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Model picks & player props
Adelaide Crows
VS
Collingwood Magpies

Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 2:09PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sat 14 Mar 2026, 8:35AM
10
Game Picks
13
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Adelaide Crows 6.5 (Spread)
For Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies (AFL), model win probability 61.5%, fair odds 1.63, book price -111, model edge +8.8%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 14 Mar 2026, 8:35AM at MCG.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Adelaide Crows
6.5
+ 9 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Adelaide CrowsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Adelaide CrowsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Adelaide CrowsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Adelaide CrowsHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Crows

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Magpies

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Brayden Maynard Collingwood Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Josh Rachele Adelaide Crows Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Sam Berry Adelaide Crows Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Riley Thilthorpe Adelaide Crows Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Ben Keays Adelaide Crows Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Adelaide Crows @ Collingwood Magpies — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top betting picks for Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows. Includes analysis on key players like Sam Berry. Discover AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows stats and odds.</p>

Sam Berry (Adelaide Crows) Over 12.5 Disposals (-294)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Sam Berry. This young gun from Adelaide has been making waves with his ball-winning prowess, especially on the road. In his last five away games, Berry has been a disposal machine, averaging a solid 17.2 touches per contest. Facing Collingwood, a team he's historically outperformed with an average of 14 disposals against them, the stage is set for Berry to shine. What's even more impressive is his recent form. Berry's hit rate away from home has been solid, hitting the over in 5 out of his last 6 games. With his current hot streak and the model predicting him to hit 17.5 disposals, taking the over 12.5 line on Berry seems like a smart play. His ability to find the footy, coupled with his efficiency and consistency, makes him a strong bet to snag those crucial possessions and help you snag a win on the betting front.

Taylor Walker (Adelaide Crows) Over 10.5 Disposals (-179)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to picking a player prop bet, Taylor Walker stands out like a beacon in the night sky. The Adelaide Crows skipper has been on an absolute tear, showcasing his hunger for the contest and silky skills. In his last five away games, Walker has been a disposal machine, averaging a whopping 13 disposals per match, comfortably eclipsing the 10.5 line set by the bookies for this clash against Collingwood. What's more, his recent form against the Magpies has been solid, averaging 12.8 disposals in his last five matchups. Walker's ability to find space, rack up kicks, and influence the game with his leadership make him a prime candidate to snag a bag of possessions at the hallowed MCG. With his current form and historical performance against Collingwood, backing Walker to go over 10.5 disposals is as safe a bet as they come in this Saturday night showdown.

Sam Berry (Adelaide Crows) Over 11.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When looking for a reliable bet on player disposals in the Collingwood vs. Adelaide clash, Sam Berry stands out as a prime candidate to surpass the 11.5 line. The young gun has been a consistent ball-winner, averaging a solid 17.2 disposals in his last five away games. His recent form also shows an impressive contested possessions average of 8.2, highlighting his ability to thrive in tough contests. With a knack for efficient ball use at 74.1% disposal efficiency, Berry is adept at making his possessions count. Facing Collingwood, against whom he averages 14 disposals, Berry is poised to exploit this matchup. Add in his current hit streak and overall hit rate of 8/8, and betting on Berry to go over 11.5 disposals is a smart move for punters looking to snag a win on this AFL showdown.

Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows : Adelaide Crows 4.5 (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's break down why backing the Adelaide Crows at +4.5 against the Collingwood Magpies could be a savvy move. The Crows have been soaring on the road, averaging a whopping 93.2 points per game over their last 5 away clashes. Their offensive firepower, led by an average of 29.2 shots at goal and 13.8 target goals, could spell trouble for the Magpies' defense, who have been leaking an average of 78.8 points at home. On the flip side, Collingwood has been struggling to find consistency, with a narrow average margin of 2.2 in their last 5 games overall. With the Crows boasting a solid average margin of 19.4 on the road, they seem primed to keep this clash tight. Backing the Crows with the points here could be the way to go for punters looking to snag a win.

Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows : Under 173.5 Total Points (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The upcoming clash between the Collingwood Magpies and the Adelaide Crows at the iconic MCG promises to be a fierce battle of tactics and skill. Recent form suggests a defensive showdown, with the Magpies holding strong at home, allowing an average of only 78.8 points against in their last 5 home games. On the flip side, the Crows, known for their attacking prowess, have been slightly subdued on the road, conceding just 73.8 points on average in their last 5 away games. With both teams showing solid defensive structures and the total points line set at 173.5, the under looks enticing. Expect a gritty contest with both teams fighting tooth and nail to control the tempo, potentially resulting in a lower-scoring affair that could favor the under bet.

Taylor Walker (Adelaide Crows) Over 9.5 Disposals (-286)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Taylor Walker is set to be an instrumental force for the Adelaide Crows in their clash with Collingwood. Walker's recent form on the road has been nothing short of impressive, averaging 13 disposals over the last five away games. His ability to find space and contribute to the contest with 9.6 kicks and 3.4 handballs per game showcases his influence on the game. Moreover, facing Collingwood, Walker has historically performed even better with an average of 11 disposals against them in their last five encounters. With a current hit streak of 4 and a solid track record of hitting the over, Walker is poised to exceed the 9.5 disposal line, making him a strong bet to back in the 'Player Disposals Over/Under' market.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 10 game picks and 13 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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