On Saturday 26 September 2026, Bournemouth play Sunderland in the EPL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Both Teams To Score: No, priced at +120 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
As Bournemouth prepares to host Sunderland, the stats tell an intriguing tale of defensive resilience. Bournemouth has struggled to find the net lately, averaging just 1.2 goals over their last five matches, and their xG numbers reflect a stark lack of offensive firepower. In fact, their expected goals have dropped to zero in recent outings. Meanwhile, Sunderland's away form has been similarly uninspiring, yielding only 1.8 goals per game, but they’ve faced tougher defenses that have limited their scoring opportunities. Both teams seem to be struggling to convert chances into goals, with recent matchups suggesting a tendency to cancel each other out. With Bournemouth’s home defense conceding just 1 goal on average, it feels like a stalemate is on the horizon. Therefore, betting on “No” for both teams to score seems a savvy move in this matchup, where attacking prowess is in short supply.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland: Under 4.5 Total Goals (-769)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
As Bournemouth prepares to face Sunderland, the stage is set for a clash that suggests a tight, low-scoring affair. Both teams have struggled to find the back of the net lately; Bournemouth averages just 1.2 goals per game and hasn’t been able to convert their chances effectively, shown by their xG stats hovering around zero. Their last five encounters reflect a trend of defensive solidity, with Sunderland also averaging 1.2 goals but conceding 2 per game during the same stretch. The home side's last five games show a troubling pattern of only 1.4 goals scored at home while allowing just 1.0. With both defenses tightening up and neither side boasting a potent attack, betting on under 4.5 total goals seems like the savvy choice here. Expect a tactical battle, where goals will be at a premium rather than flowing freely.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland: Bournemouth +0 Goal Handicap (-233)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
As Bournemouth prepares to host Sunderland, the Cherries are looking for a turn in fortunes at home, especially after a shaky recent run of 0-3-2. However, they’ve shown resilience with a scoring average of 1.4 goals per game at home, and their last five matches have yielded a solid xG performance, even if the results haven't always reflected it. Sunderland, meanwhile, has struggled away, recording just one win in their last five matches with an average of 1.8 goals conceded. With Bournemouth's attacking metrics suggesting they can breach Sunderland’s defense, the expectation is that they’ll emerge victorious. Historically, while their recent head-to-heads have been tight, the stats lean in Bournemouth's favor, making the handicap of zero a compelling play. The home advantage, coupled with Sunderland's defensive vulnerabilities, sets the stage for Bournemouth to finally secure the three points they desperately seek.
That is how our model reads Bournemouth v Sunderland. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
Unlock the rest of this one
You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.
Unlock the full article