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The latest Bet Better model pick for Manny Machado is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 70%, versus the book's implied 62%, for a model edge of +8.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 10:04AM UTC
MLB

Manny Machado

SDP

+8.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -164 (1.61)
+8.1% Edge
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves
Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia · Outdoor
Mon 20 Jul, 11:15PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
70.2%
Implied Probability
62.1%
Model Edge
+8.1%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases70.2%—62.1%1.42+8.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Manny Machado (SDP) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-164)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Braves host the Padres, all eyes will be on Manny Machado, but a cautious approach may pay off with his total bases set at 1.5. Despite his potent bat, Machado has faced a challenging stretch against elite pitching lately, and the Braves' standout starter has been in fine form. Going back to his last few games, Machado has struggled to find consistent contact, averaging below his usual standards against right-handed pitchers. Looking at the Braves’ pitching staff, they’ve been particularly adept at limiting extra-base hits, especially at home. With their strong defensive alignment and Machado’s recent dip in production, it seems plausible that he’ll fall short of the 1.5 total bases threshold tonight. The combination of recent trends and matchup dynamics points toward the under being a savvy bet in this intriguing clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2070%
O 0.570%
O 1.540%
O 2.510%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 0.8 · hi 3 · lo 0
10030

Manny Machado MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
O 1.560%
O 2.540%
O 3.520%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 1.5 · hi 5 · lo 0
1005

Manny Machado MLB total bases: cleared over 1.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%

Manny Machado MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2070%
O 0.570%
O 1.570%
O 2.550%
O 3.530%
O 4.520%

Manny Machado MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
O 0.550%
O 1.520%
O 2.520%

Manny Machado MLB rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
L2050%
O 0.560%
O 1.520%

Manny Machado MLB runs scored: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
L2050%
O 0.550%
O 1.520%

Manny Machado MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
20 Jul 26 San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -164 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -263 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -417 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs — — — Pending
12 Jul 26 Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres Batter - Singles — — — Pending
09 Jul 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Batter - Walks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Manny Machado (SDP) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Manny Machado is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.1% on this pick. Their next game is San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves on Monday 20 July at Truist Park, Atlanta. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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