On Sunday 13 September 2026, Leeds United play Crystal Palace in the EPL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 6.5 Total Goals, priced at -10000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Leeds United prepares to host Crystal Palace, expectations for a high-scoring affair seem misplaced. Recent form paints a picture of a struggling Leeds side, averaging just 0.8 goals over their last five, and they’ve managed only 1.6 at home. Meanwhile, Palace's away tally isn’t much better, with only one goal per game recently. Both teams have been tight defensively, with Leeds allowing just 0.4 goals at home and Palace conceding 2.4 on the road. The absence of significant xG numbers, combined with Leeds’ recent home matches averaging just 1.6 total goals, suggests a low-scoring clash is on the horizon. With such a conservative attacking output from both sides, betting on the ‘Under 6.5’ total goals seems not just reasonable, but almost a foregone conclusion. Expect a tactical battle rather than a goal fest this Sunday.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace +3.5 Goal Handicap (-5000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Leeds United welcomes Crystal Palace this Sunday, the stats paint a telling picture. Leeds has struggled recently, with a home record yielding just two wins in five matches, averaging a meager 0.8 goals per game. Their expected goals (xG) reflect this struggle, showing no signs of a potent attack. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace, despite their own ups and downs, has managed to churn out a more consistent performance, netting an average of 1.4 goals in their last five outings. When considering their head-to-head record, Palace stands slightly ahead, with a 2-2-1 trend against Leeds in the last five encounters. With Leeds averaging only 0.4 goals conceded at home, and Palace's ability to score away, betting on Crystal Palace to cover the 3.5 handicap feels like a smart choice. Their recent form suggests they are well-positioned to capitalize on Leeds' ongoing struggles.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: Leeds United +2.5 Goal Handicap (-5000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
When Leeds United takes on Crystal Palace, the stats tell a compelling story favoring the home side. Leeds has shown resilience at Elland Road, boasting a solid home record with two wins in their last five and a goal-scoring average of 1.6 per game at home. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace has struggled on the road, managing just one win in their last five away matches and conceding an average of 2.4 goals. Leeds' recent form suggests they can impose their game, generating 13.6 shots per home game, which could translate into more goals against a Palace defense that has been vulnerable. With an implied probability of nearly 92% for Leeds to cover a 2.5 handicap, it’s hard to ignore the momentum they carry at home against a Palace side that often falters away from Selhurst Park. Expect Leeds to assert their dominance and deliver a decisive win.
That is how our model reads Leeds United v Crystal Palace. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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