On Friday 11 September 2026, Liverpool play Fulham in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 4.5 Total Goals, priced at -333 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Liverpool vs Fulham: Under 4.5 Total Goals (-333)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Liverpool prepares to host Fulham, the signs are pointing toward a low-scoring affair. Despite their attacking pedigree, the Reds have averaged just 1.8 goals at home in their last five matches, and their defense has allowed an identical average of 1.8 goals. Fulham, on the other hand, has been struggling away, managing a mere 0.2 goals per game on the road lately. Both teams have shown a tendency to create fewer quality chances, with xG figures suggesting a lack of potency in front of goal. Liverpool's last five matches saw them register an average of only 6.2 shots on target, while Fulham's away form exhibits a dismal 2 shots on target per game. With both sides unable to find the back of the net consistently, betting on under 4.5 total goals makes a compelling case in this matchup.

Liverpool vs Fulham: Fulham +1.75 Goal Handicap (-196)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Liverpool prepares to host Fulham, the odds seem to favor the visitors in this intriguing matchup. Liverpool's home form has been shaky, with just one win in their last five at Anfield, and they've struggled to convert chances, averaging only 1.8 goals while allowing the same to opponents. Fulham, despite a challenging away record, has shown resilience against Liverpool historically, posting a 2-2-1 record in their last five encounters. What stands out is Fulham's ability to keep games tight, especially against stronger teams. With Liverpool’s recent xG stats reflecting a lack of finishing prowess, Fulham's defense could hold firm. This makes the handicap of 1.75 quite tempting; they might just edge past that line. Given Liverpool’s vulnerabilities and Fulham's potential to frustrate, going for Fulham +1.75 looks like a savvy play as they look to capitalize on the hosts' inconsistencies.

That is how our model reads Liverpool v Fulham. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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