New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction & Picks (Hunter Henry Impact) : Odds & Edges

The rationale for betting over 44.5 in the 'totals' market for this NFL game is backed by solid performance statistics from both teams. The home team has been particularly impressive in their last 5 games, scoring an average of 30.6 points per game, well above the 44.5 point mark for this bet. Their offensive and defensive EPA (Expected Points Added) differentials are also significantly positive, indicating strong performance on both sides of the ball. The away team, despite having a negative point differential, still manages to score an average of 15.6 points per game. Adding this to the home team's average score, we get a total of 46.2 points, which is above the 44.5 point mark for this bet. While the away team's performance has been less impressive than the home team's, their scoring ability still contributes to the likelihood of the total score going over 44.5. Furthermore, the model edge of 0.

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons : Over 44.5 Total Points (-120)

Betting on Over 44.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is supported by several key statistics. First, the home team has consistently been scoring high in their last five games, with an average of 30.6 points, well above the bet's threshold. Even when playing at home, they average 24.8 points. The away team, despite their lower scoring average of 15.6 points, has also been conceding an average of 25 points in their last five games. This suggests a potential for a higher total score in the game. Moreover, the home team's EPA (Expected Points Added) statistics demonstrate a strong offense, with overall positive values for EPA for and negative values for EPA against. This indicates they generally outperform their expectations in point generation and suppression of opponents' scores. Their high explosive rate also suggests a capability to make big plays that could push the total score higher. Though the model's edge is not very high (5.6

Hunter Henry (NE) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120)

The betting rationale for Hunter Henry to score a touchdown anytime in the New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons game is not particularly strong based on his recent performance and hit rates. Over his last three games, both overall and at home, Henry has not scored a touchdown. This trend extends to his last five games as well, with a hit rate of 0/5. Over his last 10 games, he only scored in one, yielding a hit rate of 1/10. Even going back 20 games, his hit rate remains low at 2/20 overall and 5/20 at home. His overall touchdown hit rate is 9/53, and at home, it is slightly better at 5/26. With a current hit streak of zero, both overall and at home, the statistical likelihood of Henry scoring a touchdown in the upcoming game is not promising. The model edge of 0.047756278466937 further indicates a low probability.

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons : Under 44.5 Total Points (+100)

The under 44.5 bet in the 'totals' market for this game appears to be a solid choice based on the teams' recent performances. The home team has a strong defensive record, allowing an average of 15.6 points in their last five games, while the visiting team has struggled offensively, averaging just 15.6 points over the same period. The away team's offensive struggles are also reflected in their negative overall Expected Points Added (EPA) of -5.89, indicating they often fail to capitalize on their opportunities. In the home team's last five home games, they've allowed only 16.6 points on average. Meanwhile, the away team has only managed to score an average of 14.2 points in their last five away games. Given these stats, it seems unlikely the total combined score will exceed 44.5 points.