On Friday 2 October 2026, Liverpool play Manchester City in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Manchester City +0 Goal Handicap, priced at -120 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Liverpool vs Manchester City: Manchester City +0 Goal Handicap (-120)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Liverpool prepares to host Manchester City, the form book heavily favors the visitors. City arrives on the back of a perfect five-game run, averaging an impressive 2.6 goals per match, while Liverpool has struggled, managing just 1.4 at home in their last five outings. What makes this matchup intriguing is Liverpool’s recent inconsistency, evident in their home record (1-4-0) and a dismal xG of zero in their last couple of games. City, in contrast, has been creating chances with a solid xG average and a robust attacking strategy that has yielded 17.4 shots per game away. With Liverpool's defensive vulnerabilities and City's offensive prowess, betting on Manchester City at a handicap of 0 seems like a wise move. They’ve shown the ability to deliver against top opponents, and this match could be another showcase of their dominance.

Liverpool vs Manchester City: Manchester City Moneyline (+155)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Liverpool prepares to host Manchester City, the dynamics are pointing toward an intriguing clash. City comes into this match with a perfect away record in their last five outings, scoring an impressive 2.6 goals per game. Meanwhile, Liverpool's home form has been shaky, with just two wins from their last five at Anfield, averaging only 1.4 goals. What stands out is City's recent ability to create chances, averaging 17.4 shots away from home. Their attacking prowess has yielded a substantial xG creation, showcasing their ability to convert opportunities. Liverpool's defensive record at home, allowing an average of 1 goal per match, could very well be exploited by City's relentless offense. Given Manchester City’s current momentum and Liverpool’s struggles, betting on City to secure the win feels like a savvy move in this intense rivalry.

That is how our model reads Liverpool v Manchester City. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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