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Model picks & player props
Los Angeles Dodgers
VS
Cleveland Guardians

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cleveland Guardians Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 7:18PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Progressive Field, Cleveland
Outdoor
Wed 28 May 2025, 5:10PM
20
Game markets graded
6
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Under 0.5 (Team Total)
The model graded 26 markets for Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cleveland Guardians (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $1,300 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 15.9%, fair odds 6.30, book price +1200, model edge +8.2%. Tip-off Wed 28 May 2025, 5:10PM at Progressive Field.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total
Under
5.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Kris Bubic SPOut
  • Tyler Glasnow SPOut
  • Will Klein RPOut
  • Blake Snell SPOut
  • Gavin Stone SPOut
  • Bobby Miller SPOut
  • Dalton Rushing COut
  • Ben Casparius RPOut
  • Will Smith COut
  • Brock Stewart RPOut
  • Blake Treinen RPOut
  • Brusdar Graterol RPOut
  • Jake Cousins RPOut

Probable pitcher

Tarik Skubal SP

Cleveland Guardians

  • Slade Cecconi SPOut
  • Shawn Armstrong RPOut
Availability updated Aug 11, 2:10AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cleveland Guardians: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Gabriel Arias CLE Batter -Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Carlos Santana CLE Batter -Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Tommy Edman LAD Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jose Ramirez CLE Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mookie Betts LAD Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCleveland GuardiansNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.8L5 RA3.0Home L53-2vs Los Angeles Dodgers L52-3Free board12-10

Cleveland Guardians moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.8 runs/gm.

Run LineCleveland Guardians run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.8L5 RA3.0Home L53-2vs Los Angeles Dodgers L52-3

Cleveland Guardians spread form: last five 3-2, 3.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles DodgersNo line posted

Cleveland Guardians total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCleveland Guardians team totalNo line posted
3.1runs we expect
L5 RF3.8L5 RA3.0Home L53-2vs Los Angeles Dodgers L52-3

Cleveland Guardians team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.8 runs/gm.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cleveland Guardians — what the model found

Our model graded 26 betting markets for Los Angeles Dodgers at Cleveland Guardians — 20 on the game itself and 6 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
6
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 26 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 25 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cleveland Guardians — recent results

Cleveland Guardians have won 1 of their last 5 games; Los Angeles Dodgers have won 1 of their last 5.

Cleveland Guardians — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–5CHWAway
L3–6CHWAway
W8–2CHWAway
L6–13NYMHome
L5–6NYMHome
Los Angeles Dodgers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W2–1ARIAway
L2–4ARIAway
L3–4ARIAway
L1–5CHCAway
L6–7CHCAway

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Cleveland Guardians
PlayerStatus
Slade Cecconi SPOUT
Shawn Armstrong RPOUT
Los Angeles Dodgers
PlayerStatus
Kris Bubic SPOUT
Tyler Glasnow SPOUT
Will Klein RPOUT
Blake Snell SPOUT
Gavin Stone SPOUT
Bobby Miller SPOUT
Dalton Rushing COUT
Ben Casparius RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cleveland Guardians — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Dodgers. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Carlos Santana. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Dodgers stats and odds.

Carlos Santana (CLE) Over 0.5 Total Bases (-185)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Carlos Santana's recent performance data indicates a promising bet for Over 0.5 in the Batter Total Bases market. Despite an overall current hit streak of zero, Santana's statistics show a stronger performance at home games. His average hits at home in the last 5 games is 0.8, four times higher than his overall average of 0.2. This suggests that Santana has a higher likelihood of hitting at home. Furthermore, he has a record of hitting home runs against the Dodgers, with a L5 vs Opp HR Avg (Batting) of 0.2. This indicates that Santana has a history of scoring against this particular opponent. Therefore, based on his home game performance and historical data against the Dodgers, the bet on Carlos Santana for Over 0.5 in the Batter Total Bases market is a solid choice.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cleveland Guardians in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Dodgers vs Guardians, or as Guardians vs Dodgers. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 28 May 2025 at Progressive Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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