On July 31, 2026 our model has run Boston Red Sox at Athletics and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Sonny Gray (CIN) Under 3.5 Earned Runs (-455), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.
Willson Contreras (CHC) Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-164)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
As the Athletics gear up to face the Red Sox, all eyes might be on the offensive firepower, but let’s take a closer look at Willson Contreras. While he’s shown flashes of brilliance, his recent form hasn’t exactly set the world on fire, especially against left-handed pitchers like the Red Sox's Chris Sale. Contreras has struggled to make consistent contact, posting a lower batting average in the last month and finding it tough to drive in runs when it matters most.
Moreover, the A's lineup is notorious for being streaky, and tonight's matchup hints at a potential struggle for run production. Given the circumstances, taking the under on Contreras' hits, runs, and RBIs at 1.5 feels like a savvy play. With a model prediction hovering around 1.31, the odds are leaning in favor of a quieter night for Contreras, making the under a compelling angle in this matchup.
Donovan Walton (LAA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-278)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
As the Oakland Athletics host the Boston Red Sox, the spotlight shifts to Donovan Walton, who’s been struggling to find his rhythm lately. With just a modest.216 batting average against right-handers this season, Walton faces a tough matchup against Boston’s ace, who has been dazzling on the mound. In fact, the Red Sox’s pitching staff has limited opponents to a mere.220 batting average, showcasing their ability to stifle batters who don’t have a solid track record.
Moreover, Walton’s recent performance has been lackluster, with several games in which he failed to even reach a total of 1.5 bases. Given the way Boston has been shutting down hitters and the way Walton has been flailing at the plate, betting on him to stay under 1.5 total bases feels like a savvy play. With a projected output of just 0.76, the odds are certainly in our favor here.
Sonny Gray (CIN) Under 3.5 Earned Runs (-455)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
As the Athletics gear up to host the Red Sox, all eyes should be on Sonny Gray on the mound. Gray has been in stellar form lately, showcasing a remarkable ability to keep earned runs to a minimum. With a recent stretch that has seen him allow fewer than four earned runs in his last handful of starts, he's clearly found his groove.
The Red Sox lineup, while potent, has shown vulnerability against pitchers with command like Gray, particularly when facing off against guys who can mix speeds and work the edges of the zone. Given his recent performances and Boston's fluctuating offensive consistency, betting on Gray to hold the Red Sox to under 3.5 earned runs feels like a smart play.
In a matchup where Gray’s control shines and the A’s defense backs him up, expect a low-scoring affair as he aims to silence the Boston bats.
Willson Contreras (CHC) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-227)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
As the Athletics gear up to face the Red Sox, all eyes will be on Willson Contreras, but betting on him to go over 1.5 total bases might be a stretch. Despite his impressive power, recent trends suggest he’s been struggling at the plate against right-handed pitching, especially in high-pressure situations like this one. The Red Sox’s starter, with his solid strikeout rate, has been particularly effective against hitters like Contreras, limiting their ability to find gaps.
Moreover, the Oakland Coliseum is notoriously tough on hitters, and with the A’s having a shaky offense lately, Contreras might not get the opportunities he needs to rack up those bases. Given these factors, the under on his total bases feels like the smarter play, aligning well with his recent performance and the overall dynamics of this matchup. Expecting Contreras to stay below the 1.5 mark seems not just prudent but quite plausible.
Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-204)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
As the Athletics gear up to face the Red Sox, all eyes will be on Caleb Durbin, but betting on him to go over 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs feels like a stretch. Durbin has shown flashes of potential, but he’s been inconsistent lately, with just a handful of multi-stat games this season.
The A's lineup has struggled to generate consistent offense, particularly against lefties, and with Boston's Chris Sale on the mound, it’s a tough matchup. Sale’s ability to stifle batters, combined with the Athletics' tendency to leave runners on base, paints a clear picture. Add in Durbin’s recent slump where he hasn’t been driving in runs or getting on base consistently, and the under feels like the smart play here. In a low-scoring affair, expecting Durbin to exceed that mark seems overly optimistic.
Andruw Monasterio Under 1.5 Total Bases (-385)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
As the Athletics host the Red Sox, all eyes should be on Andruw Monasterio, whose recent performance suggests he might struggle to clear the 1.5 total bases mark. Despite some flashes of potential, Monasterio has faced tough pitching lately, and the Red Sox are sending a formidable starter to the mound.
Boston’s ace has been particularly effective against left-handed hitters, which bodes ill for Monasterio, who often finds himself in the lineup against righties. Adding to the challenge, Monasterio’s recent stats show a dip in power production, with just a handful of extra-base hits over the last few weeks.
With the Athletics in a slump offensively and Monasterio likely to see fewer favorable matchups, betting the under on his total bases feels like a wise move. It’s a perfect storm of favorable pitching and recent trends pointing toward a quiet night at the plate for him.
That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.