On Wednesday 9 September 2026, Liverpool play Fulham in the EPL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Fulham +5.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -10000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to host Fulham, the dynamics of recent form suggest an intriguing matchup. Liverpool's home record has faltered lately, with just one win in their last five, while Fulham struggles on the road, managing only a single point from their last five away games. However, the xG metrics paint a more complex picture. Fulham's away average of just 0.2 goals hints at their challenges, yet they’re capable of surprising on the counter. Liverpool has averaged 1.8 goals at home, but with a concerning 1.8 xG against them, Fulham's defense might just hold firm. Given the handicap of 5.5, betting on Fulham to cover this line seems prudent, especially as Liverpool's attack hasn’t been firing on all cylinders. If Fulham can keep it tight, a narrow defeat is on the cards, making this wager a smart play.
Liverpool vs Fulham: Fulham +4.5 Goal Handicap (-3333)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to host Fulham, recent trends suggest that Fulham can hold their own against a Liverpool side that’s been inconsistent at home. The Reds have managed just one win in their last five home games, with an average of 1.8 goals scored, mirroring the number of goals they’ve conceded. Meanwhile, Fulham's recent away form shows a struggle, but they've tightened up defensively, allowing only 1.4 goals per game in that span. What’s intriguing is Liverpool’s xG. While their attack seems potent, they’ve struggled to convert that into tangible results. Fulham’s defense can capitalize on this inconsistency, especially with Liverpool's erratic home performances that have seen them drop points. Taking Fulham with a 4.5 handicap offers a cushion that could very well pay off as the Cottagers look to frustrate their hosts while finding their footing in this challenging matchup.
Liverpool vs Fulham: Liverpool +1.5 Goal Handicap (-3333)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to face Fulham, the Reds’ home form gives them a significant edge. Despite a slightly rocky start with just one win in their last five, they’ve been creating chances, averaging 14.4 shots per game at Anfield. Fulham, on the other hand, is struggling away from home, managing a mere 0.2 goals per game in their last five outings, with a dismal expected goals (xG) output. Historically, Liverpool has had the upper hand against Fulham, winning two of their last five encounters. The expected goals data hints at Liverpool being capable of scoring at least two, especially considering Fulham's defensive frailties. With the Reds primed to bounce back and capitalize on their attacking prowess, a bet on Liverpool to win by at least two goals seems not just plausible, but likely.
That is how our model reads Liverpool v Fulham. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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