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Model picks & player props
Golden State Valkyries
VS
Phoenix Mercury

Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 16, 7:35AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

WNBA
PHX Arena, Phoenix
Indoor
Thu 30 Jul 2026, 2:11AM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
95.4%
Historical Hit Rate
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Phoenix Mercury 7.5 (Alt Spread)
The model graded 70 markets for Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury (WNBA) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $215 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 95.4% across 65 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 63.0%, fair odds 2.30, book price +115, model edge +16.5%. Tip-off Thu 30 Jul 2026, 2:11AM at PHX Arena.
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Phoenix Mercury 7.5 · $100 returned $168

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best WNBA market — 533 of 691 right (wnba spread calls)
This bet type · last timeAug 15
Connecticut Sun 8
New York Liberty @ Connecticut Sun
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $187
Our call on this game: 2 picks on tonight's board · logged before tip-offSee tonight's picks

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Alt Spread
Phoenix Mercury
+7.5
+115
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Phoenix Mercuryalternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix Mercuryalternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix Mercuryalternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix Mercuryalternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix Mercuryalternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Overalternate_totalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix Mercuryalternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix Mercuryalternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix Mercuryalternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix Mercuryalternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix Mercuryalternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix Mercuryalternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Golden State Valkyriesalternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Overalternate_totalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix Mercuryalternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix Mercuryalternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Overalternate_totalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix Mercuryalternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Overalternate_totalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Golden State Valkyries

  • Janelle Salaun FOut
  • Miela Sowah GOut
  • Kiah Stokes COut
  • Iliana Rupert COut

Phoenix Mercury

  • Kelsey Plum GOut
  • Jovana Nogic GOut
Availability updated Aug 14, 7:35PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 6 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability6 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Kahleah Copper player_threes
Monique Akoa Makani player_points_rebounds_assists_alternate
Alyssa Thomas player_assists_alternate
Kahleah Copper player_points
Kahleah Copper player_points_rebounds

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Golden State Valkyries @ Phoenix Mercury — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Golden State Valkyries at Phoenix Mercury — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury — recent results

Phoenix Mercury have won 2 of their last 5 games; Golden State Valkyries have won 5 of their last 5.

Phoenix Mercury — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W94–87LAAway
L75–95WSHAway
L72–75CONAway
L82–96ATLAway
W106–101CHIAway
Golden State Valkyries — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W91–71CHIHome
W84–78LAAway
W94–76DALAway
W92–81TORHome
W96–79TORHome

Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Phoenix Mercury won 1, Golden State Valkyries won 2.

DatePhoenix MercuryGolden State ValkyriesWinner
Jul 309189Phoenix Mercury
Jun 108187Golden State Valkyries
May 117995Golden State Valkyries

Who’s out or in doubt

6 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Phoenix Mercury
PlayerStatus
Kelsey Plum GOUT
Jovana Nogic GOUT
Golden State Valkyries
PlayerStatus
Janelle Salaun FOUT
Miela Sowah GOUT
Kiah Stokes COUT
Iliana Rupert COUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Golden State Valkyries @ Phoenix Mercury — model preview

Model-built preview and betting picks for Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury: our probability on every market, the value read, and where the edge sits.

The model's read: Over alternate_totals at 1.28 — we make it a 79% chance (+0.0% edge on the price).

Player angles the model likes:

  • Kahleah Copper Under 17.5 points at 1.91 — 85% by our numbers
  • DeWanna Bonner Over 14.5 points rebounds assists alternate at 1.56 — 85% by our numbers
  • Janelle Salaun Under 2.5 threes at 1.61 — 83% by our numbers

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 5 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
65
Total Picks
95.4%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
30 Jul 26 Alt Total Points Over 159.5 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Alt Total Points Over 158.5 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Spread Phoenix Mercury +8.5 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Alt Total Points Over 157.5 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Spread Phoenix Mercury +9.5 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Alt Total Points Over 156.5 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Alt Spread Phoenix Mercury +10.5 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Alt Total Points Over 155.5 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Alt Spread Phoenix Mercury +12.5 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Alt Total Points Over 154.5 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Alt Spread Phoenix Mercury +11.5 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Alt Spread Phoenix Mercury +13.5 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Alt Total Points Over 153.5 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Alt Spread Phoenix Mercury +14.5 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Alt Spread Phoenix Mercury +15.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury in the WNBA. You may also see this matchup written as Valkyries vs Mercury, or as Mercury vs Valkyries. The most recent game between them was Thursday 30 July 2026 at PHX Arena. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 95.4% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your WNBA betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 3 meetings
Golden State Valkyries 2–1 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
30 Jul 2026Golden State Valkyries @ Phoenix Mercury91–89Phoenix Mercury
10 Jun 2026Phoenix Mercury @ Golden State Valkyries87–81Golden State Valkyries
11 May 2026Phoenix Mercury @ Golden State Valkyries95–79Golden State Valkyries
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