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Today's AFL Picks & Predictions

Q: Does Bet Better guarantee AFL picks will win?

No. AFL picks are statistical predictions intended to inform betting decisions — no outcome is ever guaranteed. All betting involves variance and risk. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

AFL picks powered by Monte Carlo simulation and machine learning. Every selection includes model probability, market edge, and readable reasoning — covering moneyline, line, totals and player props. Updated daily as markets move.

Today's picks How to read Pick types FAQ

Quick answer

What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline (winner), line (spread), totals and player props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface positive-edge selections with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming AFL game with predictions across all major markets. Expand any game to see picks ranked by edge, with probability, best odds, and the model's full reasoning. For the highest-confidence shortlist only, use Best Bets. For player markets, jump to Props.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the outcome wins. A probability of 65% means the model thinks it wins 65 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's implied probability from odds. Positive edge means the model estimates the true chance is higher than what's being priced.

Best Odds Market

The top available decimal odds at the time of calculation. Odds move — always verify at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

AFL pick types — what's on this page?

Market reference

Market	What it means	Best used for
Moneyline	Which team wins the match outright.	Simple single bet or a low-risk multi leg.
Line (Spread)	Win by more than a handicap margin.	When one side is expected to dominate or the game should be close.
Totals	Over or under the combined match score.	Weather, game pace, defensive matchups and scoring trends.
Player Props	Individual stats — disposals, goals, marks.	Exploit role changes, matchup edges or recent form streaks.

How to read AFL picks in 4 steps

Find a game. Games are listed in chronological order. Tap "Show Picks" to expand markets and reasoning for that matchup.
Check model probability. This is the model's estimated chance the outcome wins. Compare it against the implied probability from odds to judge value yourself.
Read the edge. Positive edge means the model estimates a higher probability than the bookmaker is pricing. The higher the edge, the more the selection deviates in your favour from market consensus.
Verify best odds. Odds displayed are a snapshot — always confirm at your sportsbook before placing. Line shopping across books on a positive-edge pick compounds your long-run return significantly.

Note: This page shows all model-generated AFL picks. For the curated shortlist of the day's strongest edges, use AFL Best Bets. All betting involves risk — always bet within your limits.

Data first

Model probability, edge, and best odds are shown for every pick — so you judge each selection on numbers rather than feel.

Monte Carlo models

20,000+ simulations per game estimate true outcome probabilities across every major AFL market, updated as odds move daily.

Responsible betting

Picks are informational only. Betting involves risk and variance. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.

AFL • WCE vs. NM 2026-06-13 06:15 •

West Coast Eagles Away

vs.

Home North Melbourne Kangaroos

Show Picks

Luke Davies-Uniacke Over 23.5 Disposals (North Melbourne)

Probability 74.6%

Edge 13.6%

Best Odds -156

Luke Davies-Uniacke (North Melbourne) Over 23.5 Disposals (-156)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to go over his disposal line, you want a reliable ball magnet, and Luke Davies-Uniacke fits the bill perfectly. His recent form at home has been nothing short of impressive, averaging a whopping 27.4 disposals per game in his last five outings. What's even more telling is his consistency in finding the footy, with an average of 26 disposals overall during this period. Facing the West Coast Eagles, a team he's historically performed well against with an average of 26.8 disposals in their last five matchups, Davies-Uniacke is poised to exploit his home ground advantage at Optus Stadium. With his strong contested possession numbers (10.2 avg) and efficient ball use (78.6% avg disposal efficiency), backing him to surpass the 23.5 disposal line is a sound bet with a high likelihood of hitting.

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals

Probability

Edge 12.1%

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Goals

Probability

Edge 11.7%

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals

Probability

Edge 11.4%

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals

Probability

Edge 10.5%

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Goals

Probability

Edge 10.0%

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals

Probability

Edge 8.1%

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals

Probability

Edge 7.8%

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals

Probability

Edge 7.4%

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals

Probability

Edge 5.2%

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals

Probability

Edge 4.8%

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals

Probability

Edge 3.5%

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Goals

Probability

Edge 3.4%

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals

Probability

Edge 3.1%

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals

Probability

Edge 2.8%

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals

Probability

Edge 1.6%

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals

Probability

Edge 1.5%

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals

Probability

Edge 1.4%

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals

Probability

Edge 1.3%

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals

Probability

Edge 0.6%

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals

Probability

Edge 0.4%

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals

Probability

Edge 0.1%

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals

Probability

Edge 0.1%

AFL • SYD vs. PA 2026-06-13 09:35 •

Sydney Swans Away

vs.

