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Model picks & player props
Colorado Rockies
VS
Cincinnati Reds

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Outdoor
Sun 13 Jul 2025, 5:40PM
6
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Cincinnati Reds (Moneyline)
For Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds (MLB), model win probability 86.3%, fair odds 1.16, book price -227, model edge +16.9%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 13 Jul 2025, 5:40PM at Great American Ball Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Cincinnati Reds
-227
+ 5 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Cincinnati RedsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Colorado Rockies

  • Jeff Criswell RPOut
  • Brenton Doyle CFOut
  • Jose Quintana SPOut
  • Blas Castano RPOut
  • Jaden Hill RPOut
  • Chase Dollander SPOut
  • Welinton Herrera RPOut
  • McCade Brown SPOut
  • RJ Petit RPOut
  • Pierson Ohl RPOut
  • Kris Bryant DHOut

Probable pitcher

Kyle Freeland SP

Cincinnati Reds

  • Blake Dunn CFOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BDay-to-day
  • Matt McLain 2BOut
  • Tony Santillan RPOut
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut
  • Nick Lodolo SPOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Abbott SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 10:51AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCincinnati RedsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.2Home L53-2vs Colorado Rockies L52-3Win rec4-9

Cincinnati Reds moneyline form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Run LineCincinnati Reds run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.2Home L53-2vs Colorado Rockies L52-3ATS4-10

Cincinnati Reds spread form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado RockiesNo line posted

Cincinnati Reds total runs form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCincinnati Reds team totalNo line posted
3.5implied team total
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.2Home L53-2vs Colorado Rockies L52-3

Cincinnati Reds team total runs form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Cincinnati Reds are scoring 8.0 runs per game (2-3) while Colorado Rockies are at 4.3 (2-3); Cincinnati Reds pitchers are allowing 4.2 earned runs per game versus 2.8 for Colorado Rockies.

8.0
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
4.3
Colorado Rockies runs/G
Last 5 gamesCincinnati RedsColorado Rockies
Runs / game8.04.3
Hits / game12.45.6
Home runs / game2.00.6
Walks drawn / game6.03.9
Batter K / game9.88.0
Earned runs allowed / game4.22.8
Pitching K / game7.45.1
Walks allowed / game3.43.2
L5 record2-32-3

Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies. Includes analysis on key players like Elly De La Cruz. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies stats and odds.</p>

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-370)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under 0.5 bet for Elly De La Cruz's stolen bases is statistically supported. Looking at his recent performance, Cruz's stolen base average is significantly lower at home (0.2) compared to his overall average (1). His performance against the Colorado Rockies also shows a lower average stolen base rate (0.4). Furthermore, the average caught stealing rate by the Rockies is 0.4, indicating a strong defensive play against stolen bases. Additionally, Cruz is currently on a hitless streak both overall and at home, which reduces his opportunities to steal bases. Combining these factors, it is statistically more likely that Cruz will not achieve more than 0.5 stolen bases in the upcoming game.

Brenton Doyle (COL) Over 0.5 Hits (-179)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Brenton Doyle's recent performance statistics suggest a solid bet on him achieving over 0.5 hits in the upcoming game against the Cincinnati Reds. His last five games show an overall average of 1.8 hits per game, well above the 0.5 line. Even when playing away, his average remains high at 1.2 hits, indicating that location doesn't significantly impact his performance. When facing the Reds, he averages 1 hit per game, reinforcing the likelihood of him achieving more than 0.5 hits. Despite a current hit streak of zero, his past performances suggest a strong probability of success. His plate appearances averages are also consistent, ranging from 3.2 to 4, which means he's getting sufficient opportunities to hit. These statistics collectively provide a compelling rationale for betting on Brenton Doyle to achieve over 0.5 hits.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
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Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 13 July 2025 at Great American Ball Park. The model has generated 6 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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