Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Model v4.0 Updated Daily

Today's AFL Picks — Edge, Probability & Best Odds

Free AFL picks across moneyline, line, totals and player props. Every selection shows the model's probability, the market edge, and readable reasoning — so you bet on numbers, not noise.

AFLSTK vs. GEE 2026-07-16 09:30
Show Picks
Callum Wilkie Under 23.5 Disposals (St Kilda)
Probability 71.1%
Edge 18.7%
Best Odds -110

Callum Wilkie (St Kilda) Under 23.5 Disposals (-110)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Callum Wilkie hitting the Under 23.5 disposals mark against the Geelong Cats, the numbers paint a compelling picture. In his last five away games, Wilkie has averaged 18.6 disposals, falling below the 23.5 line. Facing Geelong, he averages 13.5 disposals in their last five encounters. Wilkie's recent form has been solid but not exceptional, with 80.9% disposal efficiency and 302.8 meters gained per game. The model projecting him at 20.7 disposals, coupled with his trend of hitting the under in away games, makes this a smart play. With his current hit streak at one and a hit rate of 4/5 in away games, Wilkie appears poised to fall short of the 23.5 disposals threshold once more.

Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 15.3%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Total Points
Probability
Edge 11.6%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 11.5%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 11.4%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.2%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.8%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.5%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.6%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.6%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 8.7%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.6%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.3%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 8.1%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Head to Head
Probability
Edge 7.8%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.4%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 7.2%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 6.6%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.5%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.4%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 6.2%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.1%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 5.9%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 5.9%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 5.9%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 5.8%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.1%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.5%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 4.1%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.1%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.0%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.9%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 2.8%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 1.5%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 0.9%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.7%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Total Points Q4
Probability
Edge 0.5%
Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 0.0%
AFLADE vs. SYD 2026-07-17 09:40
Show Picks
Adelaide Crows at Sydney Swans: Sydney Swans Spread -11.5
Probability 70.2%
Edge 17.6%
Best Odds -111

Sydney Swans vs Adelaide Crows : Sydney Swans -11.5 (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The Sydney Swans are looking red-hot coming into this clash against the Adelaide Crows at the iconic SCG. In their last five home games, the Swans have been dominant, boasting an impressive average margin of 34 points and scoring an average of 112.8 points per game. Their forward line has been firing on all cylinders, with an average of 16.6 target goals per game, showcasing their ability to convert opportunities. On the flip side, the Crows have struggled on the road, conceding an average of 72.4 points per game in their last five away matches. With the Swans' strong offensive prowess and the Crows' defensive vulnerabilities, backing Sydney Swans at -11.5 spread seems like a smart play for this matchup. Expect the Swans to snag a comfortable victory and cover the spread with their scoring power.

Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Goals
Probability
Edge 12.2%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Goals
Probability
Edge 12.1%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Total Points
Probability
Edge 10.6%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.5%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.5%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.1%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.1%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 8.9%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.9%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.7%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Goals
Probability
Edge 7.1%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Goals
Probability
Edge 6.8%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.8%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 6.4%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Goals
Probability
Edge 6.2%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 6.2%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.9%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.6%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.6%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 5.5%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.5%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Goals
Probability
Edge 5.4%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 5.3%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 5.2%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Goals
Probability
Edge 5.0%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 4.9%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.7%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Goals
Probability
Edge 4.3%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.4%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.4%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.3%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.9%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.6%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.5%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.4%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.2%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Spread
Probability
Edge 2.0%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.8%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.8%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.8%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.8%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.5%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.4%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.4%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Goals
Probability
Edge 1.0%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 1.0%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.5%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.2%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Goals
Probability
Edge 0.1%
Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.0%
AFLFRE vs. PA 2026-07-18 03:15
Show Picks
Fremantle Dockers at Port Adelaide Power: Over Team Total Points Q1 14.5 (Port Adelaide Power)
Probability 69.5%
Edge 13.9%
Best Odds -125

Port Adelaide Power vs Fremantle Dockers : Over 14.5 team_totals_q1 (-125)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to the Port Adelaide Power taking on the Fremantle Dockers at Adelaide Oval, the stage is set for some early fireworks in the Team Totals Q1 market. Port Adelaide has been a force to be reckoned with in their last five games, consistently racking up an average of 26.4 shots at goal and 10.8 target goals per game at home. Their offensive prowess is undeniable, averaging 75.2 points in their recent home fixtures. On the other hand, Fremantle has shown vulnerability away, conceding an average of 73.4 points in their last five road games. With Port Adelaide's attacking firepower and Fremantle's defensive gaps, the Over 14.5 for Port Adelaide in the first quarter looks like a promising bet. Expect the Power to come out swinging early and put on a scoring clinic against the Dockers.

Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Total Points
Probability
Edge 13.3%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 8.9%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Goals
Probability
Edge 8.1%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 7.1%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 7.0%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.5%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.9%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 4.6%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.4%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.6%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.3%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Total Points Q4
Probability
Edge 2.1%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.0%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Total Points Q2
Probability
Edge 1.3%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Goals
Probability
Edge 1.2%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.2%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.0%
AFLMEL vs. NM 2026-07-18 06:15
Show Picks
Melbourne Demons at North Melbourne Kangaroos: Under Team Total Points H1 40.5 (North Melbourne Kangaroos)
Probability 73.3%
Edge 19.8%
Best Odds -115

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Melbourne Demons : Under 40.5 team_totals_h1 (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fans, let's dive into the numbers for the clash between North Melbourne Kangaroos and Melbourne Demons at Marvel Stadium. North Melbourne Kangaroos have been struggling to find their scoring touch, averaging just 70 points per game in their last five outings. Their target goal average sits at 9.8, indicating a struggle to convert opportunities into majors. Facing Melbourne Demons, who boast a solid defense allowing only 69.2 points on average in their recent games, the Kangaroos could find it tough to break through. With North Melbourne's recent trend of lower scoring combined with Melbourne's stingy defense, it paints a picture of a tight first-half battle where points could be hard to come by. Considering the line set at 40.5 for the Kangaroos' team total in the first half, the under looks like a compelling play given their recent offensive struggles and Melbourne's defensive prowess. This matchup could shape up to be a defensive slugfest early on, making the under an intriguing betting option.

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 14.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 13.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 12.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 12.5%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 12.3%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 10.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Goals
Probability
Edge 10.3%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.1%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.7%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Goals
Probability
Edge 9.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 9.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.2%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Spread
Probability
Edge 6.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Goals
Probability
Edge 6.5%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.2%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.1%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Total Points Q4
Probability
Edge 5.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Total Points Q2
Probability
Edge 5.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.7%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.5%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Goals
Probability
Edge 2.5%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.2%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 0.5%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 0.5%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Melbourne Demons Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 0.5%
AFLCAR vs. COL 2026-07-18 09:35
Show Picks
Jack Crisp Over 17.5 Disposals (Collingwood)
Probability 81.2%
Edge 18.3%
Best Odds -169

Jack Crisp (Collingwood) Over 17.5 Disposals (-169)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's break down why Jack Crisp is a prime pick for hitting over 17.5 disposals in the upcoming clash between Collingwood and Carlton at the iconic MCG. Crisp has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 20 disposals over his last 5 home games, with a stellar 77.2% disposal efficiency to boot. Facing Carlton, he's been even more prolific, boasting an average of 21 disposals against them. With a knack for finding the footy, his recent form is on fire, notching up 6 consecutive hits at home. Factor in his ability to intercept (3.8 per game) and cover ground (345.4 metres gained), and the stage is set for Crisp to dominate the possession game once again. Backing him to surpass 17.5 disposals is a bet that's not just grounded in stats but in the real impact he brings to the Magpies' midfield.

Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Goals
Probability
Edge 18.2%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 14.2%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 13.3%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Goals
Probability
Edge 13.0%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Goals
Probability
Edge 12.4%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Spread
Probability
Edge 10.3%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.1%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.5%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.5%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.1%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.7%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.5%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.3%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.8%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.3%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.0%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.5%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.9%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.8%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Goals
Probability
Edge 4.6%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Goals
Probability
Edge 4.2%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Goals
Probability
Edge 3.9%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 3.5%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Total Points
Probability
Edge 3.5%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.4%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 3.1%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.0%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 3.0%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 3.0%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.9%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.7%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.1%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Head to Head
Probability
Edge 1.5%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.0%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.9%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 0.9%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.7%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 0.7%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 0.6%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.4%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 0.4%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.2%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.1%
Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.0%
AFLBRI vs. WCE 2026-07-18 10:10
Show Picks
Brisbane Lions at West Coast Eagles: Under Team Total Points Q1 26.5 (Brisbane Lions)
Probability 72.8%
Edge 18.5%
Best Odds -119

West Coast Eagles vs Brisbane Lions : Under 26.5 team_totals_q1 (-119)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The Brisbane Lions are roaring into Optus Stadium with an offensive onslaught that's been leaving rival defenses in disarray. Over their last five away games, they've been averaging a staggering 113.2 points per match, with an impressive 61.2 inside 50s and 35.2 shots at goal on average. Their precision in front of the big sticks has seen them bagging an average of 18.4 goals per game during this stretch. On the flip side, the West Coast Eagles have shown vulnerability, conceding an average of 88.8 points overall and 78.4 points in their last five home games. With the Lions' attacking prowess and the Eagles' defensive leaks, the Under 26.5 on Brisbane's Team Totals in the first quarter seems like a tantalizing prospect to capitalize on.

