Darcy Fogarty (Adelaide Crows) Over 9.5 Disposals (-169)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Fogarty is a strong play here against Brisbane at the Gabba. The model projects him for 12.4 disposals against a line of 9.5, generating a 12.4% edge at odds of $1.59 — meaningful value when the implied probability sits at just 62.9%. What makes this compelling is how consistently he's backed the model up in road games: his L5 away disposals average is 13.6, and he's cleared 9.5 in five of his last six away fixtures. The overall picture is just as solid — 11 of his last 12 games have gone over this line, and he's on a two-game streak right now.
The breakdown of his away form shows genuine ball-winning substance: 9.4 kicks and 4.2 handballs per game away, with 277 metres gained and a 76% disposal efficiency suggesting he's not just accumulating but using it well. The 9.5 line looks soft against that body of work.