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The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Fogarty is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 93%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +4.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 6, 10:06AM UTC
AFL

Darcy Fogarty

Adelaide Crows

+4.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -769 (1.13)
+4.6% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
93.1%
Implied Probability
88.5%
Model Edge
+4.6%
Predicted Value
1.7 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals93.1%88.5%1.07+4.6%

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AI Analysis

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Darcy Fogarty (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Darcy Fogarty is primed to snag a goal and keep his scoring streak alive when the Adelaide Crows hit the road to face the Sydney Swans at the SCG. Fogarty's recent form has been red-hot, averaging an impressive 2.2 goals in his last five away games, with a stellar 59.3% goal accuracy. His ability to impact the scoreboard is further highlighted by his consistent involvement in the attacking plays, averaging 5.4 score involvements per game. Facing the Swans, Fogarty has historically found success, averaging 1 goal per game in their last five encounters. With a current hit streak of 5 and a flawless 4/4 hit rate in away games, Fogarty is a strong bet to continue his scoring spree and bag at least one goal in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
10avg disposals recent
Season best20
Disposals last 10avg 10 · hi 17 · lo 7
81310917889711

Darcy Fogarty has a disposals high of 20 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
2avg goals recent
Season best5
Goals last 10avg 2 · hi 5 · lo 0
2321401520

Darcy Fogarty has a goals high of 5 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows Goals 0.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Darcy Fogarty (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Fogarty is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.6% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans on Friday 17 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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