On Thursday 1 October 2026, Liverpool play Manchester City in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Manchester City +0 Goal Handicap, priced at -120 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Liverpool vs Manchester City: Manchester City +0 Goal Handicap (-120)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Liverpool prepares to host Manchester City, recent form heavily favors the visitors. City is on a remarkable five-game winning streak, averaging an impressive 2.6 goals per match while only conceding one. Their attacking prowess, complemented by a solid xG of nearly 1.5 per game, showcases their ability to dominate opponents, especially away from home. Conversely, Liverpool's home record is shaky at best, with just two wins in their last five outings. They’ve struggled to convert chances, averaging only 1.4 goals per game and an xG that doesn't seem to match past seasons’ standards. With City historically performing well against Liverpool, the odds lean towards a draw at worst for City. Given their current form, backing Manchester City with a handicap of 0 offers a robust opportunity to capitalize on Liverpool's vulnerabilities, making this a compelling bet as they clash at Anfield.

Liverpool vs Manchester City: Manchester City Moneyline (+155)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Liverpool prepares to host Manchester City, recent form paints a compelling picture in favor of the visitors. City has been immaculate on the road, winning all five of their last away matches and averaging a solid 2.6 goals per game. Their attacking prowess, with over 17 shots per match, suggests they’ll penetrate Liverpool’s defense, which has been shaky lately. Meanwhile, Liverpool’s home record of just two wins in their last five matches, combined with a troubling trend of conceding an average of 1 goal per game at Anfield, raises concerns. The Reds are struggling to convert chances into goals, averaging only 1.4 per game despite a decent shot volume. With Manchester City riding high and Liverpool’s vulnerabilities exposed, backing the visitors to come out on top appears to be a savvy play. Expect City to capitalize on their momentum and secure a vital away victory.

That is how our model reads Liverpool v Manchester City. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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