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The latest Bet Better model pick for Michael King is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +16.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:03PM UTC
MLB

Michael King

SDP

+16.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Under 4.5 -130 (1.77)
+16.5% Edge
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Petco Park, San Diego, California · Outdoor
Fri 10 Jul, 1:40AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
73.0%
Implied Probability
56.5%
Model Edge
+16.5%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed73.0%56.5%1.37+16.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Michael King (SDP) Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-130)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Padres and Diamondbacks square off, all eyes will be on Michael King, who’s been nothing short of a revelation on the mound this season. King has consistently kept hitters guessing with his sharp breaking balls and pinpoint control, allowing just a modest number of hits per outing. With an impressive average of around 3.5 hits allowed in his last several starts, he’s shown an uncanny ability to navigate tough lineups. The Diamondbacks, while they have power, have struggled with consistency against pitchers who can command the zone. They’re swinging at pitches outside the strike zone more than they should, which plays right into King’s strengths. Given the Padres' home advantage and King’s recent form, betting on him to hold the Diamondbacks under 4.5 hits feels like a savvy move. With the momentum on his side and the stakes high, expect King to thrive on the mound tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak2L2095%
O 2.590%
O 3.560%
O 4.570%
O 5.560%
O 6.550%
O 7.530%

Michael King MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Michael King (SDP) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Michael King is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.5% on this pick. Their next game is Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres on Friday 10 July at Petco Park, San Diego. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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