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Model picks & player props
Cincinnati Reds
VS
Seattle Mariners

Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 19, 2:31AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
T-Mobile Park, Seattle
Indoor
Wed 22 Jul 2026, 7:40PM
20
Game markets graded
27
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Seattle Mariners -1.5 (Spread)
The model graded 47 markets for Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $1,050 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 50.0%, fair odds 2.00, book price +950, model edge +40.5%. Tip-off Wed 22 Jul 2026, 7:40PM at T-Mobile Park.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Seattle Mariners -3.5 · $100 returned $420

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 754 of 1,520 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 17
Under 5
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
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Our call on this game: 1 pick on tonight's board · logged before tip-offSee tonight's picks

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Seattle Mariners
-8.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Cincinnati Reds

  • Tony Santillan RPOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut
  • Hunter Greene SPOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Abbott SP

Seattle Mariners

  • Taylor Ward LFDay-to-day
  • Bryan Woo SPDay-to-day
  • Matt Brash RPOut
  • Colt Emerson SSOut
  • Cooper Criswell RPOut
  • J.P. Crawford SSOut
  • Carlos Vargas RPOut
  • Cole Wilcox RPOut
  • Luke Raley RFOut
  • Will Wilson 3BOut
  • Logan Evans SPOut

Probable pitcher

Bryce Miller SP
Availability updated Aug 18, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Tyler Stephenson CIN Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Victor Robles Batter - Hits
Victor Robles Batter - Total Bases
Sal Stewart CIN Batter - Total Bases
Dominic Canzone Batter - Total Bases

+ 27 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSeattle MarinersNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Cincinnati Reds L54-1

Seattle Mariners moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Run LineSeattle Mariners run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Cincinnati Reds L54-1

Seattle Mariners spread form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati RedsNo line posted

Seattle Mariners total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSeattle Mariners team totalNo line posted
2.2runs we expect
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Cincinnati Reds L54-1

Seattle Mariners team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners — what the model found

Our model graded 47 betting markets for Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners — 20 on the game itself and 27 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
27
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 47 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 46 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners — recent results

Seattle Mariners have won 3 of their last 5 games; Cincinnati Reds have won 2 of their last 5.

Seattle Mariners — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W3–2HOUAway
L7–10HOUAway
W10–5HOUAway
W1–0NYYAway
L5–10NYYAway
Cincinnati Reds — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–5STLHome
L1–2STLHome
L1–7MIAHome
L4–8MIAHome
W1–0MIAHome

Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Seattle Mariners are scoring 2.0 runs per game (3-2) while Cincinnati Reds are at 4.4 (3-2); Seattle Mariners pitchers are allowing 1.0 earned runs per game versus 1.4 for Cincinnati Reds.

2.0
Seattle Mariners runs/G
4.4
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
Last 5 gamesSeattle MarinersCincinnati Reds
Runs / game2.04.4
Hits / game3.04.2
Home runs / game0.41.2
Walks drawn / game1.20.6
Batter K / game3.23.0
Earned runs allowed / game1.01.4
Pitching K / game3.63.0
Walks allowed / game1.80.6
L5 record3-23-2

Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Seattle Mariners won 1, Cincinnati Reds won 2.

DateSeattle MarinersCincinnati RedsWinner
Jul 2235Cincinnati Reds
Jul 2224Cincinnati Reds
Jul 2180Seattle Mariners

Who’s out or in doubt

17 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Seattle Mariners
PlayerStatus
Taylor Ward LFDAY-TO-DAY
Bryan Woo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Brash RPOUT
Colt Emerson SSOUT
Cooper Criswell RPOUT
J.P. Crawford SSOUT
Carlos Vargas RPOUT
Cole Wilcox RPOUT
Cincinnati Reds
PlayerStatus
Tony Santillan RPOUT
Brandon Williamson SPOUT
Hunter Greene SPOUT
Spencer Steer 1BOUT
Blake Dunn CFOUT
Graham Ashcraft RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners — model preview

Deep dive into Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds stats and odds.

Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds : Over 6.5 Total Runs (-112)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Seattle Mariners host the Cincinnati Reds on July 22, expect a showdown where runs could flow like a summer breeze. Both teams have recently showcased a penchant for offensive fireworks, with the Mariners averaging a solid 4.8 runs per game in their last ten outings. Meanwhile, the Reds have been no slouches either, scoring an impressive 5.2 runs per game during the same stretch. On the mound, while Seattle’s starter has shown flashes of brilliance, he’s also been prone to giving up big innings. The Reds’ lineup, meanwhile, boasts power hitters capable of capitalizing on any mistakes. With the total set at a modest 6.5, it feels like a sweet spot, especially considering the model prediction of nearly eight runs. Given the recent trends and the potential for both lineups to explode, betting on the over seems like a savvy play in what could be a high-scoring affair.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
22 Jul 26 Spread Seattle Mariners +2.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 7 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Spread Seattle Mariners +3 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 6 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Spread Seattle Mariners +3.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Seattle Mariners -0.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Reds vs Mariners, or as Mariners vs Reds. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 22 July 2026 at T-Mobile Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 27 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 3 meetings
Cincinnati Reds 2–1 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
22 Jul 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners2–4Cincinnati Reds
22 Jul 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners3–5Cincinnati Reds
21 Jul 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners8–0Seattle Mariners
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