On Tuesday 29 September 2026, Liverpool play Manchester City in the EPL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Manchester City +0.25 Goal Handicap, priced at -189 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to host Manchester City, the recent form of both teams tells a compelling story. City arrives with a perfect five-match winning streak, consistently racking up an impressive 2.6 goals per game. They’ve been efficient on the road, averaging 2 goals while only conceding 1. Meanwhile, Liverpool's home form has been shaky, with just two wins in their last five and a troubling trend of averaging only 1.4 goals at Anfield. What really stands out is City’s dominance in their recent head-to-heads, boasting a superior xG and shot creation ability. With Liverpool's defense allowing 1.8 goals per game recently, City’s attacking prowess could exploit these weaknesses. Betting on Manchester City at a 0.25 handicap seems prudent, given their current form and Liverpool's struggles. Expect City to not just compete but potentially come away with a crucial victory in this high-stakes clash.
Liverpool vs Manchester City: Both Teams To Score: No (+165)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
When Liverpool meets Manchester City, expectations are high, but recent form suggests a lower-scoring affair. Liverpool has struggled at home lately, averaging just 1.4 goals across their last five matches, while their defense has been surprisingly solid, conceding only 0.8 goals on average in that span. On the other side, City comes in hot with a stellar away record and a healthy 2.0 goals scored per game recently. However, they too have faced challenges breaking down resilient defenses like Liverpool's. Both teams' xG stats reflect an intriguing trend; Liverpool's expected goals have dipped to zero in their last five, indicating a severe lack of creativity. With Liverpool's recent home struggles and City’s tendency to grind out results, going for “No” on both teams to score feels like the right call in this tactical battle. Expect a keenly contested match that might just end with a clean sheet for one side.
Liverpool vs Manchester City: Under 4.5 Total Goals (-455)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
As Liverpool hosts Manchester City in a clash of titans, the smart money leans towards under 4.5 goals. Recent performances tell a compelling story: Liverpool's attack has sputtered, averaging just 1.4 goals at home in their last five matches, while their defense has been solid, conceding only 1 goal per game. Meanwhile, City, though prolific overall, has faced a dip in xG against quality opponents, emphasizing their recent struggles to break through tight defenses. Both teams are familiar with each other, having played to low-scoring affairs recently, with four of their last five encounters finishing with under 4.5 goals. Given Liverpool's emphasis on defensive organization paired with City's ability to adapt tactically, a cagey contest seems likely. Expect a tactical battle that keeps the scoreline in check, making the under a savvy pick as both teams look to secure points rather than engage in a shootout.
That is how our model reads Liverpool v Manchester City. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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