As the Portland Trail Blazers gear up to face the Utah Jazz, targeting Deni Avdija for under 29.5 points and rebounds feels like a savvy play. Despite his recent surge, averaging 27.6 points and 10.8 rebounds over the last five games, those numbers can be misleading in this matchup. Historically, Avdija has struggled against the Jazz, averaging only 16 points and 8.8 rebounds in their recent clashes. At home, he's even lower with 14.8 points and 6.5 boards against Utah. Moreover, the Trail Blazers have a solid defensive structure that could limit his opportunities. With a hit rate of just 58% at home in his last 12 games, Avdija's numbers suggest a regression is likely. Given the implied probability of 55.2% on this under, it seems wise to bet against the grain of recent performances and expect a quieter night for the young star.
Isaiah Collier (Utah Jazz) Over 2.5 Rebounds (-169)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishingIsaiah Collier is primed for a standout performance on the boards as the Blazers face off against the Jazz. With an impressive average of 3.8 rebounds in his last five away games, he's shown he can step up when it counts. The matchup against Utah has been particularly favorable for him, averaging a solid 6 boards in their last encounters on the road. Let's not overlook his recent form; Collier has converted an eye-popping 7 of his last 8 games when it comes to hitting the over on rebounds. With the Jazz's tendency to give up second chances, Collier's energy and positioning will likely shine through. Given that his expected stat value sits comfortably at 3.78, it's hard to see him falling short of 2.5 in this game. Back the over and watch him thrive in a pivotal away matchup.
Deni Avdija (Portland Trail Blazers) Under 17.5 Rebounds + Assists (-909)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishingAs the Portland Trail Blazers host the Utah Jazz, Deni Avdija's recent performances suggest a cautious approach to his combined rebounds and assists total. While he's shown flashes of brilliance, averaging 10.8 rebounds and 6 assists over his last five games, the numbers tell a different story when he faces off against the Jazz. Historically, Avdija has averaged just 8.8 rebounds and 4 assists against Utah, with his home stats slightly lower at 6.5 rebounds and 4 assists. In this matchup, his expected stat value of 12.45 falls significantly short of the 17.5 mark. Given the Jazz's defensive schemes and Avdija's trend of struggling against them, betting the under feels like a savvy play. With an implied probability of 90.1%, it's clear that the odds are stacked in our favor for this one.
Brice Sensabaugh (Utah Jazz) Under 2.5 Assists (-189)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishingWhen examining Brice Sensabaugh's assist numbers heading into this matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers, it's hard to overlook the trends. While he's shown flashes of playmaking ability, averaging just 1.8 assists in his last five games overall, his away form tells a different story. On the road, he's managed to rack up 2.8 assists, but the data against the Jazz is particularly telling. Historically, he hovers around 2.3 assists, and when playing in Utah, that dips to 3.Moreover, his recent performance is hard to ignore-Sensabaugh has hit the Under 2.5 assists in 8 of his last 9 games. With the Blazers focusing on limiting ball movement and his recent away performance favoring the Under, it feels like a solid bet that he'll struggle to reach that 2.5 mark in this game, making the Under a compelling choice.