Dallas Cowboys vs Baltimore Ravens: +3 Point Spread (-112)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on the Dallas Cowboys to cover a -3 spread appears favorable based on recent performance metrics. Over the last five games, the Cowboys have averaged 24.2 points scored and allowed 27.8 points against, leading to a negative point differential of -3.6. However, they have shown a solid passing efficiency with an EPA (Expected Points Added) of 9.59 for passing plays, which is competitive. In contrast, the away team's recent scoring average of 29.4 points with a positive point differential of 4.4 suggests they are formidable. Yet, their defense has shown vulnerabilities, with a higher EPA against (5.45). The Cowboys' increased total yards (336.4) alongside their offensive explosiveness (24.22%) could exploit these defensive weaknesses. Moreover, the Cowboys have a slight model edge of 0.17, suggesting they can perform adequately to cover the spread. Their home advantage and recent improvement in total yards and efficiency provide further

Dak Prescott (DAL) Under 14.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Dak Prescott to go Under 14.5 rushing yards against the Baltimore Ravens is supported by several key statistical trends. In his last five games, Prescott averages just 8.4 rushing yards, well below the 14.5 threshold. His overall hit rate for rushing yards in the last three games is 2/3, equating to a 66.7% success rate, and he has consistently hit the Under in home games (4/5 in the last five). Moreover, Prescott's historical performance against the Ravens shows he has only rushed for 10 yards in their last meeting, which strengthens the case for the Under. The Ravens' defense is known for its ability to contain quarterbacks, further complicating Prescott's chances of surpassing the line. With a model edge of 0.12, the statistical backing suggests a strong likelihood that Prescott will remain under 14.5 rushing yards in this matchup.

Dallas Cowboys vs Baltimore Ravens: Moneyline (+130)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on the Dallas Cowboys in this matchup is supported by several key statistical insights. The Cowboys have struggled recently, with a -3.6 point differential in their last five games, averaging only 24.2 points while allowing 27.8. However, the model edge of 0.103 indicates a slight advantage for the Cowboys in this matchup. In contrast, the away team has been more productive, scoring an average of 29.4 points with a +4.4 point differential over the same timeframe. They also boast stronger EPA metrics, particularly in rushing, where they show a significantly positive EPA (6.45) compared to Dallas's negative rushing EPA (-1.46). While both teams have similar overall records in their last five games (2-3), the Cowboys' explosive rate against (0.279) highlights defensive vulnerabilities. Given these statistics, the Cowboys' home field advantage and slight model edge make them a strategic bet in the h2h market.

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