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The latest Bet Better model pick for Joe Ryan is Under 6.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On the Pitcher - Strikeouts market the model assigns a model win probability of 68%, versus the book's implied 64%, for a model edge of +3.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
MLB

Joe Ryan

MIN

+3.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Under 6.5 -179 (1.56)
+3.6% Edge
Minnesota Twins @ Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Fri 26 Sep, 10:45PM
Confirmed probable starter
Probable SP vs MIN @ CLE
updated Jul 20, 10:40PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
67.7%
Implied Probability
64.1%
Model Edge
+3.6%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts67.7%—64.1%1.48+3.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Joe Ryan (MIN) Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-179)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Joe Ryan's recent performance data indicates that betting under 6.5 for pitcher strikeouts is a solid choice. In his last five games, Ryan's overall strikeout average is 5.6, which is below the line set at 6.5. This trend is even more pronounced when considering his away game statistics, with an average of 4.8 strikeouts. Furthermore, his innings pitched (IP) averages, both overall (5.4) and away (5), suggest that he's not on the mound long enough to achieve more than 6.5 strikeouts. His outs average also supports this, with 16.2 overall and 15 in away games. Additionally, Ryan's current away hit streak is at four games, further solidifying the likelihood of him not exceeding the line. Therefore, based on these consistent performance trends, the under 6.5 bet for Ryan's strikeouts is statistically sound.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak5L2095%
O 3.590%
O 4.580%
O 5.560%
O 6.530%
O 7.520%

Joe Ryan MLB strikeouts: cleared over 3.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak2L2085%
O 2.580%
O 3.550%
O 4.550%
O 5.530%
O 6.520%
O 7.510%

Joe Ryan MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
Streak2L2060%
O 0.550%
O 1.530%
O 2.520%

Joe Ryan MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
2.4avg earned runs · L5

Joe Ryan MLB earned runs: averaging 2.4 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
16.2avg outs · L5
L2060%

Joe Ryan MLB outs: averaging 16.2 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Joe Ryan (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Joe Ryan is Under 6.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.6% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies on Friday 26 September at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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