Kayshon Boutte (NE) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+215)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Kayshon Boutte to score a touchdown at any time during the Patriots vs Falcons game seems like a risky proposition based on his recent performance data. His overall hit rate over the last three games is 0/3, indicating that he has not scored a touchdown in his last three games. Similarly, his home hit rate over the same period is also 0/3. Over the last 5, 10, and 20 games, his overall and home hit rates have also been relatively low. His overall current hit streak stands at zero, suggesting that he has not scored in his most recent game. Lastly, his overall hit rate is 3/26 which is quite low, while his home hit rate is slightly better at 2/13. Given these stats, a bet on Boutte to score a touchdown at any time could be considered a long shot.

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons : NA -5.5 Point Spread (-110)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The New England Patriots are statistically favored to cover a -5.5 spread based on the provided L5 performance data. The Patriots have outperformed their opponents in most key statistical areas. They have an average point differential of +15 in their last five overall games and +8.2 in their home games, compared to the negative point differentials for the away team in both categories. In addition, the Patriots have a positive turnover differential in their last five overall games (+1), whereas the away team has a negative turnover differential (-0.6). This implies better ball control, which often translates into scoring opportunities. The Patriots also have a better record in the last 5 overall games (5-0) and at home (3-2), indicating a strong recent performance. Meanwhile, the away team's record is subpar (2-3 overall and in away games). Lastly, the model's edge for the Patriots is 0.152, further suggesting a statistical advantage

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons : Over 44.5 Total Points (-120)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Over 44.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is supported by several key statistics. First, the home team has consistently been scoring high in their last five games, with an average of 30.6 points, well above the bet's threshold. Even when playing at home, they average 24.8 points. The away team, despite their lower scoring average of 15.6 points, has also been conceding an average of 25 points in their last five games. This suggests a potential for a higher total score in the game. Moreover, the home team's EPA (Expected Points Added) statistics demonstrate a strong offense, with overall positive values for EPA for and negative values for EPA against. This indicates they generally outperform their expectations in point generation and suppression of opponents' scores. Their high explosive rate also suggests a capability to make big plays that could push the total score higher. Though the model's edge is not very high (5.6

See All Our Picks

You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.

Get Bet Better Pro