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The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Fogarty is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 93%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +4.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 8:09AM UTC
AFL

Darcy Fogarty

Adelaide Crows

+4.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -769 (1.13)
+4.6% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul, 9:40AM
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Model Probability
93.1%
Implied Probability
88.5%
Model Edge
+4.6%
Predicted Value
1.7 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals93.1%—88.5%1.07+4.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Darcy Fogarty (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Darcy Fogarty stands out as a prime candidate for the Over 0.5 mark against the Sydney Swans. In his last five games, Fogarty has been on fire, averaging a stellar 2.2 goals per game when playing away. His accuracy in front of the big sticks sits at an impressive 59.3%, showcasing his ability to convert opportunities into points. With an average of 3.2 shots at goal per game in his recent away fixtures, Fogarty is consistently getting himself in scoring positions. Moreover, he's not just a solo act; averaging 5.4 score involvements per game highlights his impact on the Crows' attacking plays. With Fogarty's current form and goal-scoring prowess, hitting over 0.5 goals in this matchup seems like a solid bet to make.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs Sydney SwansO 0.5 -769+4.6% edge
80%hit L10 O 0.5
2.8avg goals L5
Away2.2vs Sydney Swans1Season best5
O 0.580%
O 1.560%
O 2.520%
O 3.520%
O 4.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)8 / 10 hit
2321401520

Darcy Fogarty has gone over 0.5 goals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 2.8 goals, best 5). Current line: Over 0.5 at -769, model edge +4.6%.

DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
11.8avg disposals L5
Away12vs Sydney Swans8.8Season best20
O 9.590%
O 10.570%
O 11.530%
O 12.520%
O 13.520%
O 14.510%
Game log vs line (O 11.5)avg 10 · hi 17 · lo 7
81310917889711

Darcy Fogarty has gone over 11.5 disposals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 11.8 disposals, best 20).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows Goals 0.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
26 Mar 26 Adelaide Crows @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -385 ✓ HIT
26 Mar 26 Adelaide Crows @ Geelong Cats Disposals 9.5 Over -172 ✗ MISS
20 Mar 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Darcy Fogarty (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Fogarty is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.6% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans on Friday 17 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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