On Wednesday 23 September 2026, Las Vegas Aces play Los Angeles Sparks in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 178.5 Total Points, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
The Las Vegas Aces are playing really well, winning 4 of their last 6 games and scoring an impressive 91 points on average this season. In contrast, the Los Angeles Sparks have struggled, winning only 3 of their last 10 and averaging 85 points per game. Both teams are facing each other at the Michelob Ultra Arena, and the Aces seem to have the upper hand. Given how the teams are performing, I think betting on under 178.5 total points makes sense. Our numbers suggest a combined score around 168.6, which is lower than the target. The Sparks' recent form shows they might not reach high scores, so that's a concrete risk to consider. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Los Angeles Sparks +21.5 on the Line (-204)
Odds available at BetRivers at time of publishing
The Los Angeles Sparks need to keep the game close against the Las Vegas Aces tonight. While the Aces have been strong lately, scoring an impressive 91 points per game, the Sparks have shown they can compete, scoring 85 points on average. They've won 3 of their last 6 games, and with the Aces not always dominating by huge margins, there's a solid chance the Sparks can stay within 21.5 points. The biggest risk is that the Aces have won 4 of their last 6 games and are tough to beat at home. It was priced at -204 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.90 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
A'ja Wilson Over 9.5 Rebounds (+110)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
For this bet to work, A'ja Wilson needs to grab at least ten rebounds tonight against the Los Angeles Sparks. The Aces have been scoring a lot, averaging 91 points a game, and they generally create plenty of opportunities for rebounds. A'ja has been on fire lately, especially at night, where she averages over 25 points. That scoring can lead to more missed shots and more chances for her to rebound. The Sparks have struggled recently, winning only three of their last ten games, which means they might miss more shots than usual. However, the risk is that the matchup is close, and both teams are fighting hard. Still, A'ja's strong performance at home gives her a good shot to surpass that 9.5 rebounds mark tonight. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Nneka Ogwumike Under 20.5 Points and Assists (-112)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
The Las Vegas Aces have been on a roll, winning 4 of their last 6 games and scoring a whopping 91 points on average. In contrast, the Los Angeles Sparks have struggled a bit, winning just 3 of their last 10 and scoring 85 points per game. This difference in scoring could make it tough for Nneka Ogwumike to hit her usual numbers in this matchup. Ogwumike averages about 19.9 points and assists at night, but with the Aces playing strong defense, she might not reach 20.5 combined points and assists. The Aces' ability to limit scoring chances means there's a real chance Ogwumike falls short of that mark. It's always a bit of a gamble, but our numbers give this bet a good chance. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.90 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Rae Burrell Over 20.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-112)
Odds available at BetRivers at time of publishing
Rae Burrell has been lighting it up at night, averaging 21.1 points and assists combined across her last ten games. She's been a big part of the Las Vegas Aces' success, especially since they've scored a high 91 points a game this season. The Aces have won 4 of their last 6 games and are looking strong. On the other hand, the Los Angeles Sparks have struggled a bit, winning only 3 of their last 10 games. This matchup could be tight, but Burrell's scoring ability and playmaking should help her hit over 20.5 points, rebounds, and assists. Just remember, if she has an off night, this bet might not work out. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.90 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Las Vegas Aces v Los Angeles Sparks. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.