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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Boston Red Sox

New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Fenway Park, Boston
Outdoor
Wed 21 May 2025, 10:45PM
16
Game Picks
6
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 4.5 (Team Total Runs)
For New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox (MLB), model win probability 39.8%, fair odds 2.51, book price +200, model edge +6.4%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Wed 21 May 2025, 10:45PM at Fenway Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Runs
Over
5.5
+ 15 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Clay Holmes SPOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Dedniel Nunez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Freddy Peralta SP

Boston Red Sox

  • Ranger Suarez SPOut
  • Trevor Story SSOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Marcelo Mayer 2BOut
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Connelly Early SPOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Roman Anthony LFOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Payton Tolle SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 1:58AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
David Hamilton BOS Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter -Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Trevor Story BOS Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jarren Duran BOS Batter -Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jarren Duran BOS Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBoston Red SoxNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF7.0L5 RA1.6Home L54-1vs New York Mets L54-1

Boston Red Sox moneyline form: last five 5-0, 7.0 runs/gm.

Run LineBoston Red Sox run lineNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF7.0L5 RA1.6Home L54-1vs New York Mets L54-1

Boston Red Sox spread form: last five 5-0, 7.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Boston Red Sox vs New York MetsNo line posted

Boston Red Sox total runs form: last five 5-0, 7.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBoston Red Sox team totalNo line posted
4.7implied team total
L5 RF7.0L5 RA1.6Home L54-1vs New York Mets L54-1

Boston Red Sox team total runs form: last five 5-0, 7.0 runs/gm.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Wednesday 21 May 2025 at Fenway Park. The model has generated 16 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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