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AFL

Heath Chapman

Fremantle

+2.2% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -667 (1.15)
+2.2% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney
Sun 6 Jul, 3:10AM
Model Probability
89.2%
Implied Probability
87.0%
Model Edge
+2.2%
Predicted Value
15.7 Disposals

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Heath Chapman (Fremantle) Over 9.5 Disposals (-667)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Heath Chapman's recent away form, averaging 15 disposals over his last five games, makes him a strong contender to surpass the line of 9.5 disposals set by sportsbet. With a consistent performance in contested possessions, kicks, and handballs, Chapman's ability to intercept and gain meters further supports this bet. His current hit streak of 3 away games exceeding 9.5 disposals showcases his reliability. Facing the Sydney Swans, where he has historically averaged 12 disposals, provides an opportunity for Chapman to showcase his ball-winning capabilities. Coupled with a solid disposalefficiency of 80.0%, the statistical model's prediction of 15.7 disposals with a low standard deviation of 5 reinforces the likelihood of him hitting the over in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (8 picks) 100.0% (8/8)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
06 Jul 25 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 9.5 Over -667 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 25 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 9.5 Over -625 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 25 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 9.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 25 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
06 Jul 25 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
06 Jul 25 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending

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