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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Fogarty is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 93 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 93%, implied 88%, edge +4.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 26, 1:57PM UTC
AFL

Darcy Fogarty

Adelaide Crows

+4.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -769 (1.13) · $100→$113
+4.6% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
93 in 100
Predicted
1.7 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 93.1% · the book's price implies 88.5% · gap +4.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals93.1%88.5%1.07+4.6%

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AI Analysis

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Darcy Fogarty (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Darcy Fogarty is primed to snag a goal and keep his scoring streak alive when the Adelaide Crows hit the road to face the Sydney Swans at the SCG. Fogarty's recent form has been red-hot, averaging an impressive 2.2 goals in his last five away games, with a stellar 59.3% goal accuracy. His ability to impact the scoreboard is further highlighted by his consistent involvement in the attacking plays, averaging 5.4 score involvements per game. Facing the Swans, Fogarty has historically found success, averaging 1 goal per game in their last five encounters. With a current hit streak of 5 and a flawless 4/4 hit rate in away games, Fogarty is a strong bet to continue his scoring spree and bag at least one goal in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Darcy Fogarty averaged 10.9 disposals, 1.8 goals and 4.8 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

10.9
Disposals
1.8
Goals
4.8
Marks
1.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Sydney Swans), Darcy Fogarty recorded 11 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Sydney Swans11050
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide7221
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs9580
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats8142
28 Jul 24Hawthorn8031
19 Jul 24Essendon17481
13 Jul 24St Kilda9130
7 Jul 24Brisbane Lions10251
29 Jun 24GWS GIANTS13362
15 Jun 24Sydney Swans8242
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows Goals 0.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Darcy Fogarty (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Fogarty is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.6% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans on Friday 17 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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