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Model picks & player props
Los Angeles Dodgers
VS
Cleveland Guardians

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cleveland Guardians Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:18AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Progressive Field, Cleveland
Outdoor
Wed 28 May 2025, 5:10PM
20
Game Picks
6
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 0.5 (Team Total Runs)
For Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cleveland Guardians (MLB), model win probability 15.9%, fair odds 6.30, book price +1200, model edge +8.2%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Wed 28 May 2025, 5:10PM at Progressive Field.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Runs
Under
6.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Edwin Diaz RPOut
  • Will Smith COut
  • Enrique Hernandez 1BOut
  • Tyler Glasnow SPOut
  • Blake Snell SPOut
  • Blake Treinen RPOut
  • Bobby Miller SPOut
  • Gavin Stone SPOut
  • Brusdar Graterol RPOut
  • Ben Casparius RPOut
  • Jake Cousins RPOut

Probable pitcher

Emmet Sheehan SP

Cleveland Guardians

  • Angel Martinez LFOut
  • Jose Ramirez 3BOut
  • Tim Herrin RPOut

Probable pitcher

Tanner Bibee SP
Availability updated Jul 20, 11:00PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cleveland Guardians: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Gabriel Arias CLE Batter -Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Carlos Santana CLE Batter -Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Tommy Edman LAD Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jose Ramirez CLE Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mookie Betts LAD Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCleveland GuardiansNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.4L5 RA3.4Home L51-4vs Los Angeles Dodgers L54-1Win rec9-3

Cleveland Guardians moneyline form: last five 2-3, 4.4 runs/gm.

Run LineCleveland Guardians run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.4L5 RA3.4Home L51-4vs Los Angeles Dodgers L54-1ATS8-7

Cleveland Guardians spread form: last five 2-3, 4.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles DodgersNo line posted

Cleveland Guardians total runs form: last five 2-3, 4.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCleveland Guardians team totalNo line posted
3.8implied team total
L5 RF4.4L5 RA3.4Home L51-4vs Los Angeles Dodgers L54-1

Cleveland Guardians team total runs form: last five 2-3, 4.4 runs/gm.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cleveland Guardians — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Dodgers. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Carlos Santana. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Dodgers stats and odds.</p>

Carlos Santana (CLE) Over 0.5 Total Bases (-185)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Carlos Santana's recent performance data indicates a promising bet for Over 0.5 in the Batter Total Bases market. Despite an overall current hit streak of zero, Santana's statistics show a stronger performance at home games. His average hits at home in the last 5 games is 0.8, four times higher than his overall average of 0.2. This suggests that Santana has a higher likelihood of hitting at home. Furthermore, he has a record of hitting home runs against the Dodgers, with a L5 vs Opp HR Avg (Batting) of 0.2. This indicates that Santana has a history of scoring against this particular opponent. Therefore, based on his home game performance and historical data against the Dodgers, the bet on Carlos Santana for Over 0.5 in the Batter Total Bases market is a solid choice.

Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Dodgers : Under 4.5 alternate_team_totals (-161)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The Cleveland Guardians have struggled offensively recently, with an average of 3.8 runs scored in their last five games overall and only 3 runs scored on average in their last five home games. Their batting performance has also been subpar, with an average of 6.6 hits overall and 5.4 hits at home in the last five games. On the other hand, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been strong defensively, allowing an average of only 3.6 runs in their last five games overall and 2.4 runs in their last five away games. The Dodgers' pitchers have also kept the base-on-balls low, with an average of 1.4 overall and 1.6 away in the last five games. Given these statistics, it's reasonable to expect the Guardians to score less than 4.5 runs.

Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Dodgers : Under 5.5 alternate_team_totals (-278)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Cleveland Guardians have been struggling offensively, averaging only 3.8 runs per game in their last five overall and a mere 3 runs per game in their last five home games. Their batting average has been poor with an average of 6.6 hits per game overall and 5.4 hits at home. On the other hand, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been excellent defensively, allowing an average of only 3.6 runs in their last five games overall and just 2.4 runs in their last five away games. Their pitching has been effective, allowing an average of 1.4 walks per game overall and 1.6 walks in away games. Given the Guardians' weak offense and the Dodgers' strong defense, it's statistically likely that the Guardians will score under 5.5 runs in this game.

Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Dodgers : Under 4.5 alternate_team_totals (-164)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Cleveland Guardians have been struggling offensively, averaging only 3.8 runs in their last five games, and 3 runs in their last five home games. Their batting average has also been low, with an average of 6.6 hits overall and only 5.4 hits at home. On the other hand, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been strong defensively, allowing an average of only 3.6 runs in their last five games, and even less, 2.4 runs, in their last five away games. Their pitching has been disciplined, with an average of only 1.4 bases on balls. Considering these statistics, it's reasonable to expect the Guardians to score less than 4.5 runs in this game.

Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Dodgers : Under 3.5 alternate_team_totals (+108)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The Cleveland Guardians have been struggling offensively, particularly at home and against the Dodgers. Their last five games show an average of only 3 runs scored at home and a 1-4 record against the Dodgers. Their batting average also drops at home, with an average of 5.4 hits compared to their overall 6.6. On the other hand, the Dodgers have been strong defensively, especially on the road, allowing an average of just 2.4 runs per game in their last five away games. Their pitching has been disciplined, giving away only 1.6 walks per game on the road. These factors combined suggest that the Guardians will likely score less than 3.5 runs in the upcoming match, making the 'Under 3.5' bet a solid choice.

Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Dodgers : Under 5.5 alternate_team_totals (-294)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on 'Cleveland Guardians Under 5.5' for the Team Total Runs is a good choice given the team's recent performance and opponent's defensive records. The Guardians' batting average has been lower at home with 5.4 hits per game, and they've only managed to score an average of 3 runs per game in their last five home games. This is significantly below the betting line of 5.5. Additionally, they've struggled against the Dodgers, winning only one of their last five encounters. The Dodgers have been defensively sound, allowing only 2.4 runs on average in their last five away games, which further limits the Guardians' scoring opportunities. These factors combined suggest a low probability of the Guardians scoring over 5.5 runs in the upcoming game.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cleveland Guardians in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Wednesday 28 May 2025 at Progressive Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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