West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 17.9%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 16.1%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.6%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.3%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.8%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.7%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.2%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.5%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.9%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.3%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Goals
Probability
Edge 3.3%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.8%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.6%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.4%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Goals
Probability
Edge 2.2%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.2%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.1%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.5%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Goals
Probability
Edge 1.5%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.4%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.3%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Total Points Q2
Probability
Edge 0.3%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Total Points Q4
Probability
Edge 0.1%
AFLHAW vs. RIC 2026-07-19 03:10
Show Picks
Rhyan Mansell Over 0.5 Goals (Richmond)
Probability 82.7%
Edge 14.7%
Best Odds -213

Rhyan Mansell (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-213)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

If you're looking to back a player prop with a solid statistical foundation, Rhyan Mansell is your man for the Richmond Tigers against the Hawthorn Hawks clash at the MCG. In his last five home games, Mansell has been a consistent threat up front, averaging 1 goal per game, with a strong 51.7% goal accuracy overall. His ability to impact the scoreboard is further highlighted by his 4.6 score involvements per game on home turf. Facing Hawthorn, against whom he's averaged 0.5 goals in his last five meetings, Mansell is poised to snag another goal this time around. With a line set at just 0.5, the stats point towards Mansell comfortably surpassing that mark. Betting on Mansell to go over 0.5 goals is a smart move given his recent form and historical performance against the Hawks.

Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Total Points
Probability
Edge 12.8%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.1%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Goals
Probability
Edge 9.6%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Goals
Probability
Edge 8.9%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 8.8%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.3%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 7.1%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.0%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 6.9%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.5%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.5%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.4%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.6%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 4.2%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.5%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.8%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Goals
Probability
Edge 2.1%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Total Points Q4
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Total Points Q2
Probability
Edge 0.8%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.7%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.6%
Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.0%
AFLWB vs. GCS 2026-07-19 05:15
Show Picks
Western Bulldogs at Gold Coast Suns: Western Bulldogs Spread 2.5
Probability 72.1%
Edge 19.5%
Best Odds -111

Gold Coast Suns vs Western Bulldogs : Western Bulldogs 2.5 (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The stage is set at People First Stadium, and all eyes are on the clash between Gold Coast Suns and Western Bulldogs. Recent form paints a vivid picture - Suns struggling to shine, averaging a mere 64.2 points in their last five outings. With a leaky defense conceding 102.8 points on average, they face an uphill battle against the Bulldogs' solid attack. On the flip side, the Bulldogs show resilience on the road, holding opponents to just 70.2 points while boasting an average of 72 points themselves. With a penchant for hitting the scoreboard more consistently, the Bulldogs, despite being the away team, hold the edge. Expect them to cover the spread with style, snagging a win by more than 2.5 points in this showdown.

Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 17.7%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 17.4%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Head to Head
Probability
Edge 16.9%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 16.3%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 14.2%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 13.0%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 11.9%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.8%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.8%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.0%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.9%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Goals
Probability
Edge 8.4%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 8.4%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 8.4%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.1%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Total Points
Probability
Edge 8.1%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Goals
Probability
Edge 8.0%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.9%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 6.9%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 6.9%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 6.5%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.0%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Goals
Probability
Edge 6.0%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.9%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 4.4%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Goals
Probability
Edge 4.2%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 4.2%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 3.4%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 3.2%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Goals
Probability
Edge 0.9%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.6%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.6%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.5%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.2%
AFLGWS vs. ESS 2026-07-19 06:40
Show Picks
Finn Callaghan Under 31.5 Disposals (GWS GIANTS)
Probability 73.4%
Edge 19.9%
Best Odds -115

Finn Callaghan (GWS GIANTS) Under 31.5 Disposals (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Finn Callaghan hitting the Under 31.5 disposals mark against Essendon, the numbers paint a clear picture. In his last five away games, Finn has been solid but not stellar, averaging 28 disposals. Facing Essendon, his average drops slightly to 23.7 disposals. With recent stats showing consistency around 28 disposals per game, Finn's performance seems to align with this trend. His disposals efficiency also hovers around 74.8%, indicating he's not a volume accumulator. While the temptation to back Finn to exceed 31.5 disposals might be strong, the safer play is to trust the data and go for the Under. The odds may favor the Over, but Finn's recent form suggests otherwise. Trust the numbers and snag the Under on Finn Callaghan's disposals for a smart play on this AFL clash.

Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Total Points
Probability
Edge 19.2%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 18.7%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 17.4%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 17.3%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 17.1%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 15.5%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 12.7%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 11.8%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.8%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.6%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 10.4%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.3%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.9%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.1%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.8%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 8.6%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.1%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.6%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.6%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.6%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Total Points Q2
Probability
Edge 4.5%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Total Points Q4
Probability
Edge 4.2%
Essendon Bombers vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.5%

Bet Better Pro

You're seeing a sample. Pro unlocks every high-edge pick.

Free shows you the model at work. Pro hands you the full board — every positive-edge selection, props and multis unlocked, across 10+ leagues.

  • Every high-value pick unlocked — no gating
  • Top picks with full smart-betting angles
  • AI-powered player props & multis
  • High-value team prop opportunities
  • Proprietary models across 10+ leagues
  • Join a network of sharp bettors
  • $29 per week, billed weekly
  • BEST VALUE
    $7.67 per week, billed annually · 73% OFF
  • $89 per month, billed monthly
Quick answer

What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline (winner), line (spread), totals and player props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface positive-edge selections with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming AFL game with predictions across all major markets. Expand any game to see picks ranked by edge, with probability, best odds, and the model's full reasoning. For the highest-confidence shortlist only, use Best Bets. For player markets, jump to Props.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the outcome wins. A probability of 65% means the model thinks it wins 65 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's implied probability from odds. Positive edge means the model estimates the true chance is higher than what's being priced.

Best Odds Market

The top available decimal odds at the time of calculation. Odds move — always verify at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

AFL pick types — what's on this page?

Market reference
Market What it means Best used for
Moneyline Which team wins the match outright. Simple single bet or a low-risk multi leg.
Line (Spread) Win by more than a handicap margin. When one side is expected to dominate or the game should be close.
Totals Over or under the combined match score. Weather, game pace, defensive matchups and scoring trends.
Player Props Individual stats — disposals, goals, marks. Exploit role changes, matchup edges or recent form streaks.

How to read AFL picks in 4 steps

  1. Find a game. Games are listed in chronological order. Tap "Show Picks" to expand markets and reasoning for that matchup.
  2. Check model probability. This is the model's estimated chance the outcome wins. Compare it against the implied probability from odds to judge value yourself.
  3. Read the edge. Positive edge means the model estimates a higher probability than the bookmaker is pricing. The higher the edge, the more the selection deviates in your favour from market consensus.
  4. Verify best odds. Odds displayed are a snapshot — always confirm at your sportsbook before placing. Line shopping across books on a positive-edge pick compounds your long-run return significantly.
Note: This page shows all model-generated AFL picks. For the curated shortlist of the day's strongest edges, use AFL Best Bets. All betting involves risk — always bet within your limits.
Data first

Model probability, edge, and best odds are shown for every pick — so you judge each selection on numbers rather than feel.

Monte Carlo models

20,000+ simulations per game estimate true outcome probabilities across every major AFL market, updated as odds move daily.

Responsible betting

Picks are informational only. Betting involves risk and variance. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.

AFL Picks FAQ

Quick answers
What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline, line, totals and player props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface positive-edge selections with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

What is the difference between AFL picks and AFL best bets?

AFL Picks shows the full set of model-generated predictions across every market for all upcoming games. AFL Best Bets is a curated shortlist — the subset of picks the model rates as highest confidence and strongest edge for that day. If you want everything, use Picks. If you want the model's top selections only, use Best Bets.

What types of AFL picks are available?

The model generates picks across four major market types: moneyline (match winner), line (handicap spread), totals (over/under combined score), and player props (individual stats such as disposals and goals). Game markets and player markets are displayed together within each matchup, ranked by model edge so the strongest values surface first.

How often are AFL picks updated?

Picks are updated daily and re-run whenever bookmaker odds move significantly. As game time approaches, market liquidity increases and line movement can shift the edge calculation on a pick. Between rounds or when no upcoming games qualify, the page displays a notification and picks return automatically once new market data is available.

What does edge mean on this page?

Edge is the difference between the model's estimated probability and the implied probability calculated from the bookmaker's posted odds. A pick with a model probability of 65% against odds implying 55% has a +10% edge — meaning the model estimates the true likelihood is 10 percentage points higher than the market is pricing. Consistently finding positive-edge selections is the foundation of long-run profitable betting strategy.

Can I use AFL picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes — individual picks can be combined as legs in a multi or same game multi. However, risk compounds with every leg added, so starting with 2–3 high-edge selections is more efficient than building large multis around marginal edges. For structured multi recommendations with combined probability and edge shown, use the AFL Multis page.

Does Bet Better guarantee AFL picks will win?

No. AFL picks are statistical predictions intended to help inform betting decisions — no outcome is ever guaranteed. All betting involves variance and risk; even high-edge selections lose a proportion of the time. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.