Mike Gesicki (CIN) Over 24.5 Player reception yds alternate (+116)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Mike Gesicki to go Over 24.5 reception yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is supported by several key statistical insights. Over his last five games, Gesicki has averaged 30.2 receiving yards, exceeding the 24.5 mark in three of those contests. His overall hit rate of 60% (3/5) during this period further suggests a favorable trend. While his recent home performance has been less impressive (1/3 hit rate), he has shown the capability to produce in favorable matchups, as evidenced by a 40% hit rate at home over the last 10 games. The Bengals' defense has allowed 250+ passing yards in multiple games this season, increasing the likelihood of Gesicki being targeted effectively. With a model edge of 0.20 and a historical performance indicating potential upside, the bet on Gesicki to exceed 24.5 reception yards is statistically justified.

Joe Burrow (CIN) Under 6.5 Rushing Yards (-104)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Joe Burrow to go Under 6.5 rushing yards presents a solid opportunity based on recent statistical trends. Over his last five games, Burrow has averaged just 5.4 rushing yards, hitting the Under in four out of five contests. At home, he has hit the Under in three of five games, demonstrating a consistent trend toward limited rushing output. Moreover, Burrow's overall hit rate for the Under in rushing yards stands at 54.3%, with a slightly lower home hit rate of 52.9% over the past 20 games, indicating a propensity to stay below the threshold. Additionally, his current hit streak is at zero, suggesting a regression from previous performances where he has rushed for minimal yards. Given these statistics and the model edge of 0.184, betting on Burrow to stay Under 6.5 rushing yards is a favorable play in this matchup against the Buccaneers.

Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) Over 86.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Ja'Marr Chase to go Over 86.5 receiving yards is supported by strong statistical performance and favorable trends. In his last five games, Chase averaged 91 yards, hitting the Over in 3 of those matchups. At home, he has been particularly effective, hitting the Over in 4 out of his last 5 games, with a home hit rate of 90% over the last 10 games (9/10). The Bengals' offense aligns well against the Buccaneers' defense, which has struggled to contain top receivers, making this a favorable matchup. Moreover, Chase is currently on a hit streak, having surpassed 86.5 yards in his last game. The model indicates a positive edge of 0.176, suggesting value in this line. Given his recent performance and consistent ability to exceed this threshold, backing Chase for Over 86.5 receiving yards appears statistically sound.

Unlock the rest of this one

You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.

Unlock the full article