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The latest Bet Better model pick for Alyssa Thomas is Under 8.5 on Assists.
On Assists, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 61%, implied 55%, edge +5.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current WNBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 1:56AM UTC
WNBA

Alyssa Thomas

WNBA

+5.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Assists Under 8.5 -122 (1.82) · $100→$182
+5.6% Edge
Toronto Tempo @ Phoenix Mercury
PHX Arena, Phoenix · Indoor
Sun 30 Aug, 2:00AM
The recordWhen our formula calls wnba totals unders: 1,718 of 2,295 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
61 in 100
Predicted
7.8 Assists
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 60.5% · the book's price implies 54.9% · gap +5.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Assists60.5%—54.9%1.94+5.6%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/0
Last 5 games0/0
Last 10 games0/0

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AI Analysis

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Phoenix Mercury vs Toronto Tempo: Alyssa Thomas Under 8.5 Assists (-120)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The odds are set at -120 for Alyssa Thomas to record under 8.5 assists, which looks promising. She's been a bit all over the place lately, with her assists ranging from 0 to 4 in her last ten games. With the Phoenix Mercury allowing a lot of rebounds and three-point attempts, the Tempo might not get the chances they need for big assists. Both teams are struggling lately, with Phoenix winning only 2 of their last 10 games and Toronto only 1. Plus, Toronto has fallen behind by an average of nearly 10 points in their last 12 games, which might limit their ability to dish out assists late in the game. The risk is that if the game stays close, Alyssa could see more opportunities, but our numbers still give this a good chance.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)
Overall Hit Rate (27 picks) 55.6% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.
Quick answers:How many points does Alyssa Thomas average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
30 Aug 26 Toronto Tempo @ Phoenix Mercury Assists 8.5 Under -122 ✗ MISS
30 Aug 26 Toronto Tempo @ Phoenix Mercury Points 14.5 Under -103 ✓ HIT
30 Aug 26 Toronto Tempo @ Phoenix Mercury Pts+Ast 23.5 Under -118 ✓ HIT
30 Aug 26 Toronto Tempo @ Phoenix Mercury Pts+Reb — — — Pending
30 Aug 26 Toronto Tempo @ Phoenix Mercury Pts+Reb+Ast — — — Pending
30 Aug 26 Toronto Tempo @ Phoenix Mercury Pts+Reb+Ast — — — Pending

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About This Player

Alyssa Thomas is tracked by the Bet Better model for WNBA player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 55.6% on tracked Alyssa Thomas picks. The latest model pick for Alyssa Thomas is Under 8.5 on Assists. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.6% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Tempo vs Phoenix Mercury on Sunday 30 August at PHX Arena, Phoenix. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your WNBA betting strategy.

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