On Saturday 12 September 2026, Chelsea play Hull City in the EPL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Lucas Herrington (Hull City) Over 0.5 Shots, priced at +200 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Lucas Herrington (Hull City) Over 0.5 Shots (+200)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Chelsea prepares to host Hull City, all eyes should be on Lucas Herrington, who’s primed for a standout performance. Despite his recent lack of shots, the context of this matchup suggests he’ll break out of his shell. Chelsea, known for their high pressing and attacking flair, often leaves room for opponents to exploit. With Hull likely to sit deep, Herrington will be crucial in linking play and finding those elusive shooting opportunities. His previous games may not reflect it, but the stage is set for him to at least register a shot. The implied probability of him taking one is promising at 33.3%, especially in an environment ripe for chances. Given Chelsea's shaky defense this season, Herrington could seize the moment. At over 0.5 shots, this feels like a smart play, as he has the talent to make a significant impact on the game—even if it’s just with a single attempt.
Lewie Coyle (Hull City) Over 0.5 Shots on Target (+950)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Hull City gears up to face Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, keep an eye on Lewie Coyle to sneak a shot on target. While his recent stats might not scream "goal threat," context is key. Chelsea’s defense, despite its reputation, has been known to allow surprising chances, and Coyle, as a right-back, has the freedom to join attacks. His average of 0.2 shots on target away from home might seem modest, but he’s been gradually finding his footing in an offensive role. With Hull likely to spend substantial time defending, Coyle could seize the opportunity to break forward. This match presents a unique scenario where he could exploit gaps left by Chelsea’s attacking intent. Given the odds and a solid narrative around his potential, betting on Coyle to register over 0.5 shots on target is a savvy play that could yield surprising returns.
Lucas Herrington (Hull City) Over 1.5 Shots (+1400)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Hull City gears up to face Chelsea, keep a keen eye on Lucas Herrington for the Over 1.5 total shots prop. While his recent numbers may suggest he’s been quiet—zero shots in his last five—this matchup presents a golden opportunity. Playing away at Stamford Bridge, Herrington is likely to find space against a Chelsea side that can be vulnerable to dynamic attackers. The Blues, while formidable, have shown cracks in their defensive armor, particularly against teams that press forward. With Hull needing to assert themselves, expect Herrington to be more involved in the attack. Remember, even a struggling player can spark to life in the right circumstances, and this game is ripe for that. The odds are enticing for a player looking to break out, and with Hull's attacking intent, it's reasonable to forecast that Herrington will at least find his way to two shots as he looks to make a statement.
That is how our model reads Chelsea v Hull City. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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