Darcy Fogarty (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-588)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Fogarty is in the form of his life, and the numbers make this line look almost too easy to clear. He's averaging 3.2 goals per game in his last five away fixtures — nearly six times the 0.5 threshold — with a remarkable 4.0 shots at goal per game and an 83.6% goal accuracy away from home. That conversion rate is elite, meaning when he gets his hands on the ball inside 50, he's punishing it. His 2.4 marks inside 50 per away game underpin the volume, and his score involvement average of 5.8 confirms he's consistently in the action.
The model projects 2 goals with a 4.5% edge over the implied 85.5% probability baked into the $1.17 price. What really seals it is the streak: Fogarty has hit this line in 9 consecutive games overall and 6 straight away — a trend grounded in genuine underlying output, not variance.