions at West Coast Eagles: Under Team Total Points Q1 26.5 (Brisbane Lions)
Probability 72.8%
Edge 17.9%
Best Odds -122

West Coast Eagles vs Brisbane Lions : Under 26.5 team_totals_q1 (-122)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When the Brisbane Lions hit the road, they bring a scoring punch that's hard to ignore. Over their last five away games, they've been lighting up the scoreboard, averaging a whopping 113.2 points per game. Their attack is as relentless as ever, boasting an average of 61.2 inside 50s and 35.2 shots at goal during this stretch. In contrast, the West Coast Eagles haven't been the stingiest when defending their home turf, allowing an average of 78.4 points against in their last five home games. With the Lions' offensive firepower and the Eagles' vulnerability at home, the under 26.5 for the Lions' team total in the first quarter seems like a solid play. Even though footy can be unpredictable, these recent trends paint a clear picture of a high-scoring opening quarter.

West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 17.0%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 15.2%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.4%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.4%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.2%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.7%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.8%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.4%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Goals
Probability
Edge 3.3%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.2%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.6%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.2%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.1%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Goals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.4%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.4%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.3%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.2%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Total Points Q4
Probability
Edge 0.6%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Goals
Probability
Edge 0.4%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Total Points Q2
Probability
Edge 0.3%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.2%
AFLHAW vs. RIC 2026-07-19 03:10
Show Picks
Rhyan Mansell Over 0.5 Goals (Richmond)
Probability 82.7%
Edge 14.7%
Best Odds -213

Rhyan Mansell (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-213)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at the upcoming clash between the Richmond Tigers and the Hawthorn Hawks, all signs point to Rhyan Mansell snagging a goal and hitting the Over 0.5 mark. Mansell has been a consistent threat in front of the big sticks, averaging 1 goal over his last 5 home games and maintaining an impressive overall goal accuracy of 51.7%. His recent form shows an average of 1.6 goals per game, indicating his ability to impact the scoreboard regularly. Moreover, facing off against the Hawks, Mansell has historically found success, averaging 0.5 goals per game against them. With a solid track record of 6 hits in his last 7 home games and 7 hits in his last 8 overall games, it's clear that Mansell is in a prime position to split the middle and contribute to the Tigers' scoreboard this weekend at the MCG.

Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Total Points
Probability
Edge 12.6%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Goals
Probability
Edge 9.6%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Goals
Probability
Edge 8.5%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 7.9%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 6.8%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 6.6%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.0%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.8%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 4.5%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.3%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.8%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.9%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Goals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Total Points Q2
Probability
Edge 1.2%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Total Points Q4
Probability
Edge 0.9%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.8%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.8%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.7%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.6%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.5%
AFLWB vs. GCS 2026-07-19 05:15
Show Picks
Western Bulldogs at Gold Coast Suns: Western Bulldogs Spread 2.5
Probability 72.1%
Edge 19.2%
Best Odds -112

Gold Coast Suns vs Western Bulldogs : Western Bulldogs 2.5 (-112)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When looking at this clash between the Gold Coast Suns and the Western Bulldogs, the recent form points towards a tantalizing bet on the Western Bulldogs at +2.5. The Suns have struggled at home, with a meager average margin of 1.4 in their last five home games. Their defensive frailties are evident, conceding an average of 88.2 points in those matches. On the other hand, the Bulldogs have been more resilient on the road, with a narrow average margin of -1. Combine this with their ability to restrict opponents to just 70.2 points per game away from home, and it paints a picture of a team capable of not just covering the spread but potentially securing a comfortable victory. Back the Bulldogs to not just cover but snag a crucial win in this intriguing matchup at People First Stadium.

Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 18.8%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 17.8%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Head to Head
Probability
Edge 16.4%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 16.3%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 14.7%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 13.7%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 12.7%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 11.1%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.1%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Total Points
Probability
Edge 9.0%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.9%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Goals
Probability
Edge 8.4%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.4%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Goals
Probability
Edge 8.0%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.9%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 7.5%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 7.2%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.0%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 6.9%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 6.5%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 6.3%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.9%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.3%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Goals
Probability
Edge 5.0%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 4.1%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 4.1%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Goals
Probability
Edge 3.8%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 3.7%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 3.2%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Goals
Probability
Edge 1.5%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.0%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.6%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.2%
AFLGWS vs. ESS 2026-07-19 06:40
Show Picks
Connor Idun Under 22.5 Disposals (GWS GIANTS)
Probability 70.2%
Edge 19.7%
Best Odds -102

Connor Idun (GWS GIANTS) Under 22.5 Disposals (-102)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to the Essendon vs. GWS clash, Connor Idun is the man to watch for the Under 22.5 disposals bet. Despite recent solid form, averaging 22 disposals over the last five away games, the numbers suggest he may fall just short this time. With an average of 5.6 contested possessions and 12.8 kicks in away games, he's been a key player for GWS. However, facing off against Essendon, where he averages just 18 disposals in the last five encounters, could prove challenging. Idun's recent turnover average of 3.2 per game also raises concerns. While he's shown consistency, the data hints at a potential dip in his disposal count this round. Bet smart on Idun going under 22.5 disposals in this showdown.

Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 18.7%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 18.7%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Total Points
Probability
Edge 18.6%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 18.3%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 15.5%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 13.0%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.4%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.8%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.6%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 11.5%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.9%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 10.4%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.1%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.1%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 8.9%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.8%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.6%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.6%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.6%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Total Points Q4
Probability
Edge 4.5%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Total Points Q2
Probability
Edge 4.0%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.5%

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Quick answer

What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline (winner), line (spread), totals and player props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface positive-edge selections with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming AFL game with predictions across all major markets. Expand any game to see picks ranked by edge, with probability, best odds, and the model's full reasoning. For the highest-confidence shortlist only, use Best Bets. For player markets, jump to Props.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the outcome wins. A probability of 65% means the model thinks it wins 65 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's implied probability from odds. Positive edge means the model estimates the true chance is higher than what's being priced.

Best Odds Market

The top available decimal odds at the time of calculation. Odds move — always verify at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

AFL pick types — what's on this page?

Market reference
Market What it means Best used for
Moneyline Which team wins the match outright. Simple single bet or a low-risk multi leg.
Line (Spread) Win by more than a handicap margin. When one side is expected to dominate or the game should be close.
Totals Over or under the combined match score. Weather, game pace, defensive matchups and scoring trends.
Player Props Individual stats — disposals, goals, marks. Exploit role changes, matchup edges or recent form streaks.

How to read AFL picks in 4 steps

  1. Find a game. Games are listed in chronological order. Tap "Show Picks" to expand markets and reasoning for that matchup.
  2. Check model probability. This is the model's estimated chance the outcome wins. Compare it against the implied probability from odds to judge value yourself.
  3. Read the edge. Positive edge means the model estimates a higher probability than the bookmaker is pricing. The higher the edge, the more the selection deviates in your favour from market consensus.
  4. Verify best odds. Odds displayed are a snapshot — always confirm at your sportsbook before placing. Line shopping across books on a positive-edge pick compounds your long-run return significantly.
Note: This page shows all model-generated AFL picks. For the curated shortlist of the day's strongest edges, use AFL Best Bets. All betting involves risk — always bet within your limits.
Data first

Model probability, edge, and best odds are shown for every pick — so you judge each selection on numbers rather than feel.

Monte Carlo models

20,000+ simulations per game estimate true outcome probabilities across every major AFL market, updated as odds move daily.

Responsible betting

Picks are informational only. Betting involves risk and variance. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.

AFL Picks FAQ

Quick answers
What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline, line, totals and player props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface positive-edge selections with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

What is the difference between AFL picks and AFL best bets?

AFL Picks shows the full set of model-generated predictions across every market for all upcoming games. AFL Best Bets is a curated shortlist — the subset of picks the model rates as highest confidence and strongest edge for that day. If you want everything, use Picks. If you want the model's top selections only, use Best Bets.

What types of AFL picks are available?

The model generates picks across four major market types: moneyline (match winner), line (handicap spread), totals (over/under combined score), and player props (individual stats such as disposals and goals). Game markets and player markets are displayed together within each matchup, ranked by model edge so the strongest values surface first.

How often are AFL picks updated?

Picks are updated daily and re-run whenever bookmaker odds move significantly. As game time approaches, market liquidity increases and line movement can shift the edge calculation on a pick. Between rounds or when no upcoming games qualify, the page displays a notification and picks return automatically once new market data is available.

What does edge mean on this page?

Edge is the difference between the model's estimated probability and the implied probability calculated from the bookmaker's posted odds. A pick with a model probability of 65% against odds implying 55% has a +10% edge — meaning the model estimates the true likelihood is 10 percentage points higher than the market is pricing. Consistently finding positive-edge selections is the foundation of long-run profitable betting strategy.

Can I use AFL picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes — individual picks can be combined as legs in a multi or same game multi. However, risk compounds with every leg added, so starting with 2–3 high-edge selections is more efficient than building large multis around marginal edges. For structured multi recommendations with combined probability and edge shown, use the AFL Multis page.

Does Bet Better guarantee AFL picks will win?

No. AFL picks are statistical predictions intended to help inform betting decisions — no outcome is ever guaranteed. All betting involves variance and risk; even high-edge selections lose a proportion of the time. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.