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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Michael Wacha is Under 17.5 on Pitcher - Outs.
On Pitcher - Outs, our numbers say this bet wins about 45 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 45%, the price says 45%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 2.50 Hlanded 10 of the last 10
Over 3.50 Hlanded 9 of the last 10
Over 0.50 BBlanded 9 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Sep 21, 4:08AM UTC
MLB

Michael Wacha

KCR

Value call

Michael Wacha has one live pick today: Pitcher - Outs Under 17.5 that pays $221 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Outs Under 17.5 +121 (2.21) · $100→$221
Value call
Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Sun 20 Sep, 5:35PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher strikeouts overs: 164 of 342 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
Confirmed probable starter
Probable SP vs KC @ PIT
updated Sep 20, 5:35PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
45 in 100
Predicted
17.8 Pitcher - Outs
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 45.3% · before adjusting for past results 48.7% · the book's price implies 45.2% · gap +0.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Outs48.7%45.3%45.2%2.21+3.4%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Michael Wacha (KCR) Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (+121)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Pittsburgh Pirates play Kansas City Royals in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Michael Wacha (KCR) Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (+121). That is a Outs Recorded bet. It was priced at +121 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Michael Wacha is averaging 4.8 hits, 0.2 home runs and 0.0 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

4.8
Hits
0.2
HR
0.0
RBI
2.4
Runs
2.0
Walks
4.0
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: SO

Michael Wacha has gone over 1.5 SO in 100% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o1.5100%
o2.5100%
o3.533%
o4.50%
o5.50%
o6.50%
o7.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Michael Wacha is averaging 4.8 hits per game over his last 5 and 4.6 in home games, including his recent form against TOR.

4.8
Hits · Overall
4.6
Hits · Home
6.3
Hits · vs TOR
0.2
HR · Overall
0.2
HR · Home
0.8
HR · vs TOR
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Aug 26 Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians Pitcher - Hits Allowed 5.5 Under -133 ✓ HIT
28 Aug 26 Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians Pitcher - Earned Runs 2.5 Under -137 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals Pitcher - Hits Allowed 5.5 Under -109 ✓ HIT
16 Sep 26 Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros Pitcher - Outs Pending
03 Sep 26 Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals Pitcher - Walks Pending
22 Aug 26 Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals Pitcher - Strikeouts Pending

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About This Player

Michael Wacha (KCR) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Michael Wacha is Under 17.5 on Pitcher - Outs. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.4% on this pick. Their next game is Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday 20 September at PNC Park, Pittsburgh. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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