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NFL

Brashard Smith

KC

Value call

Brashard Smith has one live pick today: to score a touchdown that pays $850 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LONG-SHOT
How often this wins
9 in 100
Predicted
0.1 Anytime TD
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 9.0% · before adjusting for past results 14.3% · the book's price implies 11.8% · gap -2.8%.

Latest Model PickFree
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas · Indoor
Sun 4 Oct, 4:25 PM ET
Brashard Smith
to score a touchdown
Anytime TD Yes +750 (8.50) · $100→$850
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 9 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$85.00 Odds+750
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brashard Smith is Yes on Anytime TD.
On Anytime TD, our numbers say this bet wins about 9 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 9%, the price says 12%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 15, 1:43AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Anytime TD14.3%9.0%11.8%8.50+2.5%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

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AI Analysis

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Brashard Smith (KC) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+750)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Las Vegas Raiders play Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Brashard Smith (KC) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer. It was priced at +750 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $85 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD19 lines trackedNo line posted
17%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked19

Brashard Smith's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 19 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 17%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards1 line trackedNo line posted
29.5typical line · receiving yds
model over27%tips tracked1

Brashard Smith's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 1 time, typically around a 29.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
20 Sep 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs Total Touchdowns — — — Pending
14 Sep 26 Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
14 Sep 26 Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Total Touchdowns — — — Pending

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About This Player

Brashard Smith (KC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brashard Smith is Yes on Anytime TD. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.5% on this pick. Their next game is Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday 4 October at Las Vegas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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