On Thursday 10 September 2026, Liverpool play Fulham in the EPL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Fulham +1.75 Goal Handicap, priced at -200 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
As Liverpool hosts Fulham, it’s hard to ignore the current trends that favor an upset. Liverpool's home form has been shaky, with just one win in their last five, and they’ve allowed an average of 1.8 goals against in that stretch. Fulham, while struggling, has shown resilience with a 1.4 average score in their last five matches—though it’s worth noting they’ve been far more defensively robust away from home. With Liverpool averaging 1.8 goals at Anfield but conceding just as much, the stage is set for Fulham to pull off a surprise. The expectation of Fulham performing well enough to cover the 1.75 handicap looks promising, particularly given their ability to frustrate opponents. Plus, Liverpool's recent defensive lapses could very well swing the match in Fulham's favor, making this bet a compelling choice.
Liverpool vs Fulham: Fulham +1.5 Goal Handicap (-149)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
As Liverpool welcomes Fulham, the stats paint a compelling picture for backing Fulham with a 1.5 handicap. Liverpool’s recent home form has been shaky, with just one win in their last five at Anfield, averaging 1.8 goals scored and conceded. They’ve looked vulnerable defensively, allowing 1.8 xG in recent matches. Conversely, Fulham has shown resilience, even if their away record isn't stellar. They’ve been battling, with their last five games yielding an average of 1.4 goals scored compared to 1.6 conceded. Their away form is concerning, but it’s worth noting that Liverpool's shaky defense could gift Fulham opportunities. Plus, with Fulham's motivation to upset a high-profile opponent, they could easily keep the scoreline respectable. Given Liverpool's inconsistencies and Fulham's potential to surprise, this handicap bet looks enticing. It’s a calculated risk that could pay off handsomely.
Liverpool vs Fulham: Fulham +1.25 Goal Handicap (-120)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to host Fulham, it’s hard to overlook the trends shaping this matchup. Liverpool's home form has been shaky, with just one win in their last five, while Fulham has shown resilience, even if their away results haven't been stellar. The Cottagers recently battled their way to a hard-fought draw against a stronger side, and with a scoring average of only 1.4 goals per game, they’ve been competitive enough to keep things tight. Liverpool's recent xG numbers suggest they’ve been underwhelming, and their inability to convert chances has left them vulnerable. With Fulham’s defense tightening up and Liverpool struggling to find the net consistently, betting on Fulham to cover the 1.25 handicap looks enticing. Fulham may just surprise us by keeping it close, perhaps even snatching a point.
That is how our model reads Liverpool v Fulham. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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