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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Alyssa Thomas is Over 13.5 on player_points.
On the player_points market the model assigns a model win probability of 58%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +4.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current WNBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:13AM UTC
WNBA

Alyssa Thomas

WNBA

+4.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
player_points Over 13.5 -114 (1.88)
+4.6% Edge
Phoenix Mercury @ Los Angeles Sparks
Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles · Indoor
Wed 22 Jul, 7:00PM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
57.8%
Implied Probability
53.2%
Model Edge
+4.6%
Predicted Value
15.1 player_points

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
player_points57.8%53.2%2.00+4.6%

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AI Analysis

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Alyssa Thomas Over 13.5 Points (-114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Sparks host the Mercury at Crypto.com Arena, all eyes should be on Alyssa Thomas. With her relentless drive and unmatched versatility, she’s poised to light up the scoreboard, especially against a Phoenix defense that has struggled to contain dynamic forwards this season. Our model projects her to score around 15.1 points, and the way she’s been attacking the rim lately shows that she’s not just looking to pass; she’s hunting for her shot. Moreover, the pace of this matchup should favor Thomas. The Sparks typically play an up-tempo game, which bodes well for a player of her caliber who thrives in transition. With her ability to create her own looks and capitalize on defensive lapses, the over on 13.5 points feels like a smart play. Expect Thomas to not only meet but exceed this mark as she leads her team against a Mercury squad that’s ripe for the taking.

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Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Alyssa Thomas is tracked by the Bet Better model for WNBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Alyssa Thomas is Over 13.5 on player_points. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.6% on this pick. Their next game is Phoenix Mercury vs Los Angeles Sparks on Wednesday 22 July at Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your WNBA betting strategy.

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