On Monday 7 September 2026, Liverpool play Fulham in the EPL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Liverpool vs Fulham: Under 7.5 Total Goals, priced at -10000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Liverpool vs Fulham: Under 7.5 Total Goals (-10000)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to host Fulham, it’s hard to overlook the recent trends that point towards a low-scoring affair. Liverpool's last five matches have seen them average just 1.8 goals at home, while Fulham’s away form has been dismal, managing a meager 0.2 goals per game. Both teams are struggling to convert their chances, evident in their low expected goals (xG) metrics, which sit at an alarming zero—an indication of missed opportunities. Moreover, Liverpool's home defense has tightened up recently, allowing only 1 goal against during their last five matches at Anfield. With Fulham, historically, finding it tough to breach Liverpool's backline (scoring only twice in the last five encounters), betting on under 7.5 total goals seems not just reasonable, but almost inevitable in this matchup. Expect a tactical battle where both sides may prioritize defense over offense.
Liverpool vs Fulham: Fulham +4.5 Goal Handicap (-3333)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
As Liverpool hosts Fulham this Saturday, recent form suggests a compelling case for taking Fulham with a 4.5-goal handicap. Liverpool’s home record has faltered, posting just one win in their last five, and their scoring average of 1.8 goals has been matched by an average of 1.8 conceded. Meanwhile, Fulham's away woes are evident, but their defense has tightened up, allowing just 1.4 goals per match on the road. Despite their struggles, Fulham’s xG numbers hint at potential room for improvement. Liverpool, on the other hand, appears vulnerable, particularly when you consider they’ve only managed to keep one clean sheet at home in recent outings. With both teams’ attacking output fluctuating, the value lies in Fulham’s ability to keep the scoreline respectable. If Liverpool falters again, taking them on the handicap could offer a favorable return.
Liverpool vs Fulham: Under 6.5 Total Goals (-3333)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to face Fulham, the case for betting on under 6.5 total goals becomes quite clear when you delve into recent trends. Liverpool’s home games have averaged just 1.8 goals over their last five matches, with their defense showing more resilience than might be expected. Contrarily, Fulham's away form has been dismal, scoring a mere 0.2 goals per game in their last five outings, struggling to find the back of the net. Both teams are not converting chances into goals, as highlighted by their expected goals stats, which tell a similar story of missed opportunities. Add to that the tight defensive setups both managers are likely to employ, and it's reasonable to foresee a low-scoring affair. With Liverpool's home defense tightening and Fulham's offensive woes, it feels secure to lean toward an under bet in this matchup.
That is how our model reads Liverpool v Fulham. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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