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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Boston Red Sox

New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 10:09PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Fenway Park, Boston
Outdoor
Wed 21 May 2025, 10:45PM
16
Game markets graded
6
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 4.5 Team Total +200

The model graded 22 markets for New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $300 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 21 May 2025, 10:45PM at Fenway Park.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win39.8%
The price says33.3%
Best price+200
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Team Total Over 4.5 Long-shot40% chance +200
Team Total Lean54% chance
Team Total Long-shot11% chance
Team Total High69% chance
Team Total High92% chance
Team Total Long-shot26% chance
Team Total High96% chance
Team Total High84% chance
Team Total High98% chance
Batter - Stolen Bases × 2 props Highup to 95%
Batter - Hits × 2 props Highup to 75%
Batter - Hits × 2 props Highup to 74%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Team Total
Over
5.5
+ 15 more markets
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All 16 game markets and 6 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,376+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Zac Thornton SP

Boston Red Sox

  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut

Probable pitcher

Ranger Suarez SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 7:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
David Hamilton BOS Batter - Stolen Bases
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Hits
Trevor Story BOS Batter - Hits
Jarren Duran BOS Batter - Hits
Jarren Duran BOS Batter - Hits

+ 6 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBoston Red SoxNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs New York Mets L54-1Free board8-6

Boston Red Sox moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.0 runs/gm.

Run LineBoston Red Sox run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs New York Mets L54-1

Boston Red Sox spread form: last five 3-2, 2.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Boston Red Sox vs New York MetsNo line posted

Boston Red Sox total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBoston Red Sox team totalNo line posted
1.5runs we expect
L5 RF2.0L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs New York Mets L54-1

Boston Red Sox team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.0 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ Boston Red Sox — what the model found

Our model graded 22 betting markets for New York Mets at Boston Red Sox — 16 on the game itself and 6 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

16
Game markets graded
6
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 22 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 21 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox — recent results

Boston Red Sox have won 2 of their last 5 games; New York Mets have won 2 of their last 5.

Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–9NYYAway
W6–0NYYAway
L0–1NYYAway
L0–4MIAAway
W7–3MIAAway
New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–2HOUHome
L1–3HOUHome
L2–8MILHome
L1–8MILHome
W3–2MILHome

New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Boston Red Sox won 3, New York Mets won 0.

DateBoston Red SoxNew York MetsWinner
Jul 1232Boston Red Sox
Jul 1140Boston Red Sox
Jul 1062Boston Red Sox

Who’s out or in doubt

17 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Tanner Houck SPOUT
Curtis Mead 3BOUT
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOUT
Garrett Crochet SPOUT
Masataka Yoshida DHOUT
Justin Slaten RPOUT
Triston Casas 1BOUT
Zack Kelly RPOUT
New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Devin Williams RPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mets vs Sox, or as Sox vs Mets. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 21 May 2025 at Fenway Park. The model has generated 16 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 14 meetings on record
Boston Red Sox 9–5 across the last 14 meetings · these games average 7.1 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
12 Jul 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets2–3Boston Red Sox
11 Jul 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets0–4Boston Red Sox
10 Jul 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets2–6Boston Red Sox
21 May 2025New York Mets @ Boston Red Sox1–5New York Mets
20 May 2025New York Mets @ Boston Red Sox2–0Boston Red Sox
19 May 2025New York Mets @ Boston Red Sox3–1Boston Red Sox
13 Mar 2025Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets2–3Boston Red Sox
2 Mar 2025New York Mets @ Boston Red Sox6–4Boston Red Sox
4 Sep 2024Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets8–3New York Mets
3 Sep 2024Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets7–2New York Mets

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 14 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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