On Tuesday 8 September 2026, Liverpool play Fulham in the EPL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 7.5 Total Goals, priced at -10000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to host Fulham, the narrative around total goals leans heavily towards the "Under" 7.5. Recent form tells an intriguing story; Liverpool's last five home matches have produced an average of just 1.8 goals, while Fulham has struggled away, scoring a meager 0.2 goals per game over their last five outings. Both teams are stumbling through their seasons, with Liverpool's defense tightening up—allowing only 1 goal on average at home recently. Fulham, on the other hand, has found it tough to create meaningful chances, reflected in their low expected goals (xG) metrics. With Liverpool aiming for a much-needed win and Fulham desperate for any points, expect a tactical battle rather than a goal-fest. The odds favor a match that stays well below the lofty total of 7.5, making the under an enticing proposition.
Liverpool vs Fulham: Fulham +5.5 Goal Handicap (-10000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Liverpool faces Fulham on Saturday, we can’t ignore the recent form that suggests this could be a tighter affair than many might anticipate. The Reds have stumbled at Anfield, going 1-3-1 in their last five home matches, averaging just 1.8 goals while allowing the same. Fulham, meanwhile, has struggled on the road, but their last matchup against Liverpool ended in a narrow defeat, showcasing their capacity to hold their own. With Liverpool's xG numbers hovering around a concerning zero over their last five, it’s clear they’re not creating the same chances that once made them formidable. Fulham might be sitting at 0.2 goals away from home, but if they can frustrate Liverpool’s attack and keep the scoreline close, taking a handicap of +5.5 seems enticing. Given the current trends, this bet has the potential to pay off handsomely.
Liverpool vs Fulham: Fulham +4.5 Goal Handicap (-3333)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to host Fulham, the betting landscape is fascinating, particularly with a handicap of 4.5. Liverpool's home form has been shaky, with just one win in their last five matches, averaging a modest 1.8 goals per game. Meanwhile, Fulham has struggled away, but their last five encounters with Liverpool have shown they can compete, holding a record of 1-2-2. What’s telling here is Fulham’s recent xG numbers; despite a lackluster offense, they’ve been solid defensively, conceding just 1.4 goals per game on the road. Liverpool's attacking woes and Fulham's ability to grind out results suggest they can keep the scoreline tighter than expected. With a substantial implied probability favoring Fulham at this handicap, it feels like a smart play in what could be a tighter contest than the odds suggest.
That is how our model reads Liverpool v Fulham. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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