On Friday 11 September 2026, Chelsea play Hull City in the EPL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Lucas Herrington (Hull City) Over 0.5 Shots, priced at +200 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Lucas Herrington (Hull City) Over 0.5 Shots (+200)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing As Chelsea hosts Hull City, all eyes will be on Lucas Herrington, who’s poised for a breakthrough performance. Despite his recent stats showing a quiet spell, this matchup presents a golden opportunity for him. Chelsea's defensive style may invite Hull to play more aggressively, and as a forward, Herrington could find himself with the ball more often than not. The home side’s relentless pressing could pressure Hull to spring quick counterattacks, and Herrington thrives in those moments. Historically, when playing against teams that dominate possession, he tends to find pockets of space to unleash a shot. While his average of zero shots might raise eyebrows, remember that even the most unassuming players can surprise when the conditions are right. With an implied probability of over 33% and a favorable game script, taking the over on Herrington's total shots feels like a smart play as he seeks to make a statement away from home.
Lewie Coyle (Hull City) Over 0.5 Shots on Target (+950)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing As Hull City heads to Stamford Bridge, all eyes will be on Lewie Coyle, a player whose potential for impact is often overlooked. Despite averaging just 0.2 shots on target in his last five outings, the context of this matchup provides an enticing opportunity. Chelsea’s defense has shown vulnerabilities, particularly against teams willing to push forward. Coyle’s recent away games have yielded an average of 0.4 shots, suggesting he’s gradually finding his rhythm. The current odds imply that a shot on target is a distant possibility, but with Hull expected to defend deep, Coyle might just find a window to unleash a strike. The goal for Coyle should be clear: capitalize on any attacking moments he gets. Given the model's prediction and the unique dynamics of this encounter, betting on him to record over 0.5 shots on target feels like a savvy play.
Lucas Herrington (Hull City) Over 1.5 Shots (+1400)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing As Hull City prepares to take on Chelsea, all eyes should be on Lucas Herrington. Now, while his recent shooting stats might not leap off the page—averaging zero shots in both his last five overall and away matches—there’s a compelling reason to back the Over 1.5 shots line. Chelsea is notorious for dominating possession, which often leads to opponents like Hull needing to adapt quickly in tight spaces. This could open up opportunities for Herrington, especially if he finds himself in transition. Moreover, the stakes are high; Hull will need to push forward to compete, potentially stretching the game and allowing Herrington to exploit any gaps. With Chelsea’s defense still finding its footing and Herrington looking to break free from a stagnant streak, this could be the match where he surprises everyone. Sometimes, it’s about seizing the moment, and this Saturday might just be his time to shine.
That is how our model reads Chelsea v Hull City. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.