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Model picks & player props
Adelaide Crows
VS
Collingwood Magpies

Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 9:17PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sat 14 Mar 2026, 8:35AM
10
Game markets graded
13
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Adelaide Crows 6.5 (Spread)
The model graded 23 markets for Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $190 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 61.5%, fair odds 1.63, book price -111, model edge +8.8%. Tip-off Sat 14 Mar 2026, 8:35AM at MCG.

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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Adelaide Crows
+6.5
+ 9 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Adelaide CrowsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Adelaide CrowsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Adelaide CrowsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Adelaide CrowsHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Crows

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Magpies

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Brayden Maynard Collingwood Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Josh Rachele Adelaide Crows Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Sam Berry Adelaide Crows Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Riley Thilthorpe Adelaide Crows Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Ben Keays Adelaide Crows Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Adelaide Crows @ Collingwood Magpies — what the model found

Our model graded 23 betting markets for Adelaide Crows at Collingwood Magpies — 10 on the game itself and 13 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

10
Game markets graded
13
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 23 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 22 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies — recent results

Collingwood Magpies have won 0 of their last 0 games; Adelaide Crows have won 4 of their last 5.

Adelaide Crows — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W63–54RICHHome
W145–73ESSAway
L74–108COLLHome
W87–71SYDAway
W128–49SUNSHome

Adelaide Crows @ Collingwood Magpies — model preview

Expert analysis and top betting picks for Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows. Includes analysis on key players like Sam Berry. Discover AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows stats and odds.

Sam Berry (Adelaide Crows) Over 12.5 Disposals (-294)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Sam Berry. This young gun from Adelaide has been making waves with his ball-winning prowess, especially on the road. In his last five away games, Berry has been a disposal machine, averaging a solid 17.2 touches per contest. Facing Collingwood, a team he's historically outperformed with an average of 14 disposals against them, the stage is set for Berry to shine. What's even more impressive is his recent form. Berry's hit rate away from home has been solid, hitting the over in 5 out of his last 6 games. With his current hot streak and the model predicting him to hit 17.5 disposals, taking the over 12.5 line on Berry seems like a smart play. His ability to find the footy, coupled with his efficiency and consistency, makes him a strong bet to snag those crucial possessions and help you snag a win on the betting front.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Crows vs Magpies, or as Magpies vs Crows. The most recent game between them was Saturday 14 March 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 10 game picks and 13 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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