On Sunday 13 September 2026, Leeds United play Crystal Palace in the EPL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 6.5 Total Goals, priced at -10000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Leeds United prepares to host Crystal Palace, the evidence strongly points towards a low-scoring affair. Leeds has averaged a meager 0.8 goals per game in their last five matches, while Palace’s away form is hardly prolific, managing just one goal per game on the road. Both teams have struggled to convert chances, reflected in their xG stats, which sit at a stark zero for each side in recent outings. With Leeds' home defense tightening up—allowing just 0.4 goals in their last five home games—the stage is set for a defensive showdown. Palace, too, has been porous defensively, conceding 2.4 goals away, but given their tendency to stifle games, expect a tactical battle that keeps the scoreline low. The under 6.5 goals market captures this narrative perfectly, making it a compelling choice as these teams clash.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace +3.5 Goal Handicap (-5000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Leeds United prepare to face Crystal Palace, the stats paint a compelling picture favoring the visitors. Leeds have struggled offensively, averaging just 0.8 goals per game over their last five, while their defense has conceded 1.0 goals on average. Crystal Palace, on the other hand, have shown resilience despite a rocky away record, manifesting an average of 1.4 goals scored in their recent outings. Their last five matchups against Leeds have produced mixed results, but they know how to exploit defensive frailties. With Leeds averaging a concerning 0 xG and the Eagles boasting a slightly healthier attacking output, it’s reasonable to expect Palace to clear the 3.5 goal handicap. The current trends suggest Palace can capitalize on Leeds' struggles, making this bet an enticing opportunity for those looking to back the away side.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: Under 5.5 Total Goals (-3333)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
When Leeds United welcomes Crystal Palace, the expectation of a goal-fest feels misplaced. Both teams are in a rough patch offensively; Leeds has averaged just 0.8 goals in their last five outings, while Palace has managed only 1.4. The stats paint a grim picture—Leeds' home average is even lower at 1.6 goals, and they’ve only conceded 0.4 at home recently. Defensively, both sides have tightened up. Leeds’ last five saw them surrender a mere 1 goal on average at home, while Palace has leaked 2.4 away. With both teams struggling to create clear-cut chances—exemplified by their xG numbers hovering around zero—this match screams low-scoring. Betting on under 5.5 goals seems not just wise; it aligns perfectly with the recent trend of tightly contested affairs, making it an enticing choice for Sunday’s clash.
That is how our model reads Leeds United v Crystal Palace. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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