Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Alyssa Thomas is Over 15.5 on Points.
On the Points market the model assigns a model win probability of 54%, versus the book's implied 50%, for a model edge of +3.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current WNBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:40PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Points
Over 15.5
+100 (2.00) · $100→$200
+3.7% Edge
Phoenix Mercury
@
Los Angeles Sparks
Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles · Indoor
Wed 12 Aug, 2:00AM
The recordWhen our formula calls wnba spread calls: 366 of 467 right
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Implied Probability
50.0%
Predicted Value
16.4 Points
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Points | 53.7% | — | 50.0% | 2.13 | +3.7% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 0/0 |
| Last 5 games | 0/0 |
| Last 10 games | 0/0 |
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Alyssa Thomas Over 15.5 Points (+100)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing Los Angeles Sparks play Phoenix Mercury in the WNBA on Wednesday 12 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Alyssa Thomas Over 15.5 Points. That is a player points bet. It was priced at +100 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20 if it lands. The game is at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. Our model expects Alyssa Thomas to finish with about 16.4 points. The line for this one is 15.5. Our number sits above that line. This one is priced as an outside chance.
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Alyssa Thomas is tracked by the Bet Better model for WNBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Alyssa Thomas is Over 15.5 on Points. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.7% on this pick. Their next game is Phoenix Mercury vs Los Angeles Sparks on Wednesday 12 August at Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your WNBA betting strategy.
Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.