On Friday 11 September 2026, Chelsea play Hull City in the EPL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Lucas Herrington (Hull City) Over 0.5 Shots, priced at +200 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Lucas Herrington (Hull City) Over 0.5 Shots (+200)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Lucas Herrington steps into Stamford Bridge for the clash against Chelsea, it’s hard to overlook the potential for him to make his mark. While his recent form shows a blank slate, this match offers a unique opportunity. Chelsea's attacking style tends to stretch defenses, often forcing opponents into desperate situations. Hull City may find themselves on the back foot, allowing Herrington some much-needed space to unleash a shot. The implied probability of 33.3% on him taking at least one shot might seem modest, but when you consider the tactical dynamics at play, it feels more like a hidden gem. With Chelsea pushing for goals, the likelihood of Herrington finding himself in the right place at the right time increases significantly. So, betting on him to exceed 0.5 shots could pay off handsomely—after all, it only takes one moment to change the game.
Lewie Coyle (Hull City) Over 0.5 Shots on Target (+950)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Hull City heads to Stamford Bridge, Lewie Coyle stands out as an interesting player to watch. While his recent form shows he hasn't been hitting the target often—averaging just 0.2 shots on target away from home—there's reason to believe he might break through against Chelsea. The Blues have been vulnerable at the back, especially against teams that press high, creating opportunities for defenders to get involved in the attack. Coyle's average of 0.4 shots per game away suggests he does get forward and take risks. With Chelsea expected to dominate possession, Hull will likely look to counter, giving Coyle chances to venture into the final third and potentially fire one on goal. Given the odds on this bet and Chelsea's current defensive frailties, targeting Coyle for over 0.5 shots on target feels like a savvy play in what could be a dynamic match.
Lucas Herrington (Hull City) Over 1.5 Shots (+1400)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Chelsea prepares to host Hull City, all eyes should be on Lucas Herrington, especially for the Over 1.5 shots prop. While his recent stats might not scream confidence—averaging zero shots per game in his last five outings—let’s dive deeper. This matchup presents a golden opportunity for Herrington to break out, particularly as Hull City tends to concede space and chances to opposing attackers. Chelsea's dynamic attacking style can create opportunities, and with their midfield's creative flair, Herrington is likely to find himself in positions to shoot, even if he hasn't capitalized on those chances recently. The odds suggest a potential value play here; a player with a chance to surprise against a vulnerable defense can often exceed expectations. Given the circumstances, targeting Herrington for Over 1.5 shots could yield a rewarding outcome, especially in an environment like Stamford Bridge where the atmosphere can inspire a player looking to make an impact.
That is how our model reads Chelsea v Hull City. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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