On Monday 14 September 2026, Monza play Sassuolo in Serie A. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Over 1.5 Total Goals, priced at -345 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Monza vs Sassuolo: Over 1.5 Total Goals (-345)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Monza prepares to face Sassuolo, the stage is set for a potential goal fest, making a bet on "Over 1.5" total goals a compelling option. Despite Monza's recent struggles at home, their defensive frailties have been alarming, conceding an average of 2.8 goals in their last five home matches. Sassuolo, meanwhile, has shown glimpses of attacking promise, averaging 1.6 goals in their last five outings. The history between these sides further supports the wager; Monza boasts a 3-1 record against Sassuolo in their last five meetings, often producing multiple goals. With both teams averaging just shy of 14 shots per game, it’s clear they’re capable of finding the net. Given the current form and the trend of high-scoring encounters, expecting at least two goals seems not just reasonable but highly probable.

Monza vs Sassuolo: Sassuolo +0.25 Goal Handicap (-164)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Monza prepares to host Sassuolo, the stats tell a compelling story that leans towards the visitors. Monza has struggled at home, racking up just one draw and four losses in their last five outings, averaging a mere 0.8 goals while conceding 2.8. Their xG is concerningly low, indicating an inability to create meaningful chances. Meanwhile, Sassuolo comes in with an away record that's far from stellar but shows resilience, scoring 1.6 goals on average over their last five matches. Given Monza’s dire form and Sassuolo’s historical edge—winning three of their last five meetings—Sassuolo at a -0.25 handicap feels like the smart play. They may not be world-beaters, but they have the momentum and scoring capabilities to turn this matchup in their favor. With Monza’s defensive woes, expect Sassuolo to capitalize and secure at least a draw, if not a win.

That is how our model reads Monza v Sassuolo. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Unlock the rest of this one

You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.

Unlock the full article