Home Port Adelaide Power

Show Picks

Riley Bice Over 18.5 Disposals (Sydney Swans)

Probability 80.3%

Edge 18.2%

Best Odds -164

Riley Bice (Sydney Swans) Over 18.5 Disposals (-164)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to betting on Riley Bice to hit over 18.5 disposals against Port Adelaide, the stats paint a clear picture. In his last five away games, Bice has been a midfield maestro, averaging a hefty 25 disposals, with impressive efficiency at 78.5%. His ability to find space and impact the play is evident in his 11.2 handballs and 13.8 kicks per game. Additionally, he's been a dominant force in meters gained, averaging 414.6 in his recent away outings. With a current hit streak of 2 away games and hitting his disposal line in 4 out of 5 away matches, Bice is showing consistency. Facing Port Adelaide, who he averages 2 disposals more against than his usual, Bice is poised to shine. Bet on him to deliver the goods in this clash at the Adelaide Oval.

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Head to Head

Probability

Edge 17.7%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals

Probability

Edge 15.8%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals

Probability

Edge 15.0%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Goals

Probability

Edge 14.8%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Goals

Probability

Edge 13.6%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals

Probability

Edge 13.4%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Goals

Probability

Edge 13.3%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals

Probability

Edge 12.6%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals

Probability

Edge 12.6%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals

Probability

Edge 12.2%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Goals

Probability

Edge 12.1%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals

Probability

Edge 11.1%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Goals

Probability

Edge 10.9%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals

Probability

Edge 10.6%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals

Probability

Edge 9.8%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals

Probability

Edge 9.4%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals

Probability

Edge 7.6%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals

Probability

Edge 7.4%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals

Probability

Edge 6.8%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals

Probability

Edge 6.6%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals

Probability

Edge 5.8%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals

Probability

Edge 4.7%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Total Points

Probability

Edge 3.1%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals

Probability

Edge 2.5%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Goals

Probability

Edge 2.4%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals

Probability

Edge 2.2%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Goals

Probability

Edge 1.7%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals

Probability

Edge 1.2%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals

Probability

Edge 1.1%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals

Probability

Edge 0.6%

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals

Probability

Edge 0.2%

AFL • BRI vs. RIC 2026-06-14 03:10 •

Brisbane Lions Away

vs.

Home Richmond Tigers

Show Picks

Jarrod Berry Under 20.5 Disposals (Brisbane Lions)

Probability 71.9%

Edge 18.4%

Best Odds -115

Jarrod Berry (Brisbane Lions) Under 20.5 Disposals (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable performances on the footy field, Jarrod Berry stands out as a consistent force. Despite his recent hot streak, averaging 18.2 disposals in his last five away games, the numbers suggest a slight regression is on the cards. Facing the Richmond Tigers, Berry's historical numbers against them indicate a dip in disposals compared to his usual output. With an average of 16.5 disposals in his last five matchups against Richmond, the trend points towards a potential underperformance. Even though Berry's overall form has been solid, boasting a 5-game hit streak, this matchup might see him fall just short of the 20.5 disposal line. Expect Berry to still impact the game but possibly not reach the lofty disposal numbers this time around.

Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals

Probability

Edge 13.7%

Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals

Probability

Edge 12.3%

Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals

Probability

Edge 10.0%

Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals

Probability

Edge 9.7%

Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals

Probability

Edge 8.7%

Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals

Probability

Edge 8.6%

Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals

Probability

Edge 7.6%

Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals

Probability

Edge 7.0%

Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Goals

Probability

Edge 5.8%

Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals

Probability

Edge 5.5%

Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals

Probability

Edge 5.0%

Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals

Probability

Edge 4.6%

Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Goals

Probability

Edge 4.1%

Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals

Probability

Edge 3.4%

Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Goals

Probability

Edge 2.3%

Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals

Probability

Edge 2.0%

Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Goals

Probability

Edge 1.5%

Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Goals

Probability

Edge 1.4%

Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Goals

Probability

Edge 0.6%

AFL • GWS vs. STK 2026-06-14 05:15 •

Greater Western Sydney Giants Away

vs.

