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Model picks & player props
Minnesota Twins
VS
Tampa Bay Rays

Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:18AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg
Indoor
Wed 28 May 2025, 5:10PM
20
Game Picks
5
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 3.5 (Team Total Runs)
For Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays (MLB), model win probability 59.4%, fair odds 1.68, book price +110, model edge +11.8%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Wed 28 May 2025, 5:10PM at Tropicana Field.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Runs
Under
4.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Minnesota Twins

  • David Festa SPOut
  • Mick Abel SPOut
  • Marco Raya RPOut
  • Connor Prielipp SPOut
  • Garrett Acton RPOut
  • Anthony Banda RPOut
  • Cole Sands RPOut
  • Pablo Lopez SPOut

Probable pitcher

Joe Ryan SP

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Jesse Scholtens RPOut
  • Gavin Lux LFOut
  • Jake Fraley RFOut
  • Steven Wilson RPOut
  • Steven Matz SPOut
  • Edwin Uceta RPOut
  • Manuel Rodriguez RPOut
  • Jonathan Heasley RPOut
  • Ryan Pepiot SPOut

Probable pitcher

Nick Martinez SP
Availability updated Jul 20, 11:07PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Pablo Lopez MIN Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Josh Lowe TBR Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Carlos Correa MIN Batter -Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Taylor Walls TBR Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Pablo Lopez MIN Pitcher - Hits Allowed 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineTampa Bay RaysNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA4.0Home L52-3vs Minnesota Twins L54-1Win rec6-6

Tampa Bay Rays moneyline form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Run LineTampa Bay Rays run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA4.0Home L52-3vs Minnesota Twins L54-1ATS7-5

Tampa Bay Rays spread form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota TwinsNo line posted

Tampa Bay Rays total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsTampa Bay Rays team totalNo line posted
3.7implied team total
L5 RF3.4L5 RA4.0Home L52-3vs Minnesota Twins L54-1

Tampa Bay Rays team total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays — model preview

<p>Winning baseball bets for Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Carlos Correa. Explore MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins stats and odds.</p>

Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins : Under 4.5 alternate_team_totals (-169)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on 'Tampa Bay Rays Under 4.5' for the Team Total Runs is supported by the recent performance data of both teams. The Rays have been struggling offensively, with a dismal 0-5 record in their last five games, both overall and at home. Their average run score in these games is only 2.2, significantly below the bet line of 4.5. Additionally, their average bat hits have been low, with 4.4 overall and 5 at home. On the other hand, the Twins have been effective in limiting runs, with an average of 4.2 runs allowed overall and 3.8 away. Their pitching has been tight, allowing only 2.4 bases on balls overall and 2 away. Therefore, the statistical trends suggest that the Rays are unlikely to score more than 4.5 runs in the game.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins : Under 2.5 alternate_team_totals (+185)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Tampa Bay Rays have struggled offensively in recent games, both overall and at home, with an average of only 2.2 runs scored in their last five games. This is below the betting line of 2.5 runs. Their batting average is also relatively low, with an average of 4.4 hits overall and 5 hits at home in the last five games. In contrast, the Minnesota Twins have been effective at limiting runs, allowing an average of 3.8 runs in their last five away games. They have also kept their pitching walks to a minimum, with an average of 2 per away game. These statistics suggest that the Rays may struggle to score more than 2.5 runs in the upcoming game, making the 'Under 2.5' bet a sensible choice.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins : Under 4.5 alternate_team_totals (-175)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on 'Tampa Bay Rays Under 4.5' for the Team Total Runs is driven by the Rays' recent underperformance and the Twins' solid defensive record. The Rays have lost their last five games, both overall and at home, with an average of only 2.2 runs scored in these games. Their batting average is quite low, with only 4.4 hits over the last five games. On the other side, the Twins have been effective in limiting their opponents' runs, with an average of only 3.8 runs allowed in their last five away games. Their pitchers have also maintained a low average of bases on balls, indicating a strong defensive performance. These factors suggest that the Rays are unlikely to score more than 4.5 runs in the upcoming game.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins : Under 5.5 alternate_team_totals (-303)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on 'Tampa Bay Rays Under 5.5' is a good choice considering the recent performance data of both teams. The Rays have been struggling offensively, with an average of only 2.2 runs scored in their last five overall and home games. Their batting average also indicates a lack of productivity, with only 4.4 hits in their last five games. On the other hand, the Twins have been effective in limiting their opponents' scoring, allowing an average of 4.2 runs in their last five games and only 3.8 runs in their away games. Their pitching stats further support this, with an average of only 2.4 walks allowed per game. This combination of the Rays' offensive struggles and the Twins' strong defensive performance suggests the likelihood of the Rays scoring under 5.5 runs.

Carlos Correa (MIN) Under 1.5 Hits (-270)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Carlos Correa's under 1.5 hits bet seems a strong choice given his recent performance data. His last five (L5) overall hits average is 0.8, and his L5 away hits average is 1, both below the line of 1.5. Even when considering his performance against this specific opponent, the Tampa Bay Rays, his L5 hits average is 0.8, still under the line. Furthermore, his plate appearances (PA) averages, both overall and away, are 3.2 and 4 respectively, suggesting he doesn't get many opportunities to exceed the 1.5 hits line. Despite a current hit streak, the data suggests he's more likely to have a hit count under 1.5 in the upcoming game.

Pablo Lopez (MIN) Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (-476)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Pablo Lopez for Over 3.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market is backed by his recent performance data. In his last five games, regardless of location, Lopez has allowed an average of 6 hits per game, which is significantly higher than the line of 3.5. This trend continues in his away games, where his hits allowed average increases to 6.4. Furthermore, when specifically facing the Tampa Bay Rays, his hits allowed average escalates to 7. Despite an average innings pitched of 5.1 and 5.3 for overall and away games respectively, his hits allowed remain high. These statistics indicate that Lopez is likely to allow more than 3.5 hits in the upcoming game against the Rays, making this bet a statistically sound choice.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Wednesday 28 May 2025 at Tropicana Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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