On Tuesday 22 September 2026, Phoenix Mercury play Dallas Wings in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Phoenix Mercury +6 on the Line, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
The Phoenix Mercury have struggled lately, winning only two of their last six games. They've faced a tough schedule, playing against teams with a solid overall record. On the other hand, the Dallas Wings are on a hot streak, winning six games in a row and scoring a ton of points, averaging over 89 a game. This matchup looks pretty close, which is why I like the Mercury to cover the spread of +6. They'll be playing at home, which gives them a bit of a boost. However, Dallas has been playing really well, so that's a concrete risk to consider. With both teams in different forms, this game could be tighter than expected. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Under 173.5 Total Points (-105)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
The total points for the game tonight need to stay under 173.5 for the bet to win. The Phoenix Mercury have struggled lately, winning only 3 of their last 10 games, and they've faced one of the toughest schedules in the league. Meanwhile, the Dallas Wings are on a hot streak, winning 7 of their last 10, but they've also been scoring quite a bit, averaging over 89 points a game. The most concrete risk here is that the Wings can score quickly, which could push the total higher. However, our numbers suggest a combined score around 167.4, and with the Mercury's recent form, it seems likely they might not contribute as much to the total. If both teams play strong defense, we could see a lower score tonight. It was priced at -105 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.50 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Paige Bueckers Over 5.5 Assists (+110)
Odds available at BetRivers at time of publishing
Paige Bueckers has been on fire lately, helping her team score big. The Dallas Wings are winning a lot, and they score almost 90 points per game. That means there are plenty of chances for Paige to dish out assists. She's been really involved in the game, and with Dallas pushing the pace, she should get more opportunities to set up her teammates. The Phoenix Mercury have faced tough opponents lately, and that could affect how they play. The risk is that if the game turns into a blowout, Paige might not play as many minutes. Still, with the way both teams are playing, I think she can get over 5.5 assists. It's a close call, but the chances are looking good. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Arike Ogunbowale Over 19.5 Points and Assists (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Arike Ogunbowale is on fire right now, scoring and assisting like a superstar. She's been part of a Dallas Wings team that has won six games in a row, averaging almost 90 points per game. Meanwhile, the Phoenix Mercury have had a tough time lately, winning only three of their last ten games against very strong opponents. This matchup is a challenge for them, especially with the Wings' current scoring form. Betting on Ogunbowale to get over 19.5 points and assists makes sense, given how well she's been playing. However, the Mercury could surprise, as they've been known to step up at home. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Kahleah Copper Over 22.5 Points and Rebounds (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Phoenix Mercury are struggling lately, winning just 3 of their last 10 games. They've faced the second toughest schedule in the league, which makes it even harder for them right now. On the other hand, the Dallas Wings are on fire, winning 7 of their last 10 and scoring an impressive 89.1 points a game. Kahleah Copper has a good chance to shine in this matchup, especially with the way Dallas is playing. The Wings have been feeding her the ball, and she's been grabbing plenty of rebounds. However, the Mercury's defense might put up a fight, making this a tricky game. Still, if Copper keeps her rhythm, going over 22.5 points and rebounds seems likely. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Phoenix Mercury v Dallas Wings. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.