Home St Kilda Saints

Show Picks

Jake Stringer Over 0.5 Goals (GWS GIANTS)

Probability 94.7%

Edge 12.1%

Best Odds -476

Jake Stringer (GWS GIANTS) Over 0.5 Goals (-476)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Jake Stringer stands out like a beacon in the night. This sharpshooter from the Greater Western Sydney Giants has been on fire lately, hitting the scoreboard consistently. Averaging 1.2 goals in his last five away games and boasting a solid 54.1% goal accuracy, Stringer knows how to split the middle when it counts. Facing off against St Kilda, a team he's been able to bag 1.5 goals on average in their away matchups, the stage is set for Stringer to shine at Marvel Stadium. With a current hit streak of six games and a flawless 3/3 hit rate in his recent away fixtures, Stringer is in prime form to deliver the goods once again. So, when the opportunity arises to back him to kick over 0.5 goals, it's a bet that looks as solid as Stringer's goal-kicking technique.

St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals

Probability

Edge 10.7%

St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Head to Head

Probability

Edge 9.5%

St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals

Probability

Edge 8.6%

St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals

Probability

Edge 8.4%

St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals

Probability

Edge 7.6%

St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals

Probability

Edge 7.3%

St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals

Probability

Edge 7.1%

St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals

Probability

Edge 7.1%

St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Spread

Probability

Edge 6.2%

St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals

Probability

Edge 6.0%

St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals

Probability

Edge 5.2%

St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals

Probability

Edge 4.9%

St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals

Probability

Edge 3.6%

St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals

Probability

Edge 3.1%

St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals

Probability

Edge 2.7%

St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals

Probability

Edge 2.7%

St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals

Probability

Edge 2.5%

St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals

Probability

Edge 2.4%

St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals

Probability

Edge 1.7%

St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals

Probability

Edge 0.2%

St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals

Probability

Edge 0.1%

AFL Picks FAQ

Quick answers

What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline, line, totals and player props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface positive-edge selections with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

What is the difference between AFL picks and AFL best bets?

AFL Picks shows the full set of model-generated predictions across every market for all upcoming games. AFL Best Bets is a curated shortlist — the subset of picks the model rates as highest confidence and strongest edge for that day. If you want everything, use Picks. If you want the model's top selections only, use Best Bets.

What types of AFL picks are available?

The model generates picks across four major market types: moneyline (match winner), line (handicap spread), totals (over/under combined score), and player props (individual stats such as disposals and goals). Game markets and player markets are displayed together within each matchup, ranked by model edge so the strongest values surface first.

How often are AFL picks updated?

Picks are updated daily and re-run whenever bookmaker odds move significantly. As game time approaches, market liquidity increases and line movement can shift the edge calculation on a pick. Between rounds or when no upcoming games qualify, the page displays a notification and picks return automatically once new market data is available.

What does edge mean on this page?

Edge is the difference between the model's estimated probability and the implied probability calculated from the bookmaker's posted odds. A pick with a model probability of 65% against odds implying 55% has a +10% edge — meaning the model estimates the true likelihood is 10 percentage points higher than the market is pricing. Consistently finding positive-edge selections is the foundation of long-run profitable betting strategy.

Can I use AFL picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes — individual picks can be combined as legs in a multi or same game multi. However, risk compounds with every leg added, so starting with 2–3 high-edge selections is more efficient than building large multis around marginal edges. For structured multi recommendations with combined probability and edge shown, use the AFL Multis page.

Does Bet Better guarantee AFL picks will win?

No. AFL picks are statistical predictions intended to help inform betting decisions — no outcome is ever guaranteed. All betting involves variance and risk; even high-edge selections lose a proportion of the time. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

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Popular Pages Today

AFL pick types — what's on this page?

How to read AFL picks in 4 steps

Luke Davies-Uniacke (North Melbourne) Over 23.5 Disposals (-156)

Luke Davies-Uniacke (North Melbourne) Over 22.5 Disposals (-217)

Jack Darling (North Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-323)

Ryan Maric (West Coast Eagles) Over 15.5 Disposals (-167)

Luke Davies-Uniacke (North Melbourne) Over 21.5 Disposals (-303)

Elliot Yeo (West Coast Eagles) Over 0.5 Goals (-192)

Ryan Maric (West Coast Eagles) Over 14.5 Disposals (-256)

Luke Davies-Uniacke (North Melbourne) Over 20.5 Disposals (-455)

Luke Davies-Uniacke (North Melbourne) Over 19.5 Disposals (-588)

Ryan Maric (West Coast Eagles) Over 13.5 Disposals (-400)

Tim Kelly (West Coast Eagles) Over 20.5 Disposals (-222)

Tim Kelly (West Coast Eagles) Over 19.5 Disposals (-323)

