On Saturday 5 September 2026, Liverpool play Fulham in the EPL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Liverpool vs Fulham: Under 7.5 Total Goals, priced at -10000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Liverpool vs Fulham: Under 7.5 Total Goals (-10000)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to host Fulham, all signs point to a low-scoring affair. Despite their attacking pedigree, Liverpool has struggled recently, averaging just 1.8 goals per game in their last five home outings. Fulham, on the other hand, has been even less prolific, netting a mere 0.2 goals in their last five away matches. The xG stats reflect this lack of firepower, with both teams showing minimal expected goals, especially in recent weeks. Fulham’s away form has been dismal, notching only two shots on target per game. Given Liverpool's recent defensive solidity and Fulham's inability to threaten, betting on under 7.5 total goals seems a shrewd move. With both teams averaging just a goal per game lately, it’s hard to envision a scenario where the net bulges more than seven times in this match.
Liverpool vs Fulham: Fulham +5.5 Goal Handicap (-10000)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
As Liverpool takes on Fulham this Saturday, the odds might suggest a straightforward home victory, but recent form tells a different story. The Reds have struggled at Anfield lately, managing just one win in their last five home matches. Meanwhile, Fulham’s away woes are evident, but they have been defensively resilient, only conceding an average of 1.4 goals per away game. Considering Liverpool's xG woes, averaging zero in their last five, and Fulham's gritty approach, it’s clear the Cottagers can keep this match closer than expected. With Liverpool averaging just 1.8 goals scored at home, the handicap of 5.5 seems overly generous. Fulham's capacity to frustrate opponents could easily see them outperform this line, making that bet on Fulham a savvy play in what could be a tighter contest than the odds suggest.
Liverpool vs Fulham: Fulham +4.5 Goal Handicap (-3333)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
As Liverpool welcomes Fulham, the narrative swings in favor of the visitors on the handicap. Liverpool’s home form has been shaky, managing just one win in their last five, while Fulham’s away troubles have been well-documented, reflecting a struggling attack with only 0.2 goals scored per away match recently. However, the Reds only average 1.8 goals at home and have seen their defense concede the same amount. Interestingly, Fulham’s last five encounters with Liverpool have yielded a respectable 2-2-1 record, suggesting they can hold their own against the giants. With Liverpool’s recent inconsistency, the 4.5 handicap might just be the cushion Fulham needs to keep the game competitive. If they can stifle Liverpool’s attack as they have in previous meetings, this bet could pay off handsomely, making it a compelling play in this matchup.
That is how our model reads Liverpool v Fulham. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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