On Friday 18 September 2026, Portland Fire play Phoenix Mercury in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Portland Fire +2 on the Line, priced at +110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
The Portland Fire have a solid chance to keep things close against the Phoenix Mercury, with our numbers showing a good chance for them to cover the spread. The difference in skill isn't huge, so it could easily come down to a few key plays. The Fire's recent scoring form has been decent, and they should benefit from being at home. The biggest risk here is that the Mercury have been a tough opponent, which makes this matchup tricky. Still, taking Portland +2 seems like a smart move. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Under 170.5 Total Points (+110)
Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing
The bet is on under 170.5 total points, and our numbers think that's a solid choice. Portland Fire has been playing tough, forcing turnovers at a good rate, while Phoenix Mercury has struggled a bit lately, winning only 3 of their last 10 games. The Fire also tend to limit scoring, and both teams have had their ups and downs with points. A big worry is that the teams are closer than they seem, so a tight game could lead to more defense than offense. Overall, under 170.5 looks promising. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Emily Engstler Under 16.5 Points and Assists (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Portland Fire are facing off against Phoenix Mercury at the Moda Center, and it's looking like a tight matchup. Emily Engstler has been a steady player but lately, her scoring and assists have dipped. The Fire force turnovers well, so if they can disrupt the Mercury's rhythm, it could limit Engstler's chances to rack up points and assists. The Mercury's defense has been giving up a lot of three-point attempts and rebounds, which can impact how well Engstler performs. While she has talent, the way the teams are playing suggests she might struggle to hit that 16.5 mark. The biggest risk here is the close nature of the teams' recent performance, so it's not a sure thing. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Alyssa Thomas Under 32.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-112)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
The bet here is for Alyssa Thomas to score under 32.5 points, rebounds, and assists combined at odds of -120. Our numbers think this is a strong favorite, especially considering how both teams match up. Portland Fire have been pretty good at forcing turnovers, which can disrupt the flow of the game. Plus, Phoenix Mercury have struggled with giving up rebounds, which might limit Thomas's chances to rack up those stats. However, keep in mind that she's a key player, and if she gets hot or the game goes her way, it could be close. Both teams are on a bit of a rough patch, with the Fire winning only 2 of their last 6, while the Mercury have won just 3 of their last 10. This adds a layer of uncertainty, but the numbers still favor the under for Thomas. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.90 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Natasha Mack Under 9.5 Points (+151)
Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing
For this bet to work, Natasha Mack needs to score under 9.5 points tonight against the Phoenix Mercury. The Portland Fire have been solid defensively, forcing turnovers and limiting scoring chances. Mack may find it tough to rack up points since the Mercury give up a lot of three-point shots, which can affect how she plays. Mack has also been inconsistent recently, and the Fire have only won 2 of their last 6 games. One concrete risk is that the Mercury allow opponents to grab plenty of rebounds, which could lead to more second-chance points. Still, with a good chance for this bet, it's worth taking a look tonight. It was priced at +151 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $25.10 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Portland Fire v Phoenix Mercury. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.