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AFL

Heath Chapman

Fremantle

Value call

Heath Chapman (Fremantle) has one live pick today: over 1.5 tackles that pays $145 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
62 in 100
Predicted
2.5 tackles
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 61.5% · before adjusting for past results 73.7% · the book's price implies 69.0% · gap -7.4%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 2:30 PM AEST
Heath Chapman
over 1.5 tackles
Tackles Over 1.5 -222 (1.45) · $100→$145
Value call
HIGHWins about 62 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$14.50 Odds-222
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Heath Chapman is Over 1.5 on Tackles.
On Tackles, our numbers say this bet wins about 62 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 62%, the price says 69%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 16, 8:00PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Apr 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Tackles73.7%61.5%69.0%1.63+4.7%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Heath Chapman Over 1.5 Tackles (-222)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers face off against Brisbane Lions, and this matchup shows some interesting signs for Heath Chapman. He's been active on the field, and our data suggests he could rack up more than 1.5 tackles. The numbers show that he usually gets involved a lot, making solid plays during the game. The biggest risk here is that both teams are pretty close in performance, which can sometimes lead to less action. Still, Chapman's recent form points to a good chance of him exceeding that tackle mark. With the game taking place at MCG, it should be an exciting one to watch!

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Heath Chapman averaged 16.1 disposals, 0.1 goals and 5.8 marks per game across 16 games in 2024.

16.1
Disposals
0.1
Goals
5.8
Marks
1.8
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Heath Chapman has cleared 10.5 disposals in 70% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o10.570%
o11.570%
o12.560%
o14.550%
o15.550%
o17.520%
o18.520%
o19.520%
o21.510%
o22.50%
o24.50%
o25.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Heath Chapman is averaging 17.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

17.2
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Heath Chapman recorded 20 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Port Adelaide20061
17 Aug 24GWS GIANTS17073
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats22091
4 Aug 24Essendon11021
27 Jul 24West Coast Eagles12023
21 Jul 24Melbourne12012
13 Jul 24Hawthorn19090
6 Jul 24Richmond14181
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans12041
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS16066
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Tackles 1.5 Over -222 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Heath Chapman (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Heath Chapman is Over 1.5 on Tackles. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.7% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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