Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Will Hoskin-Elliott is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 65 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 65%, implied 55%, edge +9.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 12, 11:03PM UTC
AFL
Will Hoskin-Elliott
Collingwood
Latest Model Pick
Goals
Over 0.5
-123 (1.81) · $100→$181
+9.5% Edge
Collingwood Magpies
@
Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Mon 9 Jun, 5:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
65 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 64.7% · the book's price implies 55.2% · gap +9.5%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Goals | 64.7% | — | 55.2% | 1.55 | +9.5% |
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Will Hoskin-Elliott (Collingwood) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-123)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Will Hoskin-Elliott is a solid pick to score anytime in the upcoming Melbourne vs. Collingwood clash based on his recent performance and matchup history. With an average of 0.8 goals in his last five away games and facing an opponent where he typically scores 0.6 goals, Hoskin-Elliott has shown consistent goal-scoring ability. His average of 2.4 shots at goal and 45.0% goal accuracy further support his potential to find the back of the net. The model's prediction of 0.8 goals aligns with his recent form, indicating a 9.5% edge for this bet. Considering these factors, placing a bet on Hoskin-Elliott to score anytime seems like a favorable choice.
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Season averages (2024)
Will Hoskin-Elliott averaged 12.5 disposals, 0.9 goals and 4.5 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Melbourne), Will Hoskin-Elliott recorded 8 disposals and 1 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 23 Aug 24 | Melbourne | 8 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 Aug 24 | Brisbane Lions | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 9 Aug 24 | Sydney Swans | 8 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 Aug 24 | Carlton | 20 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| 28 Jul 24 | Richmond | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 20 Jul 24 | Hawthorn | 9 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| 12 Jul 24 | Geelong Cats | 13 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 5 Jul 24 | Essendon | 20 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| 29 Jun 24 | Gold Coast SUNS | 12 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 Jun 24 | North Melbourne | 16 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Will Hoskin-Elliott (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Will Hoskin-Elliott is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.5% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Melbourne Demons on Monday 9 June at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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