Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brashard Smith is Yes on Anytime TD.
On Anytime TD, our numbers say this bet wins about 20 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 20%, implied 13%, edge +7.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 28, 1:57PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Anytime TD
Yes
+700 (8.00) · $100→$800
+7.7% Edge
Denver Broncos
@
Kansas City Chiefs
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Smith is listed as the No. 4 running back on the unofficial depth chart Kansas City released ahead of the preseason, Pete Grathoff of the Kansas City Star reports.
updated Aug 20, 8:37PM UTC · 7d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
View results →
How often this wins
20 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 20.2% · the book's price implies 12.5% · gap +7.7%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Anytime TD | 20.2% | — | 12.5% | 4.95 | +7.7% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime
Brashard Smith (KC) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+700)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Kansas City Chiefs play Denver Broncos in the NFL on Tuesday 15 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Brashard Smith (KC) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer. It was priced at +700 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Unlock the full breakdown
See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.
Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime
Betting angles
Markets & formAnytime TD1 line trackedNo line posted
20%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked1
Brashard Smith's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 1 time, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 20%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
See the complete track record
Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.
Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime
Brashard Smith (KC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brashard Smith is Yes on Anytime TD. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.7% on this pick. Their next game is Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs at Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.