Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 13.5 Rebounds (-139)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to face the Portland Trail Blazers, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but this could be a game where he falls short on the boards. While his recent average of 15.2 rebounds might suggest a dominant performance, context matters. At home, Jokic has averaged 14.6 rebounds in his last five games, but he's been trending down against the Blazers. Historically, he's pulled down just 11.8 boards over his recent matchups with Portland, and even at home, that number creeps up to only 13.2. With the Nuggets often finding their rhythm through ball movement rather than relying solely on Jokic's rebounding prowess, it's easy to envision him finishing under the 13.5 mark. Given his current form and the matchup nuances, taking the under feels like a smart play here.

Deni Avdija (Portland Trail Blazers) Under 6.5 Rebounds (+110)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As Deni Avdija heads into this matchup against the Denver Nuggets, there's a compelling case for targeting the under on his rebound total of 6.5. Despite a solid recent average of 7.8 boards per game, his away performance tells a different story-he's pulling down just 5.4 rebounds against the Blazers when on the road. The Nuggets, with their dominant frontcourt, present a tough challenge, and Avdija's underwhelming 5.84 expected rebounds suggests we might see him fall short. With a hit rate of just 8 out of his last 11 away games, the numbers indicate he's likely to struggle against Denver's size and rebounding prowess. Given the stakes and the trend, it feels like a smart move to lean towards the under on Avdija's rebounds tonight.

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