Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brashard Smith is Yes on Anytime TD.
On Anytime TD, our numbers say this bet wins about 12 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 12%, the price says 7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 23, 8:02PM UTC
NFL
Brashard Smith
KC
Brashard Smith has one live pick today: Anytime TD Yes that pays $1,500 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Anytime TD
Yes
+1400 (15.00) · $100→$1,500
Value call
Indianapolis Colts
@
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City · Indoor
Mon 21 Sep, 12:20AM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 365 of 558 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Smith had zero carries during Monday's 31-10 win versus the Broncos.
updated Sep 16, 12:23AM UTC · 7d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
12 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 12.1% · before adjusting for past results 19.5% · the book's price implies 6.7% · gap +5.5%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Anytime TD | 19.5% | 12.1% | 6.7% | 15.00 | +12.8% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
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Brashard Smith (KC) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+1400)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Kansas City Chiefs play Indianapolis Colts in the NFL on Monday 21 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Brashard Smith (KC) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer. It was priced at +1400 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $150 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formAnytime TD16 lines trackedNo line posted
18%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked16
Brashard Smith's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 16 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 18%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receiving Yards1 line trackedNo line posted 29.5typical line · receiving yds
model over27%tips tracked1
Brashard Smith's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 1 time, typically around a 29.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 21 Sep 26 |
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Total Touchdowns |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 15 Sep 26 |
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 15 Sep 26 |
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Total Touchdowns |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Brashard Smith (KC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brashard Smith is Yes on Anytime TD. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.8% on this pick. Their next game is Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs on Monday 21 September at Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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