Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Heath Chapman is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 89 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 89%, implied 87%, edge +2.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 12:16AM UTC
AFL
Heath Chapman
Fremantle
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 9.5
-667 (1.15) · $100→$115
+2.2% Edge
Fremantle Dockers
@
Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sun 6 Jul, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Apr 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
89 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 89.2% · the book's price implies 87.0% · gap +2.2%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 89.2% | — | 87.0% | 1.12 | +2.2% |
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Heath Chapman (Fremantle) Over 9.5 Disposals (-667)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Heath Chapman is set to shine in the upcoming game against Sydney Swans based on his recent form. With a model prediction of 15.7 disposals and a solid average of 15 disposals in his last five away games, Chapman's consistent performance suggests he can exceed the set line of 9.5 disposals. His strong stats in kicks (9.6) and disposal efficiency (80.0%) further support his ability to impact the game. Additionally, facing an opponent he averages 14.8 disposals against, Chapman's current form with a three-game hit streak and 100% hit rate in away games make him a reliable choice to snag plenty of possessions, making the Over bet enticing.
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Season averages (2024)
Heath Chapman averaged 16.1 disposals, 0.1 goals and 5.8 marks per game across 16 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Heath Chapman recorded 20 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 25 Aug 24 | Port Adelaide | 20 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
| 17 Aug 24 | GWS GIANTS | 17 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 10 Aug 24 | Geelong Cats | 22 | 0 | 9 | 1 |
| 4 Aug 24 | Essendon | 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 27 Jul 24 | West Coast Eagles | 12 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 21 Jul 24 | Melbourne | 12 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 Jul 24 | Hawthorn | 19 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| 6 Jul 24 | Richmond | 14 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| 29 Jun 24 | Sydney Swans | 12 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| 23 Jun 24 | Gold Coast SUNS | 16 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Heath Chapman (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Heath Chapman is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.2% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Sunday 6 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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