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The latest Bet Better model pick for Trevor Larnach is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 63%, for a model edge of +25.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 8:01AM UTC
MLB

Trevor Larnach

MIN

+25.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -169 (1.59)
+25.8% Edge
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs
Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 12:05AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
88.7%
Implied Probability
62.9%
Model Edge
+25.8%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases88.7%—62.9%1.13+25.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Trevor Larnach (MIN) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-169)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Cubs welcome the Twins to Wrigley Field, all eyes will be on Trevor Larnach, but the under on his total bases might just be the savvy play. Larnach has been in a bit of a funk lately, struggling against right-handers like Cubs’ Marcus Stroman, who boasts a solid 2.85 ERA at home. The Cubs’ pitching staff has kept opposing hitters in check, and Stroman’s ability to command the zone could stifle Larnach’s bat. Looking at Larnach’s recent numbers, he’s averaged just 0.5 total bases over his last few games, and with the Cubs' defense tightening up, getting to 1.5 might be a stretch. With the Cubs playing meaningful baseball and looking to continue their playoff push, expect a low-scoring affair that doesn’t play into Larnach’s hands. The smart money is on the under here as he likely falls short of that total.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Batter - Total BasesUpcoming vs CHCU 1.5 -169+25.8% edge
75%hit L10
Streak3

Trevor Larnach MLB total bases: cleared under 1.5 in 75% of the last 10 games vs CHC. Current line U 1.5 at -169 (+25.8% model edge).

Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
75%hit L10
Streak2
O 0.575%
O 1.525%

Trevor Larnach MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 75% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
75%hit L10
Streak2
O 0.575%
O 1.525%

Trevor Larnach MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 75% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
75%hit L10
Streak2
O 0.575%

Trevor Larnach MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 75% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.4avg walks · L5

Trevor Larnach MLB walks: averaging 0.4 walks over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Jun 26 Minnesota Twins @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -345 ✓ HIT
21 Jun 26 Minnesota Twins @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Singles 1.5 Under -588 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Trevor Larnach (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Trevor Larnach is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +25.8% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs on Saturday 18 July at Wrigley Field, Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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