On Friday 2 October 2026, Las Vegas Aces play Indiana Fever in the WNBA. Our model likes 4 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 189.5 Total Points, priced at -250 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
The Las Vegas Aces are on fire, winning their last six games and averaging an impressive 91.6 points per game this season. Meanwhile, the Indiana Fever have been less consistent, winning only five of their last ten and scoring a solid but lower 98.0 points per game over their last 20 matchups. With both teams in different scoring rhythms and our numbers suggesting a combined total around 167.6 points, betting on the total points to be under 189.5 makes sense. The biggest risk is that the Fever could surprise with a high-scoring game, but the Aces' strong defense should help keep the score down. It was priced at -250 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Stephanie Talbot Under 0.5 Three-Pointers Made (+110)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Stephanie Talbot has been struggling with her three-point shooting lately, especially when playing away from home. In her last ten games, she averages just 1.6 rebounds per game when she's on the road, which shows she's not as involved in the game. With the Aces' defense being tough, this could make it even harder for her to score from beyond the arc.
The Las Vegas Aces have been on a hot streak, winning six in a row and scoring a lot of points in their games. Since the odds for Talbot making less than one three-pointer are close to even, it feels like a smart choice to bet on her staying under this mark today. The Aces' strong defense could really limit her chances. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus Under 5.5 Points (+110)
Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus has been a bit quieter lately, especially when playing during the day. She averages just 3.6 points in daylight games, which is really low compared to her night performance. The Las Vegas Aces have been on fire, winning six straight games and scoring a lot, but this might not help Parker-Tyus much since she's not facing a weak defense.
Betting on her to score under 5.5 points seems like a smart choice. The Indiana Fever have also been up and down, and Parker-Tyus hasn't been able to find her rhythm in the afternoon games. The main risk is that she could have a breakout game, but her recent form suggests she might struggle to hit this number. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Caitlin Clark Under 22.5 Points (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Caitlin Clark has been playing really well, but facing the Las Vegas Aces is tough. The Aces have won six games in a row and have a strong defense. They're letting up less than 92 points on average, which means scoring can be hard against them. With the Aces on a winning streak and Clark needing to find ways to score, she might have a tougher night. Clark has been averaging a solid number of points, but the Aces are known for shutting down big scorers. Indiana Fever has only won five of their last ten games, and this matchup could make it tricky for her to hit over 22.5 points. So, while she's talented, the challenge she faces tonight is real. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Las Vegas Aces v Indiana Fever. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.