Steven Kwan (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-159)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Guardians prepare to host the Twins, all eyes will be on Steven Kwan, but the under on his total bases seems like the smarter play. Kwan has been a steady presence in Cleveland's lineup, yet he’s faced some challenges against left-handed pitching, and today he’ll be up against Minnesota’s southpaw, who has been particularly tough on lefties. Kwan’s recent form has been a bit streaky, with fewer than two total bases in several matchups against quality pitching. The Twins' bullpen has been sharp as well, boasting a low ERA and an ability to stifle opposing hitters late in games. With the Guardians’ reliance on their top order to generate offense, Kwan might find himself limited in opportunities to drive the ball. Given the circumstances, betting the under on Kwan’s total bases feels like a savvy move in this matchup.

Kody Clemens (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-175)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Guardians take on the Twins, Kody Clemens finds himself in a challenging spot at the plate. While he’s shown flashes of potential this season, he’s been held to under 1.5 total bases in several recent games, especially against right-handed pitchers, where he’s batting just .220. The Twins’ starter, a crafty righty, has kept opposing hitters off balance, boasting a strong strikeout rate that could easily stifle Clemens’ chances of getting those extra bases. Moreover, Minnesota’s bullpen has been particularly adept at closing games, further complicating any late-inning heroics from Clemens. Given that the model is predicting an outcome closer to 1.06 total bases, betting on the under seems prudent. With the Guardians’ recent struggles to generate consistent offense, it’s hard to envision Clemens breaking through against this formidable pitching matchup. Look for him to stay under that 1.5 mark in this pivotal game.

Ryan Jeffers (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-175)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Guardians host the Twins on July 22, Ryan Jeffers finds himself in a challenging spot at the plate. Cleveland's pitching staff has been formidable at Progressive Field, boasting a stingy 3.80 ERA at home. With their bullpen in particular solidifying late-game situations, power hitters like Jeffers could find it tough to find gaps. Moreover, the Guardians' defense is not just about the pitching; they rank among the top in the league in fielding percentage, enhancing their ability to limit extra-base hits. Jeffers has shown streaky form lately, and with the Twins’ lineup struggling against right-handed pitchers like the Guardians’ starter, this could limit his opportunities. Given he’s averaging just over a single total base per game this season, betting on him staying under 1.5 total bases aligns well with recent trends. Expect a tight contest where Jeffers might just be contained.

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