On Tuesday 29 September 2026, Liverpool play Manchester City in the EPL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Manchester City +0.25 Goal Handicap, priced at -189 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
As Liverpool welcomes Manchester City, recent form heavily favors the visitors. City is riding a five-match winning streak, scoring an impressive average of 2.6 goals per game, while Liverpool has struggled at home, averaging just 1.4 goals in their last five, with a troubling 2-3-0 record. Moreover, City's away performances have been stellar, not only scoring consistently but also limiting opponents to just one goal per match on average. Liverpool's defense has shown cracks, conceding an average of 1 goal at home, which could play into City's hands. With City's attacking prowess and Liverpool’s recent inconsistency, backing Manchester City on a 0.25 handicap feels like a calculated move. The odds reflect a solid chance for City to dominate, making this a compelling bet in a match that could tilt in their favor.
Liverpool vs Manchester City: Both Teams To Score: No (+165)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to host Manchester City, the narrative of their recent performances tells us a compelling story, particularly in terms of scoring. Liverpool, despite their attacking flair, has averaged just 1.4 goals at home in the last five matches, with an xG of zero—indicating a noticeable struggle to convert chances. Their defense has been tight, allowing only 1 goal per game. On the flip side, City has been formidable on the road, netting 2 goals per game, but their recent matchups against Liverpool have shown that both teams have often canceled each other out, with neither side consistently finding the net. Given Liverpool's home defensive resilience and their current inconsistency in front of goal, betting on "No" for both teams to score seems like the prudent play. Expect a tactical battle where defenses may well outshine the attackers.
Liverpool vs Manchester City: Under 4.5 Total Goals (-455)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
As Liverpool gears up to face Manchester City, the betting landscape hints at a tightly contested affair, one that leans towards fewer goals. Liverpool has averaged just 1.4 goals in their last five matches, while conceding a mere 0.8 on home turf. Their recent xG stats also reflect a struggle to create clear-cut chances, with a stark average of 0. On the flip side, City’s attacking prowess has shone, but they've also been efficient in defense, allowing only about one goal per match away from home. Given the historical context, with their last five encounters yielding mixed scoring but often tight results, an “Under 4.5” total seems prudent. Both teams will likely be cautious, focusing on possession and tactical discipline, which suggests that a low-scoring game is on the cards.
That is how our model reads Liverpool v Manchester City. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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