Zane Duursma (North Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-227)

Tim Kelly (West Coast Eagles) Over 18.5 Disposals (-455)

Harley Reid (West Coast Eagles) Over 20.5 Disposals (-217)

Ryan Maric (West Coast Eagles) Over 12.5 Disposals (-714)

Tim Kelly (West Coast Eagles) Over 17.5 Disposals (-714)

Harley Reid (West Coast Eagles) Over 19.5 Disposals (-323)

Harley Reid (West Coast Eagles) Over 18.5 Disposals (-455)

Cameron Zurhaar (North Melbourne) Over 11.5 Disposals (-294)

Bailey J. Williams (West Coast Eagles) Over 11.5 Disposals (-233)

Tom Cole (West Coast Eagles) Over 10.5 Disposals (-286)

Harley Reid (West Coast Eagles) Over 17.5 Disposals (-714)

Riley Bice (Sydney Swans) Over 18.5 Disposals (-164)

Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans : Port Adelaide Power Win (+184)

Kane Farrell (Port Adelaide) Over 18.5 Disposals (-123)

Riley Bice (Sydney Swans) Over 17.5 Disposals (-238)

Chad Warner (Sydney Swans) Over 0.5 Goals (-217)

Logan McDonald (Sydney Swans) Over 0.5 Goals (-270)

Kane Farrell (Port Adelaide) Over 17.5 Disposals (-179)

Charlie Curnow (Sydney Swans) Over 1.5 Goals (-333)

Riley Bice (Sydney Swans) Over 16.5 Disposals (-333)

Zak Butters (Port Adelaide) Over 27.5 Disposals (-164)

Zak Butters (Port Adelaide) Over 26.5 Disposals (-217)

Hayden McLean (Sydney Swans) Over 0.5 Goals (-294)

Zak Butters (Port Adelaide) Over 25.5 Disposals (-294)

Corey Durdin (Port Adelaide) Over 0.5 Goals (-217)

Kane Farrell (Port Adelaide) Over 16.5 Disposals (-263)

Zak Butters (Port Adelaide) Over 24.5 Disposals (-400)

Riley Bice (Sydney Swans) Over 15.5 Disposals (-500)

Kane Farrell (Port Adelaide) Over 15.5 Disposals (-400)

Zak Butters (Port Adelaide) Over 23.5 Disposals (-588)

Zak Butters (Port Adelaide) Over 22.5 Disposals (-769)

Riley Bice (Sydney Swans) Over 14.5 Disposals (-769)

Kane Farrell (Port Adelaide) Over 14.5 Disposals (-588)

James Jordon (Sydney Swans) Over 13.5 Disposals (-233)

Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans : Under 160.5 Total Points (-111)

James Jordon (Sydney Swans) Over 12.5 Disposals (-357)

Jason Horne-Francis (Port Adelaide) Over 0.5 Goals (-278)

Willem Drew (Port Adelaide) Over 16.5 Disposals (-270)

Isaac Heeney (Sydney Swans) Over 0.5 Goals (-500)

James Jordon (Sydney Swans) Over 10.5 Disposals (-769)

Willem Drew (Port Adelaide) Over 15.5 Disposals (-400)

Willem Drew (Port Adelaide) Over 14.5 Disposals (-588)

James Jordon (Sydney Swans) Over 11.5 Disposals (-588)

Jarrod Berry (Brisbane Lions) Under 20.5 Disposals (-115)

Tom Brown (Richmond) Over 13.5 Disposals (-147)

Tom Brown (Richmond) Over 12.5 Disposals (-204)

Tom Brown (Richmond) Over 11.5 Disposals (-294)

Jayden Short (Richmond) Over 22.5 Disposals (-156)

Jayden Short (Richmond) Over 21.5 Disposals (-217)

Ben Miller (Richmond) Over 12.5 Disposals (-175)

Jayden Short (Richmond) Over 20.5 Disposals (-303)

Tom Brown (Richmond) Over 10.5 Disposals (-455)

Seth Campbell (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-213)

Jayden Short (Richmond) Over 19.5 Disposals (-455)

Ben Miller (Richmond) Over 11.5 Disposals (-278)

Tom Brown (Richmond) Over 9.5 Disposals (-714)

Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-357)

Jayden Short (Richmond) Over 18.5 Disposals (-714)

Kai Lohmann (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-526)

Ben Miller (Richmond) Over 10.5 Disposals (-455)

See the edge
before you back it.