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The latest Bet Better model pick for Heath Chapman is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 87%, for a model edge of +2.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:17PM UTC
AFL

Heath Chapman

Fremantle

+2.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -667 (1.15)
+2.2% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sun 6 Jul, 3:10AM
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Model Probability
89.2%
Implied Probability
87.0%
Model Edge
+2.2%
Predicted Value
15.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals89.2%—87.0%1.12+2.2%

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AI Analysis

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Heath Chapman (Fremantle) Over 9.5 Disposals (-667)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Heath Chapman is set to shine in the upcoming game against Sydney Swans based on his recent form. With a model prediction of 15.7 disposals and a solid average of 15 disposals in his last five away games, Chapman's consistent performance suggests he can exceed the set line of 9.5 disposals. His strong stats in kicks (9.6) and disposal efficiency (80.0%) further support his ability to impact the game. Additionally, facing an opponent he averages 14.8 disposals against, Chapman's current form with a three-game hit streak and 100% hit rate in away games make him a reliable choice to snag plenty of possessions, making the Over bet enticing.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
15.5avg disposals recent
Season best24
Disposals last 10avg 15.5 · hi 22 · lo 11
16121419121211221720

Heath Chapman has a disposals high of 24 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Heath Chapman (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Heath Chapman is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.2% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Sunday 6 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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