On Thursday 1 October 2026, Liverpool play Manchester City in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Manchester City +0 Goal Handicap, priced at -120 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Liverpool vs Manchester City: Manchester City +0 Goal Handicap (-120)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Liverpool prepares to host Manchester City, the form book heavily favors the visitors. City has been in scintillating form, boasting a perfect five wins in their last five games, averaging 2.6 goals per match. Their attacking prowess is reflected in their xG numbers, with a sharp 17.4 shots per game and a solid conversion rate. On the flip side, Liverpool's home record shows cracks, with just two wins from their last five home games. They’ve struggled to create consistent scoring opportunities, averaging only 1.4 goals and showing defensive vulnerabilities, conceding an average of 1 goal at Anfield. Given City's momentum and Liverpool's stuttering form, betting on Manchester City to cover the handicap seems like a savvy move. With City’s recent dominance in head-to-head encounters, they could very well walk away with at least a point, making the '0' line a compelling play.

Liverpool vs Manchester City: Manchester City Moneyline (+155)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As we gear up for this clash between Liverpool and Manchester City, recent form strongly favors the visitors. City arrives with a perfect five-game streak, scoring an impressive 2.6 goals per match while conceding just one. Meanwhile, Liverpool's home form has been shaky, with only two wins in their last five and a paltry scoring average of 1.4. What’s telling here is Liverpool’s inconsistency, especially at Anfield, where they’ve managed just a solitary win in their last five home matches against top-tier opponents. In contrast, City's attacking prowess and solid defense have them sitting pretty. With an xG of nearly 2 per away match, they are more likely to convert chances into goals. Betting on Manchester City to win feels like a smart play as they look to capitalize on Liverpool’s vulnerabilities and extend their winning run.

That is how our model reads Liverpool v Manchester City. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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