On Monday 21 September 2026, Las Vegas Aces play Seattle Storm in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 176.5 Total Points, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
The Las Vegas Aces and Seattle Storm are both struggling to score lately, making this matchup tricky for high point totals. The Aces have only managed to win 6 of their last 10 games, and they tend to allow a fair number of three-point attempts, but their defense can step up at times. The Storm, on the other hand, have only won 2 of their last 10 and are letting opponents get their shots off as well. With both teams averaging about 4.5 points behind in recent games, this could lead to a lower combined score. Our numbers suggest they might finish around 171.4 points, which is well below the total of 176.5. The risk is that both teams could have hot shooting nights, but given their recent form, betting on the total points to stay under seems like a solid choice. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Seattle Storm +21.5 on the Line (-233)
Odds available at BetRivers at time of publishing
To cover the spread tonight, Seattle Storm needs to keep the game close against the Las Vegas Aces. The Aces have been strong lately, winning 6 of their last 10 games, but they've been letting opponents score a bit more than usual. The Storm, despite their struggles, have a chance since they only lost by an average of 4.9 points in their last 12 games. The main risk is that Seattle has only won 2 of their last 10, so they need to step up. This could be tighter than expected. It was priced at -233 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.30 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Jewell Loyd Under 7.5 Points (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Jewell Loyd has been struggling to find her rhythm lately, and this matchup against the Las Vegas Aces could make it tougher. The Aces have been solid defensively, allowing opponents to shoot a lot of threes but still keeping scores in check. With Loyd's recent form and the Aces' defense, the chances of her going under 7.5 points look pretty favorable. The Seattle Storm have not been playing well, winning only 2 of their last 10 games, and Loyd has not been getting the support she needs. There's always a risk that she could surprise everyone and have a breakout game, but with the way both teams are performing, sticking with under 7.5 points seems like a smart call. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Jackie Young Under 19.5 Points (+111)
Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing
Jackie Young has been a bit off her scoring lately, and this matchup against the Seattle Storm could give her a tough time. The Aces have recently let opponents score more threes, and while they've won 6 of their last 10, they still come out 4.2 points behind games lately. On the other hand, the Storm are struggling too, winning just 2 of their last 10 and being 4.9 points down on average.
Betting under 19.5 points for Young seems like a smart call. Both teams are allowing a lot of attempts from deep, but Young might find it hard to get going. The biggest risk is how close these two teams are in terms of scoring, which could make this game tighter than expected. It was priced at +111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21.10 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Dominique Malonga Over 0.5 Three-Pointers Made (-111)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
You can get decent odds on Dominique Malonga to make over half a three-pointer in the game against the Seattle Storm. The Aces have won 6 of their last 10 games and generally score well, which helps Malonga's chances. Seattle has struggled lately, winning only 2 of their last 10, and they allow a fair number of shots from deep. However, Malonga has not made a three-pointer in recent games, which is the main risk here. Still, our numbers say he has a good chance to hit one tonight. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Las Vegas Aces v Seattle Storm. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.