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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Heath Chapman is Over 1.5 on Tackles.
On Tackles, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 71%, the price says 69%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 26, 11:10AM UTC
AFL

Heath Chapman

Fremantle

Value call

Heath Chapman (Fremantle) has one live pick today: Tackles Over 1.5 that pays $144 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Tackles Over 1.5 -227 (1.44) · $100→$144
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Apr 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
2.4 Tackles
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 70.7% · the book's price implies 69.4% · gap +1.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Tackles70.7%—69.4%1.41+1.3%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Heath Chapman Over 1.5 Tackles (-227)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle has been getting their hands on the ball more often, but they struggle a bit when it comes to winning contested situations. Heath Chapman, who plays for Fremantle, has shown he can pile up tackles, especially in high-pressure moments. With Fremantle's tendency to get the ball inside the 50 more often, there's a good chance he'll be busy trying to stop Brisbane's attacks. However, Brisbane wins the contested ball more than Fremantle, which means there could be moments when they break free. Still, with Chapman's tackling skills and the way the game is shaping up, betting on him to get over 1.5 tackles feels like a solid pick. Just remember, it's not a guarantee he'll grab that number, but the signs point in a good direction.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Heath Chapman averaged 16.1 disposals, 0.1 goals and 5.8 marks per game across 16 games in 2024.

16.1
Disposals
0.1
Goals
5.8
Marks
1.8
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Heath Chapman has cleared 10.5 disposals in 70% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o10.570%
o11.570%
o12.560%
o14.550%
o15.550%
o17.520%
o18.520%
o19.520%
o21.510%
o22.50%
o24.50%
o25.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Heath Chapman is averaging 17.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

17.2
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Heath Chapman recorded 20 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Port Adelaide20061
17 Aug 24GWS GIANTS17073
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats22091
4 Aug 24Essendon11021
27 Jul 24West Coast Eagles12023
21 Jul 24Melbourne12012
13 Jul 24Hawthorn19090
6 Jul 24Richmond14181
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans12041
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS16066
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Tackles — — — Pending

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About This Player

Heath Chapman (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Heath Chapman is Over 1.5 on Tackles. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.3% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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